Oh !!! This settlement is over with lower closing from the previous settlement. But what about new settlement? Further weakening of economic strengths globally. US is in boiling pot. Free investment money for entire globe is collapsing. In Indian context, we have to go for general elections. Big money has to go out for this reason. Q2 may not be good and lead to further weakening of fundamentals.
But before that a little jump in the markets expected because of high premium in October nifty future. US bail-out package has to work and show some results in US markets. US general elections also play a role in the international economic/stock market trends. No doubt that we are in a bear phase, but if we go short blindly markets will go up and give us sleepless nights. Hence let us wait and watch for the developments nationally/globally and take a decision to short the markets.
Some circles are saying that the bear phase/signal for bull phase will generally be around three years as per 2000-2003 history.
At present the Open Interest developments yesterday can not be read deeply because of the settlement day. Let us just view the high premium in October nifty future & for a development in US bail-out package that our markets may go up. Targets nifty 4220-4300-4550-4650 and ?!?!?!?! That much may not be necessary. Let us view up to 4300-4500 ( two hundred points for trades OK) BUT ALWAYS PLAY WITH A STRICT STOP LOSS. WE HAVE TO BUILD UP PUT OPTIONS. I HAVE TO ADD -- US Dow future is at --150 & our nuclear deal signing was postponed. Shall we get a chance to short? Forget long and trying to go short may be a good idea.
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