TARGET SETTLEMENT.

free stock charts from in.advfn.com

Today's markets are converging to a settlement point taking the nifty 2650 as support and took 100 point rally. A good closing and may lead to further lead even for settlement. As per hourly chart showed above markets may close between parallel line. nifty may be 2690-2860. If markets crosses the parallel lines upward - bullish else bearish.

Down fall continues ???

Yesterday markets turned down the opening steam and lost 2% to close nifty at 2654. Sensex is below 9000. This shows that the fall is still continuing and the rise earlier is just to role over to next month derivatives. If it is  the case markets will have to close at lower levels from now.  This will result that any small rally expected for next month may not be there. As seen from US markets the fresh bail-out package is not boosting the sentiment.   DOW is at a flat close. Nikkei is presently at -100. Don't play to up side as of now. Short next month future and buy this month in the money call for settlement.

 Yesterday's close - 5% = 2521 and future may stay at 2500 level (lower for today???)

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES???

Previous day's trades are just range bound but not at expected rally.  Nifty is just +15 points. Nifty future additions are more = bullish. FII F & O bullish but sold in cash. FM & SEBI statements are showing that some rally may come immediately but after the settlement. US markets are + ve with package of Citi group. This may lead + ve markets around the world tomorrow. If nifty crosses 2860-2880  then markets are bullish else may fall for settlement itself. 

Reversal is part of settlement pressures?

Trading on previous day shows that huge short covering by operators with a view to create good will in the markets.  As per stochastic market is in short term bull phase and it may last for two days. Nifty levels as per hourly chart are that 2750-2800-2880-3000-3150. As the F & O settlement is going on we may not expect a full range of bull run. It may reverse back may be at 2800-2880 and even markets may close at lower levels.  There are sufficient - ve news every day for a major down fall.  

DOWN---DOWN---DOWN...

Yesterday's markets shows that after opening at -5% it has showed some support and closed at nifty 2550. Though stochastic is at low the RSI is still at 45. RSI has to come down before markets goes up. Markets are directing towards 100% retracement to nifty 2250 and may form a double bottom. There RSI may be at a low for a good reversal of markets. Hence, markets may trade in green for December series for first 2 weeks. Target may be nifty 2850. As of now one can buy 2300 put even today. If markets goes up in F&O settlement pressures before touching new low one can check for put buying for this series settlement. Means, try for buying puts even on Tuesday. Expected closing for this series : if markets take double bottom then closing at nifty 2500 (bottom to top) else 2300 (top to bottom). Nifty OI + means shorts & FII F&O OI -ve means shorts. US down & Global down. Then what next down to down down.

Double bottom?

Markets are at severe pressure of exit and may test the new lows immediately . If Nifty breaks 2510 Parabolic SAR reverses and say to short in the daily charts and gives profit also. Hence, one can short and wait. All news for a rally is false and we can trade by the reality of chart formations. Stochastics is showing for at least one day fall. At present the US markets are at steep fall leading to further steep fall in all other markets. Better not to trade on long side even if there is a chance of profit. One can first buy a put and if markets take support at 2510 level and crosses 2550 then exit in the put. If 61.8 % retracement crosses i e nifty already breached the level of 2630 then the target may be 100% i e ., 2250.

Yesterday's trading shows that the fall continues and as per stochastics markets may fall for another one day or two. But later we may expect at least 200 points rally in nifty even for the sake of settlement. In reliance some buying is seen and that may precipitate in one day. Any how one may exit shorts and concentrate in calls. Down levels nifty 2630-2515. Resistance 2860-2950. Some cooking is going on in RBI for measures. Even in US any thing good news comes out regarding bail out package the rallies may be in the coming weeks. May be December first half may be in greenish arena?

Range bound + Stock exit

As we observe the market trend in these days priority is given for exit of positions by big players. But as was expected there was no action to support the market from any of our DIIs. Every one knows that our economy is also in recession. Then who will buy now?. As traders we are just observing the markets otherwise we also won't see the market for at least one year. Horrifying news is coming every day. O K.

Now observe the market if nifty goes + ve maximum range may be 2950 (as per swing in the falling channel on the daily/hourly charts). If markets are in red exit longs & short nifty. Strong support may come at nifty 2630.

As per Reliance share if this is above 1200 next 1300 & markets will go up to 2950 if reliance is -ve every thing is negative.
(Pl view the Open Interest changes link on the right side for clear oi changes and comments.)

EVENT EFFECT? ! ?

Yesterday markets continued their journey to downside. O K. Now the G20 international meet is going on and the news from this meet will influence the markets for the next week. Hence, it is better not to have any positions to downside  to the end of the day and just go by  intraday charts for the next week. As we are at down levels from the previous week we may expect a rise in the next week. The resistances are nifty 2970-3150-3240. Support levels nifty 2750-2630-new low. Monday & Tuesday should be +ve for the reversal of markets next week. If markets are +ve next day one can  buy nifty calls 3400.

Reliance Open interest is at high addition at lower levels which may lead the markets to +ve side for the next week.

continues...

Yesterday's trades shows that the fall continues. If there is any bullishness further the markets should have crossed the nifty 3240 level by this time but broken down the strong level of nifty 2860 on closing basis. Now the journey is to down side and it is being supported by the weak global cues. Now US markets -5% & Asian markets - ve. Then we have to buy even 2500 puts but for sure profit sake one may buy only 2700 puts even in small intra day rally. FII data F & O -ve and cash Market - ve. Call writing at 2900 and puts Open interest decrease at all levels.

On previous day US markets were + 6% . Asian markets are also in + ve Hence our markets may also in + ve but one can go short after 12 or 1 pm. Better not to go long. If any one wants to trade on long just go by intra day charts with strict stop loss.

MARKETS TO NEW LOWS ????

As expected markets were drifted downward. Nifty sheds 200+ i.e., more than the previous day's rise. It clearly shows that the swing reversal from 2860 nifty was weeded out before reaching the previous peak of nifty 3240.  This means that the retracement of 1000 points relief rally continues now & nifty may come down continuously 2860-2750-2630.  Later if nothing is developed the fall may continues and creates new low in this drifting itself.  Let us see what happens.  FII data and Nifty open interest shows no change to bullishness. One can have shorts and even can add after market breaks 2860-2800 by buying 2500 puts. 

Sensex chart clearly shows the continuation of fall. Reliance is also on the clear down side which is the driving force of the markets.

CHINA SUPPORT

Yesterday global markets were on the steam of stimulus package that was declared by China. A very good rise in Indian markets also. Nifty is at 3148 a +175 points. Very huge addition 13 lacks of nifty future at the end of the day trades. (A  -ve feeling  as the addition is at high levels). FII s were not on selling side. We have seen from US and Asian markets that the steam for today may not sustain. If markets open at high level one may book profits and if markets are in red one can buy 3000 put. 

On Monday if nifty crosses 3100 up side it will go 3250-3500 also but if it goes to red i.e., below 2973 a steep fall below 2500 is expected. A good chance for a trader on both sides. up side 150 points minimum and down side 400 + +.  As of now markets are expected to open in green for the next day then one can go short and put a stop loss 3100.

FALL FOLLOWS...

Yesterday's market is just a continuation of the swing reversal. But in the end game operators made jerks to the market by bringing the nifty to green and hitting once again. I feel that markets will fall now itself and continues down. Some big players reversed their positions in the last hour trades. Continue your positions to down side. Let us wait and watch at support levels as per retracement and look for steep fall in call prices. Happy downtown journey. 

Swing reversal ?? ?? ???

Markets had a swing reversal at nifty 3240 range and closed at nifty 2995 a -5%. One might have taken some thing to down side. O K. One point is that our operators have taken the markets to the exact resistance level to the event of US Pres election result and reversed the positions. Otherwise why that much of speed in the relief rally? O K. As a trader every thing is not necessary except the catching of swing reversal.

If we consider the swing reversal of markets from 2250 to 3250 a 1000 points rally in nifty which may retrace back 1/3 or 1/2 or 2/3. that is all. Exact values are noted in the chart. Try to observe caution at the levels and book profits accordingly.

FII s are not on down side as of now. Hence, we may not expect to brake the bottom in this month. One has to check for call buying on some day and markets may be in the range bound and this settlement may finish at 3000 +/- 200 points.
SUPPORT LEVELS 2860 -2750 -2630 where one has to check and book profits on shorts and go for calls may be 3200 but markets may not cross this level. Only for trading.

Election effect

Yesterday markets recovered in last hour trades and closed high nifty at 3142 +98 pts. Huge build up in nifty future and FIIs were still long in futures. But in this cash markets FII & DII both sold??? Today all the markets are celebrating the US election eve and all are and will be in green. Our markets are nearing a strong resistance level ie., nifty 3200-3250. Stochastics is at over bought zone. FM efforts with the PSU banks are good and lending rates are to come down soon. But the problem of liquidity will persists. So this greenish light in the entire world may stay for this week. If markets crosses nifty above 3250, this month markets may not fall below 3000. Hence one has to go for puts at 3000 levels only Let us see what happens. FII & other DII selling was at low pace now and it may continue at any time.

Many negatiaves fundamentally.

Yesterday's trading is a reaction for RBI's actions. O K. PM's meeting with industrialists reveal that our PM asked not to go for lay-offs in the industry. Job losses are on and increasing in India too. Foreign returns are increasing with no immediate provision of jobs in India. Many many and many indications that we are at dangerous situation. In this situation what to do as an investor: One has to wait for clear turn around in the industry which may not occur in the forthcoming 2 years. If some one is having stock holding this is the best time to off load even at these rates. Else on has to short nifty one lot and role over for 3 to 6 months which may fetch 1000 points (50 x 1000 = 50000 profit). As a trader one has to short nifty at nifty 3050 + + levels. Steam may be over today itself??? SGX nifty is not so bullish as of now. FII o i is showing that they were not yet turned bearish and it may take one or two days. One can accumulate puts at 2900. In this settlement till now we have seen bullish movements then the bearnish movements may stay for more than 2 weeks. Markets must touch at lease nifty 2700 immediately.

GREENISH UNCERTAINTIES

Trading on previous day suggests that bounce back rally is at good pace with the news of RBI actions. That was over now. Our Regulators, FM and PM are all at work for providing liquidity in to the  monetary system. US markets are showing that the slow rise  may be up to  completion of the elections. Hence, our markets may rally up to wednesday first hour. Nifty resistance levels 3050-3200.

Observations: 1. In a discussion in CNBC one person expressed that another 15 to 30 billion dollars may go out in this month. 2. Job cuts are strongly expected in India Inc. 3. The intensity problem around the world was still not understood. 4. IMF says that money required for the struggling economies of India & China. 5. Citi bank declared Q3 losses in credit card defaulters account (Another tip of the IceBerg.). 6. FCCB conversions by India inc for this month are also more, which is burdensome due to adverse markets & dollar rate. 7. NDTV shows that Kamath, concerned over the interest rates in 'high teens'  warns of Corporate defaults beginning with small and medium enterprises couldn’t be ruled out. As per the expressed few items of news we are frightened about stock markets. Then what is the real picture ? Have a look at downside trades.