Looks bullish amidsts global weakness????

Technically markets will go to bullish after crossing nifty 2935. Yesterday's trades shows that markets may go up in the next week. As the situation is not good in both the ways one may not have positional trades for one week at least.

See from the parallel lines on the chart. market has crossed the lower line and hence has to go up to the higher line nifty 2935. MACD +ve and Stochastic shows market has to go up one to two days. Open interest data is very bullish with +ve addition in Reliance and nifty. Very high put writing. If goes up and closes above 2935 this level or 2830 will become temporary support. Then markets will go very highly bullish. Else the lower levels for exit is 2830 and reverse. Except the Global cues every thing is positive.

Rumors Vs Reality:

Very strong rumors are in the markets that markets will fall drastically to new lows from next Friday and also markets will be 13000 sensex around march this year. Which will be correct. See technically and trade intra day else trade by stochastic over bought/ over sold with strict stop loss.

downward bias.

Yesterday markets were weak and closed at 2821.  But now the global cues are all - ve. Today's trade has to lead the direction. 2800 puts added 16 lacks Vs 2900 calls added 10 lacks 2800 calls 8 lacks. This heavy put addition shows that markets have to jump up but may be even after one week.  A confusing aspect.  But trade down side now with stop loss levels as previous days levels.  Short stop loss 2875.

Rise to Rise or.....

A continuation journey to up side that to in a settlement time. Markets may turn to further bullish if nifty crosses 2950 also. Then we may not see fall immediately but a rise up to 3250-3500-3700-3800.  Will it be?. The retracement level for nifty is 2904-2950-3140. Added advantage is reduction of fuel prices.

very good swing...

As expected nifty jumped up and closed at 2771.  Now, as the swing is more than expected in one day the upper levels are nifty 2810-2826-2870.  If, nifty crosses 2830 and closes in good way one may expect market on Friday too in green up to 2930-2950 zone just to sqeeze the shorts in the February series entered in previous week.  Weak hands will suffer then markets will fall... fall....fall...

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES....

Now the markets are just sliding down and have to test new low. But as we are nearing settlement there is a possibility of little rise and that may be up to nifty 2700-2750-2800. If markets are not to red zone for the next day one may gamble with calls 2750 for multiple profits. The support for this view may be enhanced from Dow's trades on next Monday. But if markets crosses nifty 2830- we may expect further rise and that may not happen. One can short nifty at 2800 and take a call for hedging in the next month.  

More worries to come..But

Nifty falls 100 pts yesterday and closed at 2736. Put writing more than call writing. The fall is still there but as the Global cues are + ve (even though the bad news about bank of america & citi bank), fall may be delayed. US president elect Obama's take over will be a good signal for news to keep the markets in green for some time. Hence, in the coming three days markets may be in Green???.

May be down side in nifty at 2500. A bounce we have to expect at this level.

A pause in fall???

Today markets recovered well by taking support nifty 2780 at 2.30 pm and closed bullish at nifty 2835, just above one resistance zone 2800-2830. F & O data nifty future -4.9 lac. 2800Call + 1.5 lac 3000 call +2.58 lac 2700put +5.5 lac 2800 put +5.98 lac and no major activity at other options in nifty future. FII data NF short and Stocks futures long for many days. Cash FII + 90 cr. Now market has to target for retracement levels 2883 -2933 - 2983.

But as per the Global cues FTSE & DOW are trading -5% & -3% now. If we see any flat closing in dow tomorrow our markets may not fall immemdiately else if the Global cues are very weak our markets will drift immediately and we may sure of touching new lows in this month itself.

RALLY REVERSED BECAUSE OF SATYAM EPISODE?

While our markets were trying to cross to bull trend at nifty 3150 the satyam episode was developed and then the markets reversed to down side. O K. Otherwise is not necessary. We are just studying the markets to trade and get profits.  Not for any thing.  

From nifty 3141 markets were getting down means the further down trend took momentum. Also, the nifty 2813 was broken.  Now, we may see some pull back in this down trend just because of Govt's package to be given to Satyam or reduction of fuel prices.  This pull back may be up to 2900-2950.  Bull rally will be studied only after one weekly closing should be above previous one. Presently trade intraday based on day charts and take a put only after markets starts drifting from nifty 2950-2900. But there is the  posibility  to create a new low. 

FII positions are balanced now???.  If markets trade down to up today go long for two days. May be by buying 2900 calls.

ok

Yesterday's correction in the 2nd half shows that nifty is getting stronger for going up further.  Though some stocks were cleared off the longs and accumulated shorts the trend will remain long side till nifty breaks 3050 i e., bottom of the week.  If markets move long and crosses nifty 3240 one may see very huge spurt in the markets long side and no one can stop any one from buying stocks for delevery.  This will leads a considerable correction in the third week but markets will close above 3240 for this month.

bulls to be stronger...

Now our markets are taking a bullish view from all our technical analysts if nifty crosses 3240 that may happen today????. We may expect a correction from3240-3280 to 3050 levels in this week. F&O data and FII data is + ve. But SCO index is 96.13 which is showing that we are near correction levels. 3100 put 12.8 lac writing?? This shows markets may go up to 3300 levels today /tomorrow.Any how one may book profits today/tomorrow morning and take a short 3000put. 

BULLISH...

Yes. Nifty crossed 3000 and closed at 3033 + 74.

FII data + ve. F & O data nifty 6.4 lac addition. Stocks futures in some stocks short covering was observed. 3000 ce -1.6 lac ; 3300ce + 4.4 lac ; 2800pe2.3 lac ; 2900pe3.9 lac ; 3000pe3.9 lac ; 3100pe1.6 lac ; reliance 1200pe + 24000.

Today's news in BS paper is bullish by writing about Govt's preparation for spending of one lacks crore is also a sign for bull moves. New mechanism for financing NBFCs is to start by Govt/RBI.

Hence, the run will continue to up side with resistance near 3300. Stop loss nifty 2937, Reliance 1200. Targets nifty 3060-3160-3200-3300.

WISH YOU A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR

May the new year results in accurate forecast in market swings and to bring 99% successful trades. I wish you all a very very very happy and prosperous new year 2009. Let us have a very good money management from this year onwards. The markets are at a just a strong resistance nifty 3000, hence it showed a small correction. But the short/medium term may be to up side.  One may try to hold calls up to 2900 nifty down side. Upper level expectations are still holds good.