28-8-2009 trading, the first day of the new settlement, shows that with a small intra-day jerk nifty closed strongly above yearly high 4732 +44 points.

• FII data not yet fully supportive to this with volume build up in F&O.

• The nifty future addition of 13 lakh and option writings are showing positiveness.
• US markets are weak to flat. Global cues may be weak to flat on Monday.
• All markets are ready to fall and to enter fresh bear run led by Shanghai this time.
• Sensex has not yet crossed 16000 mark.
• Though it is strong enough to believe the bullishness one has to be cautious until nifty to cross 4780.
• Volume buildup in F&O by FIIs that may happen on Monday/Tuesday otherwise cannot believe this bull run and one may buy 4300 puts for this month. (Target may be below 4300)
• Bullish Nifty target will be 5000-5100. The technical indicators are also not yet showing reversal.

Be cautious until nifty to cross 4780

GOOD GREEN GOING.

The settlement trading yesterday of nifty shows that bullishness prevailed further though the reports of RBI/FM/Drought, etc. and nifty closed at 4688 +7 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings are all shows green going further. US markets re bounce from red and today's Asian markets green, SGX positiveness all shows the same.

Now, technical indicators are bullish but for the breakout of resistance level of 4731 nifty and that may happen today. The target for nifty in this month is 400 positive points with intermediate corrections. All the corrections are up to 4500 -4600 only. Happy new settlement to you all. There may not be major fall in this settlement please.

settlement pressures..

25-8-2009 trading shows that as expected the markets took a dip but rises well to close nifty at 4659 +16 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings shows that markets will be bullish further. US and Global markets are Mixed as Shanghai is in red again. SGX nifty is in +ve as of now.

Over all view: We are nearing the peak level of 4720 and markets are facing resistance once again (divergence in one hour charts and continuation of fall in Shanghai). But as per option writings markets should close above 4600 and below 4700 for this month. Option buildup in next month series shows that the range is between nifty 4500-5000 (both will be reached). The flow of IPOs shows that markets will rise further.

Hence, the trading on Friday is most important for the trend setting. It is better to have hedging for these three days for the longs/shorts. Dow may corrects for further two days please....

24-8-2009 trading shows that markets opened gap up and continued to close at nifty 4643+114 points. FII data more buys, F&O data long side buildup , more put option writing are showing bullishness and it will continue further. Though there may be some pressure during the days of settlement closing markets will rise well. Huge put 4500-4600 writing shows that settlement closing will be above 4600 and below 4700.

Global cues are that Dow rise was arrested and Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is +ve as of now.

Over all view: If for the sake of settlement markets comes below 4600 buy calls of next month. We can expect bullishness in the first week of next month series.

21-8-2009 trading shows that markets took support at nifty 4400 and closed 4528 +75 points. A good 125 points intra day rise. Dow closed at 10 month's high. FII data, F&O data, Option writings are all showing bullishness to be continued in the coming week. Hence, one may expect a breakout of nifty 4730 in the near future. Don't short in the coming weeks. Upper targets of 5000-5200 may be achieved in the next month.

I continue the blogging intra day through twitter which is on the right side of the page.

20-8-2009 trading shows that markets are preparing to the settlement closure. Nifty in this week traded up and down alternatively and closed at 4453. As seen from FII trading they sold in cash, more buying in index and stock futures. F&O data seen in shifting of nifty futures to next month, option writing shows range is 4500-4400-4300 only. Global cues are US +ve, Asian markets are -ve as of now. SGX nifty is flat.

Over all view: All pressures in international markets were fully absorbed by our operators till now with out breaking nifty 4350. May be the international pressures are over and we are nearing to settlement. Hence, markets are converging to a point that may be 4400-4500. As seen from the weekly chart if we see one lower weekly closing ie., below 4353.45 today we may see a big correction in further weeks. As of today it is only to intra day.

19-8-2009 trading shows that our markets are also corrects now it self before reaching 5000 zone. As the China Markets cues are bearish our markets were felt the same. Nifty closed at 4394-64. FII data is selling in cash, a little selling in index futures but buying in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures added 5 lakhs in Aug series and 12.8 lakhs in Sep series. Option writings 4500 & 4400 calls and 4300 and 4200 puts were added. Huge build up in 4300 put shows markets may at least take support at 4250 range. Now US markets were traded from red to green. Global markets are flat to green. SGX nifty is +30 now.

Over all view: As the markets are at most felt support zone of nifty 4350, one can go long here with stop loss 4350 as more support from our operators is expected here.

18-8-2009 trading created in the minds whether the rise yesterday is just a bounce after major fall or not?. Nifty closed at 4458+71 points. FII sold in cash, index futures but bought in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures is -9 lakhs option writings more puts at 4300-4400. Global cues are just positive. SGX nifty is also +ve.

Over all view: The technical indicators are all showing a fall but markets took support on the trend line. Range bound for today but if markets fall below the nifty 4350/ sensex 15000-14700 we see very big correction up to 12200 sensex. This is the target of rising wedge breakout on the daily charts too. Let us wait for breakout. But rumors in the bazar is that sensex to go up to 19000 in the near term??????

17-8-2009 trading followed the china and lost ground. Nifty closed near to 50 day ema at 4388-192 points. Entire world markets felt the shock. Now, FII data huge selling in cash, little shorts in index futures and stocks futures, F&O data huge build up ie., 20 lakh addition with discount means shorts addition, option writings also huge writings in 4500 calls and even 4400 calls, and huge reduction in 4500 puts and little in 4400 puts but 4300 & 4200 puts were added. Now, DOW was weak, but Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is + 15.

Over all view: As the huge addition in nifty future is worry some and huge call writings, all technical indicators are showing down side the present situation may lead to major fall.

14-8-2009 trading was profit booking after a big rise. Nifty closed at 4580 -25 points. The problem is that nifty future open interest was shed once again about 8 lakhs means no rise in short term?... Addition is required for a continuation of rise of markets. Global markets are all at sliding. FII data, F & O data, options writings are not on greenish side. SGX nifty is at -ve.

Over all view: Nifty short below 4400 and long 4730 for super bearish/bullish. In the mean time only intra day trading.

13-8-2009 trading as expected took huge jump and due to short covering markets closed at 4604+147 points. FII data in cash and futures bullish, F&O data deletion of -14.6 lakh in nifty futures is bullish but the nifty futures should add substantially on Friday for further bullishness. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is +ve.

Over all view: As seen from chart of nifty with fan lines, nifty took support on 50% line (above 50 day ema line) and goes up. The upper level target is 4900 zone may be with in a week. Every one is eager to see the break out of previous high 4730 zone for further bullishness. But I feel this level will be broken on Friday/Monday. Wait with longs up to 4880.

12-8-2009 trading shows that the rising wedge break out target on 30 min chart from 4730 to 4378 was achieved. Markets recovered fully from the morning major fall means bullish view. Nifty closed at 4458-14. FII data sold in cash, more selling in index & stocks futures means -ve view. But F&O nifty oi increase in continuation with previous day's reduction is in +ve view. Option writing is balanced. US DOW in +ve, Global cues +ve, SGX nifty +ve as of now. Downing channel of 30 min candle break out to up side was seen today targeting 4625.

Over all view: As seen from the Global cues, and trading style of the previous two days it is expected that the swing reversal from down side is felt. Fall from nifty 4730 to 4357 is over and markets have to go up. Technical indicators on 30 min, 1 hour charts are reversed but on daily charts one more day is required to precipitate the bullishness.

One can go long buy calls stop loss nifty 4360. Target to up side will be above 4700-...

Retracement level from 30 min chart: 4500-4545-4590-4625.

11-8-2009 trading shows weak opening, taking support at 4400 and a rally up to 4510, but before closing a big correction and finally closed at 4471 in green. FII sold in cash, balanced in index futures, bought in stocks futures, F&O nifty sheds oi, option writings 4300-4400 puts, 4500-4600 calls were added. Global cues weak, SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: Let us see weather markets takes support at 4320-4280 and bounce back. If 4280 broken then entire view will be bearish.

10-8-2009 trading shows that though the markets opened up due to positive global cues corrected further continuously up to nifty 4226 and later bounced back in to positive territory once again. Then again the selling pressure continued which aggravated at the closing time to the lower levels of 4400. Nifty closed at 4438 -44 points down.

FII selling in cash -> weakness, buying in index & stocks futures -> alert, F&O data nifty future added in the down market -> weakness, option writings in addition to 4400 calls addition 4400-4300 puts also added -> balanced. SGX nifty +ve, Global cues : Dow - ve, Asian markets +ve.

Technical indicators are required one more day correction for showing fully oversold signals. Nifty support levels are 4325-4260-4230 and resistance 4576-4588 (5 &10 day sma)

Over all view: As the US fed in at 2 day meeting now, one may expect some reversal on Wednesday onwards in our markets. Wait for reversal signals as of now. Try to buy 4500 call at Rs60/- for very huge gains in this month.

7-8-2009 trading continued the downward journey and nifty closed at 4481-105 points. FII data, F&O data, option writing shows that weakness is building up and it will take some more days to reverse the markets to bullishness. But as of now Global cues and SGX nifty are all showing positiveness. Hence, one may expect a +ve opening of our markets but.... tomorrow/ later we may see further fall to finally reach the oversold zones before markets swings to up side. I expect markets should touch nifty 4320-4220-4230 level support line before a big bounce. Before that all other rises are a part of game!...

Nifty levels : stop loss for the positions are previous day's levels.

6-8-2009 trading gave a very strong resistance impact at 4730 by dipping the market beyond the support trend lines....nifty closed at 4586-109 points. Technical indicators are turned to down side. Fii data, F&O nifty future addition, option writings shows the fall may continue further today. Global cues are -ve and SGX nifty is also -ve as of now. The rising wedge base levels of nifty 4420 on 30 minute chart may be tested in the worst case but there is a chance of bounce in between also. Let us wait and see the support zones. In sensex terms 15300-14900 are support levels. Keep the shorts up to the levels and later one can study ie., on Monday's trading for up side journey.

5-8-2009 trading also disturbed the traders whether to short or long in the markets. Markets corrected very well but closed in green at the end. Nifty is at 4694+14 points. FII data, F&O data nifty future added 9 lakh shares, option writings are showing positive bias. SGX nifty is in red. Global cues are +ve except US markets which were in red yesterday.

Over all view: Technical indicators are still not at fully over bought. Hence there is room for further highs but as we are waiting for good correction over 200 points at a stretch market is not so to give at once. No view for swing reversal immediately, only intra day trading.

4-8-2009 trading as expected faced resistance at 4720 zone at the opening trades and slides down to day low nifty 4640 and closed at 4680 -31 points. FII data a little bit negative, f&o data nifty future sheds 18 lakhs shares dangerous???, option writing nifty range is in between 4600-4700. Global cues are slightly positive, SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: I have expected a small correction at this level to the extent of 150-200 points and bounce of markets to new highs of 5000-5200 in this month. As expected markets are showing resistance at 4720 zone, hence one can go short at this level stop loss 4750 and go long at 4511.

Nifty may take support 4655-4636-4617-4511.

3-8-2009 trading continued its journey to up side and nifty closed at 4711 +75 points. FII data, F& O nifty data, option writings are showing continuation of bullishness. Top end of raising wedge on 30 minutes chart was reached i.e., at 4720.

Demand for 4900-5000 calls was picked up. Now as per sensex market is just at 16000 and may require a little correction at this zone. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is + ve.

Over all view: Longs alert as expected there may be a small correction with in 1 to 2 days before markets start rising to final destination. One may try to book profits in calls with in 2 days. Nifty target to up side is max 100 points before a reversal.

31-7-2009 trading shows that the markets are continuing the rally and nifty closed at 4636+65 points. Though there was slide at the evening the markets pulled up with a jerk. This shows that the targets are at up side as of now. FII data, F&O nifty, option writing shows positiveness. Global cues are not positive but slightly negative. SGX nifty is in - ve as of now. The rising wedge on 30 minute charts target may be 4720 and if falls target may be 4425. But in between there are strong supports at 4600 - 4550 -4500. As of now there were no short side build up and option sales has not yet completed. Hence, as the final target of the month is to up side market will fall one time and tempt the traders to short and then finally markets lead to up side for the targets 4880-5200-etc.

First alert 4615-4580 to down side but do not trade to down side. As markets may correct at 4720-4750 one can wait for down side trade just for 100-150 points fall only.