check for bounce - for a small long target.

Just check all markets.  No need for analysis. Only one look says all.  You cannot say with any words.  Globe is in red. Now, if you are in puts enjoy and just try to come out today.  But do not buy calls and wait for another opportunity.  Else, if markets come down -5% (nifty 3658) or -10% (nifty 3465) buy calls at 200 points above with a small forgettable money.

Our DIIs will come to rescue at some time but we cannot exactly predict.  We have to check on the spot on intra day basis. Investors who held stocks may wait for 2 years.  Traders have to trade for small ranges with strict stop loss. 

Some opportunities will come only in panic but but but the risk is 100%. Do not forget risk. 

UNCERTAINTY???

Previous day markets lost 125 points nifty and closed below 4000 i.e., at 3985 due to doubts about clearance of bailout package by US govt.  Shorts were buildup in nifty & stocks futures.  But a little bit + ve now is only clearance of bailout package in US & Indian Nuclear deal.  How far these will stop FII selling?.  What is the real impact in US markets?.  We have to wait and see the impacts.  

Presently markets may open in +ve as seen in Asian markets.  But one has to go by the intraday trends.  Else, wait and watch; and accumulate puts at higher levels.  For today and tomorrow calls at 4200 may give trading chance. Maximum time frame is only two days.  Monday US markets will be in +ve but on the next day?  ...

SOME USEFUL LINKS ON LEFT SIDE COLUMN

I have given some useful links on the left side column of this web page under titles bullish or bearish: NEWS - FINANCE - ECONOMICAL-STOCKS. These are some links to improve our education on stocks trading/ investment. Kindly go through them

New settlement - hurdles & horizonz

Oh !!! This settlement is over with lower closing from the previous settlement. But what about new settlement? Further weakening of economic strengths globally. US is in boiling pot. Free investment money for entire globe is collapsing. In Indian context, we have to go for general elections. Big money has to go out for this reason. Q2 may not be good and lead to further weakening of fundamentals.
But before that a little jump in the markets expected because of high premium in October nifty future. US bail-out package has to work and show some results in US markets. US general elections also play a role in the international economic/stock market trends. No doubt that we are in a bear phase, but if we go short blindly markets will go up and give us sleepless nights. Hence let us wait and watch for the developments nationally/globally and take a decision to short the markets.
Some circles are saying that the bear phase/signal for bull phase will generally be around three years as per 2000-2003 history.

At present the Open Interest developments yesterday can not be read deeply because of the settlement day. Let us just view the high premium in October nifty future & for a development in US bail-out package that our markets may go up. Targets nifty 4220-4300-4550-4650 and ?!?!?!?! That much may not be necessary. Let us view up to 4300-4500 ( two hundred points for trades OK) BUT ALWAYS PLAY WITH A STRICT STOP LOSS. WE HAVE TO BUILD UP PUT OPTIONS. I HAVE TO ADD -- US Dow future is at --150 & our nuclear deal signing was postponed. Shall we get a chance to short? Forget long and trying to go short may be a good idea.

Settlement pressures...

Settlement pressures may continue further and markets may close in +ve. For next settlement there is a hope of bail out fund of US, may boost sentment.

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES???

Yesterday's trading shows the settlement pressures and weak global cues.  FII data shows more shorts build up and more selling in cash market.  Global cues are also - ve. Not very much specific observations in option writings. But will the support for nifty said yesterday ie., 4080 holds good and markets take a bounce for the sake of settlement. Let us wait and see.  Not to buy aggressive calls and just take an opportunity to buy 4200 calls for this month (may be at single digit price for a target of 20 max) as a trade with small money.  

For detailed options open interest analysis please go through the link given on lift side top i.e., vangara_kris view on open interest changes.

nearing settlement...

As expected markets lost its steam and cooled/swallowed premiums of puts/calls options. Nifty closed at 4223 (-22) sensex at 13995 (-47). FII data + 138 cr in cash, long in index futures 12.5 lakh shares, long in stock futures 17504 contracts. Bullish for the past three days. This may reflect in strong recovery in the next month I week or for this month settlement. Nifty future open interest net addition to the extent of 7.57 lakhs. More writings were seen in September put options at nifty 4200 and below levels than call options. In most of the stock futures addition in shorts for this month and for the next month also were observed. (A contradictory position when compared with FII position buildup ) Dow is now trading at -200 points which may turn -ve Asian markets for the next day.

When we observe the points FII build up + ve on one side (one point here is our PM will be in US for some period for signing the 123 agreement which may be a cue for bullish tradings for some days) and F&O settlement along with -ve global cues on the other side, it may be good enough for trading as buying puts for tomorrow up to closing and go for call options. A bounce may be expected for settlement closing and this may lead to short term rally for the next month first week.
Lower levels for nifty 4170-4080 only. GO LONG at nifty 4080 may be buy calls 4200 below Rs20/-

Now eyes on settlement???

Last two days trading was resulted by major decisions taken by international central banks for coping with the financial tsunami surrounding the world. Ban on short sale in US & timely statement by our FM regarding stability of our banking system triggered short covering even in India. With this double bottom was also formed in the daily charts. OK. Now, the major short covering was over even in international markets??? US govt passed resolution for $800 billion fund for purchase of bad instruments. Over. Then what happens for the further money credit in the international markets. Now that funds are flowing into US. When will it comes to India? May not be at immediate present. In this month FII s were selling in cash markets and investing them debt instruments. We may read it that the FIIs were not repatriating the money now it self because 1. they may expect rupee may appreciate in the immediate future or 2. they may wait for the Indian markets to fall further so as to enter the mid cap at further lower levels. We may read that the investments for debt instruments may not be for short term may be around one year. Hence, we may anticipate a further fall of our markets along with the international markets in the near future.

I feel one may go for exit stocks even at these levels and go for fixed deposits for one year range as being done by some FIIs.

This week our markets may move for settlement. The calls bought by persons like me on Friday should give losses as usual. Panic short covering might also be over. Hence, under any circumstances markets will try for consolidation around these levels and markets may converge in the range NIFTY 4300-4200. +/- 50 points. One may take reverse positions according to market movements. i.e., either put/call which will be cheaper first at 4200/4300 levels. This may be the game for this week. For the next month series one has to wait for this week end trades.

recovery to continue..

Yesterday trades shows that markets opened at lowest level and recovered from there without looking back.  After our FM's statement markets closed in positive territory.  Global cues are + ve. FII data is also + ve in F&O but huge selling in cash.  Presently we may expect the markets will go up to the retracement level 4300 nifty.  we have to wait and see what happens in the US markets. One can stay in longs for some time. International gold trades shows the severe panic in the stock markets. 

Unexpected...

Today markets opened flat and swallowed the option traders and finally settled in deep red. Previous day open interest data was useless and took dramatically to downward. Then what is the use of today's data? shorts were build up in nifty next month 9 lacks & for this month 3 lacks , calls were written more at 4100 level. As the Dow is trading -300 points, tomorrow our markets will have to fall further. Down levels can not be predicted at present. One may take in the money puts or short futures. After all it is financial tsunami covering the entire world. What happens to India's economy can not be predicted. See the seriousness in Gold trades. That is 837 dollars +60 dollars at present. ABRAKA DABRA TOMORROW

A good continuation of support.

Today's trades shows that short covering of index and stock futures continued well. Previous low was just broken and raised to close at 4075. FII data shows that shorts in index future, long in stocks futures and more selling in cash. Nifty Open interest was down by 11 lacks, a good sign of recovery. Global cues are further deteriorated. Dow is just waiting for fed move. As rumors spread the fed may reduce interest rate up to 0.25%. This may lead a little bit boost to the markets. However, -ve factors cannot be wiped out at once. Our F & O option writings shows that more call writing than put. Call writing at nifty 4100 at 8.9 lacks may give us a hint that our markets may not go beyond 4200. If we feel that steam in the markets are over at nifty 4200 one may accumulate shorts/ buy puts may be at the levels 3900-3800 for a remarkable profits.

well supported?

Today' s markets were opened in line with expectation -4% to -6% and closed with a remarkable recovery from the lower levels.  The unexpected support extended by Doemstic institutional investers at lower levels alongwith very strong coverup of shorts in index, stock futures by FII clearly shows that for a short term our markets may bounce upward.  At present US markets were in deep red. This will result the very deep red in global markets for the next day.  But, tomorrow our indian markets,  if opens in red, will bounce further.  This may be certain.  One has to exit puts and  buy calls of 4200, 4300 only.  Nifty upper resistances may be 4150-4250. ( A very small range? This may be studied as per next day's open interest data and fed decision).  As the international economy is at the worst phase/stage, the hanging axe may fall on our markets at any time.  Don't forget to take shorts around nifty 4250 with a target 3800-3600-etc downside in this settlement or in the next settlement.  

GET READY FOR SENSEX 12500 BREAK DOWN ???

Yesterday, as expected sensex & Nifty reached lower levels and closed with more weakness. The IIP numbers released at 12 .00 noon could not induct steam into the markets. FII data, Open Interest data, Option writing data were all shows the possibility of further fall immediately. Crude rates, commodities, metal prices were falling. Dow, global markets shows that further money infusion into the markets could not be possible at present. Hence, the market fall may continue further. The bear phase is taking speed now. The immediate target for Sensex 12500 and Nifty 3800. As we are at sensex 14000, a psychological level there is just a little bit chance the market may take a pause and go 300 points but the speed of fall cannot be ruled out. We can trade stay long in puts and we may add some more at a small rally on monday. Enter and enjoy market fall with put option.
ONE MAY ACCUMULATE PUTS FOR THE OCTOBER MONTH NOW

weakness further? ! ?

Yesterday markets traded downward and closed nifty at 4291. Means the markets came out of trading zone and took downward direction. FII data, nifty open interest, and many heavy weights were all - ve. Commodities and Crude prices were down. But the factors Dow and Asian markets were +ve at present.  Except this, every thing is - ve.  Hence, though our markets open +ve now, there is a chance that Markets may come down even in the next week.  One may hold puts or enter them once again at higher levels. Bulls zone is nifty 4400 and above. Note: US markets +vity can not be sustained though  DOW closes above 12000.

Nifty at the end of the triangle= +/- 300 points

Yesterday markets traded down word and closed at Nifty 4400 ie., exactly at the end point of  the triangle.  FII data, Nifty O I, option writing, Asian markets were all - ve. Dow was just +ve.  The heavy buildup in nifty oi and fii short position in index futures shows that the swing of Nifty from this point towards downside only.  4300 put options will fetch us more profits. If due to any reason markets crosses 4400 up side then go for buying calls 4600. (May not be necessary)

conflicting view

Yesterday markets opened -ve and after half an hour trade markets took support and gone up. But the closing was in red Nifty 4469. -13 pts.( not at all a good ). Global markets shows that all +ves were exhausted?.  FII data is not so directional. Markets are bullish only after nifty crosses 4520 and 4650.  As the markets faces strong resistance at these levels go short by buying 4300 puts. Stop loss nifty 4550. SGX nifty trading at -45 pts Chart shows that market is in range bound and converges at nifty 4400.

Trend to continue...

Bulls dominated the market in a big way with the clearance of the NSG deal for India and markets were closed at Nifty 4482. (But the last one hour trading is a little bit worrying).  FII data is +ve. Option writing shows that markets may take support (puts 4400 9.2 lacks, 4500 6.4 lacks & calls 4600 7.3 lacks, 4700 2.9 lacks ).  Nifty  September future open interest increase is just 29500. This point along with the Reliance stock position shows doubt about the run up of markets. Otherwise Nifty may touch 4915 after crossing 4650. One may exit longs at 4600-4650 and enter latter which may give huge profits as our targets for nifty is up to 4915.  

NEGATIVE NEWS ? ! ?

Negative  news in US markets which may turn - ve to the world economy. 

1. Global equities falling through support :

2. Why commodities may be nearing a turning point

3. Silver state bank postmortum :

4. Fannie, Freddie blind to the bubble :

NSG CLEARS INDIA...

Now NSG clearance for India is a positive sign in the India's history and it boosts the sentiments in the Indian stock market for a short term view. Except this, every parameter of technical analysis is negative. Hence, we have to wait and take a call option on Monday. We may expect a flat/- ve opening of market. But, this long journey may lead nifty up to 4650 this time. But the over all bear market can not be left out of our view. I feel that the point here is not any thing than the operator's action to off load the mid cap/ small cap stocks to the small investors at high levels. The operator knows that the future is very weak for the world economy fundamentally, irreparable. Our nation has to go for general elections, for this big political money has to go out of market. Target for 4600 calls that may give profit up to three times!!!

volatility for option writing ?

As we observe the trading pattern in the new settlement, probably the option writing has not been completed. Build up is still going on. All the Technical Analysts have been forced to project nifty levels to huge long as well as huge bottom. What happens at the end of the month? Where is the way for f & o traders? Today, taking cue from global markets, our markets have fallen to Nifty 4447. Then, we can read that resistance 4520 was strong. Now, sgx nifty was traded low at 4380. Dow below -200, entire global cues in red. FII data fully -ve. One clue is over that we may trade up to 4380, but below that? No indication of puts open interest decrease. If tomorrow, there is any reduction in put open interest that may be an indication for further fall of markets. If not, we have to wait for bull's steam exhaust. May be in the next week.

Hold put options with a stop loss nifty 4400 in the gap down opening for tomorrow.
One cue for bulls is clearance of nuclear deal. Let us wait and see. Until markets comes below nifty4200 sensex 14000 bulls may dominate once again.

BULLS TO CONTINUE

What a speed in rising the markets!!! This shows that nifty to touch and try to cross 4650 but as the - ve news is being developed ie., weak global markets and probable failure of nuclear deal which ultimately lead to national mid term poll may lead the market at gap down. Huge buying in cash by FII a +ve point but long in index futures vs short in stock futures will lead a big fall in the near term. No alternative than to trade with strict stop loss.

BEARS WAIT AND WATCH

Yesterday's trading shows a strong recovery that may prevail for one or two days bullish. Nifty 4349, sensex 14499. Nifty September future -2.5 lack. fii data -ve in futures (stocks & index) and in cash stocks. Nifty put writing 4200 +2.4 lacks 4300 + 5.8 lacks & calls 4300 +5.2 lacks 4400 +5.5 lacks 4500 +2.5 lacks 4600 & 4700 +1.1 lacks. Nifty support 4200 resistance 4380-4450-4520-4650. money flow index may turn bullish, macd to +ve. Bears may wait and watch. Exit puts nifty above 4390 and enter calls 4500. Put open interest still not reduced. At the first instance of the major reduction in puts Open interest one may buy nifty puts 4300. Markets may come at least upto 4200 in this month if 4500 resistance is stronger.

Not so bullish?

Markets on previous day opened +ve as predicted and closed nifty at 4360. FII data -ve in cash stocks, -ve in stocks futures, +ve in index futures. Dow -, Nikkei -, Crude may rise today. As per option writing 4300puts +14 lacks 4200 +7 lacks calls 4300 +4.6, 4400 calls +3.1 lacks 4500 calls +4.7 lacks. Nifty may not go up beyond 4430- 4480 as Global cues develop -ve. One may wait and watch for small reduction in put open interest and buy them at the first sign of the steam in bullls is over. If markets breaks 4330-4300 buy nifty put 4200 immediately and enjoy the fall upto nifty3800.