nifty for 29-10-2009

On previous day nifty continued the downward journey but took support at 4785 and closed at 4826-20 points.

• FII data sold in cash.
• F&O nifty future added 6 lakhs net in the down market.
  
• Option writings: more addition at calls 4800.
  
• US markets down to down (rally may be over and leading to new lows within 1/2 to one year)
  
• Global cues are red severe selling observed in all the markets.
  
• SGX nifty red.

Over all view: The downfall has to be stopped at 4780-4740-4720 or 4600 to 4580 is possible on Friday. But, then there may be some rally in the next week/next settlement. As of now nifty may settle for this settlement at 4800 (+/- 20).

As seen from the next month option build up (which is giving a clue of nifty movement for the new settlement, perfect indications as per the past 4 settlements ) nifty range for the next settlement will be 4800 to 5000 (down side failing which nifty drifts to 4600 only).

For today's trading, as of now try to buy 4900 put or 4700 call at cheaper rate for nifty convergence at 4800. But, if nifty falls on Friday then one may go for calls in the next month.

Wonderful and a big fall of the recent days. The event of RBI cr policy made this. But the market fall was beyond 50 day ema.

• Now, the target for nifty is 4780-4740.

Up side bounce can be expected from the mid day or end of the day for next day's f&o settlement.

nifty for 27-10-09 trading

As per previous day's trading nifty closed at 4971-26 points.

• FII data shows that a small selling in cash markets and balanced trading in F&O.
  
• Nifty futures net addition ove 7 lakhs.
  
• Option writings are showing a small downward bias but support at 4900 above.
  
• US markets opened in green, showed steam but lost sharply to close in deep red.
  
• Global markets are -ve.
  
• SGX nifty -ve.
  

Over all view: Today is event day i.e., RBI credit policy. Previous day all bank stocks were down. As the settlement is very nearer and as seen from very high buildup in 4900 puts markets may not fall below this level but may not cross above 5050. Trading is intraday as per 5 day charts. But, over all international markets are showing loss of steam.

22-10-09 trading shows that the nifty breaks the long term trend line and closed at 4988.6 -75 points.

• FII data sold every where.
• F&O data shows more call writing at 5000 call and put shedding.
• Nifty future role over to next month around 9 lakhs.
  

Over all view: as seen from the breakout of the trend line and FII huge shorting in index futures and consistent shorts build up in stocks futures it may be expected that there may be continuous fall of markets for this settlement. Else the signal of reversal by the big groups to long has to be observed. Target for the nifty first level will be 4580. If there are no signs of F&O buying with volumes intraday tomorrow the above expectation will be a success.

Morning update: US markets recovered and closed remarkably well and global markets along with SGX nifty is in positive. Hence, we may expect a good opening. But, wait for buying confirmation with volumes in F&O.

21-10-2009 trading shows that nifty corrected further and closed at 5064-50.

• FII sold in cash, index and stocks futures.
  
• F&O data nifty futures sheds open interest further.
  
• Options writings shows more calls written and puts sheds.
  
• US markets rose to new highs but closed in red.
  
• Global markets are in red.
• SGX nifty lost its overnight green and now in red.
  
• Nifty supports may be 5030-4980 and 20 day ema =5022.
  
• Nifty closed below 5 day ema 5095.
  

Over all view: As it is observed from FII short positions buildup in stocks futures through out the series one may feel that this settlement may in below to previous one i.e., 4983. But, if there is any continuation of bull run, nifty has to corrects for one or two days and bounces up into next week for bullish settlement closing. Wait for one more day for confirmation. But now following the 5 day charts one may trade to downside.

20-10-2009 trading shows that the markets faced resistance at 5185 and lost ground up to 5092 and nifty closed at 5114 -28.

• FII data bought in cash.
  
• US markets were in red.
  
• Global markets are in red.
• 10 day ema 5080.
  
• 20 day ema 5018..
  
• SGX nifty is flat.
  
• F&O nifty future sheds open interest around 10 lakhs.
• Option writings: More calls were written at 5100. Puts sheds open interest.
  

Over all view: As expected markets could not continued the rise for the week. It is correcting now itself. Means, nifty may correct for two days and rise for further upward targets in the next settlement. Lower levels support may be at 5080 and 5018.

On the eve of moorath trading markets opened higher but could not sustain the rise. Nifty closed flat. But the under current is bullish as per mid cap stocks and momentum stocks. The less volumes can not give us the perfect insight for market swings. The heavy discount through out the one hour is some what tricky?.

• Nifty future sheds further means no short term trend reversal.
  
• Now US markets are bullish overnight.
  
• Global markets are bullish.
  
• FII data bought in cash, bought in index future but sold in stocks futures (as usual).
  
• SGX nifty is up.
• Shanghai Composite up & Seoul Composite up.
  

Overall view: As seen the rising wedge nifty has to face resistance at 5200. If crosses let us wait for the level 5330-5370-5400. This 5400 zone is just 75% retracement level of total fall from January 2008. My personal view is no danger for two days for longs. If there is rise with speed one may expect a complete swing reversal for the next week to close the settlement at lower levels may be 5200 zone after touching 5400. The correctionless run for the all time high within the financial year is also possible.

A view on Reliance: If crosses 2375 very strong chances of crossing 52 week high. More possibility now.

16-10-09 trading continued the rally and closed at nifty 5142+33 points. Very good run up but not reached the expected target 5190-5220 immediately.

• FII data bought in cash but the F&O data of fii was not updated till now.
• F&O nifty future shed 5+ lakhs means further run away of shorts.
• Option writing: Heavy put writing and cover of calls.
• US markets Dow recovered from lows but closed below 10k.

Over all view: If nifty crosses 5200-5250 means super bullishness may be for this settlement itself. But we may anticipate a small correction before this run up in the next week. But down side is nifty 5050-5010. These are levels as per rising wedge. One time booking profit for calls at nifty 5200 zone. Expecting bullish moorath trading.

Happy Diwali and new trading year with all trading profits.  

15-10-09 trading shows that the nifty faced resistance at 5152 and corrected to 5077, but took support at this level and nifty closed at 5109-9 points.

• FII bought in cash, sold in index and stocks futures.
• F&O data nifty future sheds -4.8 lakhs.
• Option writings more put writing than calls.
• US markets are positive. Global markets are +ve but flat.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: In the run up markets faced resistance at 5152 and corrected to 70 points but raised and closed flat. Means that the correction to the run up is over. But as seen from FII additions in stocks futures on sell side it is expected that the markets will have to come down from this levels either now it self or after some days. The nifty futures is not showing any addition of open interest to up side. This is a worrying factor for bulls. But the addition of option puts on down side gives support to the markets from major down fall.

Hold calls above nifty 5050 for a target 5220-5310. If nifty breaks 5050 buy puts but stop loss for puts will be 5050 only.

14-10-09 trading shows that the markets are in full zoom to Diwali eve. Nifty closed at 5118 +64.  

• FII data: bought in cash, bought in index futures, but sold in stocks futures.
• F&O data: Nifty futures shed open index.
• Option writings: 5100 puts added.
• US markets: Dow crossed 10K.
• Global cues are positive.
• SGX nifty is positive.

Over all view: Nifty may trade up with out correction up to Diwali for a closing around 5310-5350.

12-10-09 trading shows that the markets took support on the long term support line i.e., nifty 4930 and bounced back to rise. Nifty closed at 5054 +109 points.

• FII data more buying in cash, index futures, and stocks futures.
• F&O data nifty futures reduced o i means strength not added for blind bull run. options writings shows more put writings and buy back of calls shows bullishness.
• US markets are flat means weakness.
• Global cues are in green but weak.
• SGX nifty flat.

Over all view: As the markets took support on the trend line it is now expected there wil be some bull run may be up to nifty 5220. Rising wedge resistance line is at that zone. Then if markets turn down we will see it later. 

9-10-09 trading shows that the news Infosys or Reliance won't boost up the markets. Nifty closed at 4945 - 57 points.

• FII data sold in Cash, index futures and stocks futures and building the shorts in stocks futures strongly mean markets will fall from this level.
  
• F&O nifty futures open interest added further means shorts.
  
• Options writings shows more call writing at 5000 level and this should become less than Rs 30/- before a reversal in the markets.
• US markets are in bull stream.
  
• Global markets may be in flat to bullish.
  

Over all view: As seen from FII short positions in stocks futures and fresh shorts in index futures at long term support levels of nifty 4930 zone the lower levels will be far below. Even if markets show some strength at the time of opening on Monday this won't stay for ever. Market has to break the levels and retrace to 4600 levels before a rise.

• The target for the break of rising wedge from 3920 to 5080 and to break 4930 will be up to the 3780 zone.
• Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%  from 2539 to 5110 matches to 3534. 
• Time zone may be 2 and 1/2 months. But, will the market stay or slide further ? depends up on the RBI money pull back policy.

5 ema (high) =5048        5 ema (low)=4958.  Markets closed below 5 day ema(low). Hence, until the markets close above this 4958 longs can be avoided.

Stop loss for the downward journey is breaking the 5100 levels with speed in the next week.

8-10-09 trading shows that the positive opening because of Reliance bonus issue and Global cues were not sustained. Nifty closed in green above 5000 but at 5002. FII data sold in cash, sold in stocks futures, bought in index futures. F&O data shows that more put writing and call buy back. Nifty index future o i added further. US markets are green. Global cues are green to weak. Technical indicators are weak. Market is nearing to break the long term support levels. Over all view: As infosys result swings the markets it is expected that the markets may give direction on Monday trading only. Be cautious till then. The rise in the markets will be only after cutting the long term support levels and market may test 4800 levels.

7-10-09 trading shows that the rally was not taking place by facing the top resistance at nifty 5060. Nifty closed by correcting more at 4986-41.

• FII data shows that more buying in cash, index futures, and stocks futures.
  
• F&O nifty Open Interest added 8 lakhs means shorts.
• US markets are flat. Global markets are flat.
  
• Option writings are at 5100 5000 calls and 4700 4900 puts.
  
• Long term support is at 4927.
  
• Raising wedge upper level is at 5130.
  
• 20day ema =4927.
  
• 5 ema high=5062.
  
• 5 ema low=4970.
  

Over all view: As the Reliance bonus issue makes reliance to go up one may expect some rise in the markets. Tomorrow will be Infosys result. Now we are at long term support levels. FIIs once again came into buying. If market takes support at lower levels and bounces one may expect further rally that may leads to 18 k at Diwali. Let us check the trading pattern for today and tomorrow. If market breaks the long term support then immediate target will be 4550.

6-10-09 trading shows that the steep fall & rise implies that short term correction is over and further bull trend is on. Nifty closed at 5027 +24 points.

• US markets continued the bounce and the global cues are +ve.
  
• FII and DII all sold more than buys.(But market raised?).
  
• 5 day ema high = 5055 and low is 4968.
  
• Major support trend line is at 4870.
  

Over all view: As we see more selling in the F&O by FIIs there may not be steep rise immediately. this week may be an event based and balanced one. Wait for good opportunity or trade as per 5 ema high/low levels. Go long in nifty futures above 5055 and short below 4968.

Now I am following 5 day ema high vs low for trading nifty future short term. Nifty high 5059 low 4992. Short nifty future below 5059 SL same and go long above it. If falls below low 4992 SL will be 4992 and to reverse above it. US, global markets are weak. SGX nifty is in red. As nifty falls below 5080 now wait for longs for 2 days.

Now the US markets are drifting down. As expected if S&P falls below 1033, may be, the rise is over. And the bear market fall may resume. What happens in the markets let us see. A point of observation.

s&p support 990 - resistance 1041-1061.

30-9-09 trading shows that markets took a breakout and nifty closed at 5083. A good break out.

• FIIs bought in cash, stocks futures but sold in index futures.
• F&O nifty index sheds 2.5 lakhs (bearish).
• Option writings at 5000 put (15 lakhs) and reduction in 5100 calls (bullish).
• US markets were in red yesterday.
• Global cues are -ve.
• SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: Still 50-50. Now sensex is at 17126. The range may be sensex 17450-17750. The doubt is whether the markets take big correction (20%) before crossing 18k or after. Bullishness may be one day? Let us wait and see.