new settlement - bullish

The closing day of settlement was bullish and nifty closed at 4571. Global cues are bullish. FII data, F&O data, option writing all are bullish. Nifty swing from 4500-4700-4880 expected. If nifty closes below 4600 then only we can think differently.

Settlement pressures

29-7-2009 penultimate day of settlement met with huge swing to down side over 150 points and a good recovery. Nifty closed at 4514-51 points.

FII data (over 25 lakhs nifty selling means - ve.), F&O nifty future addition(read with FII data means - ve.), option writings (more put writings means +ve.). Global cues are resisting to negativity (How much time?). SGX nifty -ve. Technical indicators are just turned to downward.

Over all view: Today is settlement day. Now that markets yielded to the resistance faced for 4 days. Is it just for settlement or for further fall? That is to be assessed on Friday's trading. Support levels are at nifty 4250 zone and bullishness is good only after nifty crossing 4600 level. In between it is only for intra day. But beware of shorts by FIIs which may lead to further fall. Will the Shanghai Composite jerk on yesterday be a trigger for a major fall in all international exchanges or a scattered one.

Alert: downward bias for the two days please.

28-7-2009 trading shows that the selling pressure is being absorbed to keep the markets at a high and to pull up further as a time bound target. Nifty closed at flat 4564-8 points. Fii data, f&o data, option writing shows that markets won't fall now, though the technical indicators are at over bought levels.

Over all view: If nifty crosses 4600 fully bullish targeting 5200 in the next month. And if nifty brakes the 4450 level then only weakness. But advantage bulls.

27-7-2009 trading was in line with the expectation just in the range before settlement closing. Nifty was range bound and closed flat at 4572+3 points. FII data, F&O data, option writing all are still positive.Global cues are not negative. RBI policy release today may give some jerks to the markets on intra day basis and markets may consolidate for settlement closing after giving about 100 points jerks today.

Over all market view is not changed from bullish view.

24-7-2009 trading showing bullish run after giving a little shifting correction up to nifty 4380 three days back. Now nifty closed at 4569 +45 points. FII data F&O - ve and +ve in cash buying, F & O future next month addition 13 lakhs at high level ???., option writing nifty range is 4500. SGX nifty is +ve now. Global cues + ve.

Over all view: As seen from technical view the markets are bullish and with some adjustments for settlement markets will continue the journey to up side targeting nifty 4800-4880-5000-5200 with intermediate correction. As seen from Reliance result and RBI policy data one may expect a little bit correction coinciding with settlement that to may be up to nifty 4500-4450-4500-4550 zone only. All technical indicators are bullish.

23-7-2009 trading was very strong reversal to the previous day's trading and even F & O additions are +ve. Nifty closed at 4514 +125 points. Global cues are + ve.

View: Markets will rise very well from now. Though mkts adjust for some time due to settlement over all view is + ve up to nifty 4880-5200-5400 with intermediate correction. Target time zone is 2nd week of August.

22-7-2009 trading as taking +ve cues from global markets took very strong rise up to 4560 and fell sharply to break 4400 level. Nifty closed at 4400 -70. FII data - ve, F & O nifty future is flat, option writing is - ve. Global cues are - ve. But SGX nifty is + 40 as of now.

Over all view: Now, that market is in shifting stage and nifty may corrects up to 4360-4300-4250-4150 -4050 also? We have to wait and see What happens. The first 2 or 3 levels may happen but if nifty goes down further there is danger for bull rally. Will the markets corrects further as seen from +ve SGX nifty as of now?????

21-7-2009 trading shows that as expected market took rest and FIIs started selling in cash. Nifty closed at 4469-33 points. FII data, F & O data, option writing are little bit positive bias. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is + ve.

Over all view: As we have just started shifting correction this may run for another 2 days. One may expect further drifting of nifty up to 4300 level for further rise. If nifty won't correct to that extent in this week there may not be bullishness in the next week.

20-7-2009 trading shows that the target is reaching within one day and nifty is just to the resistance level 4550+/-20 zone. Nifty closed with uninterrupted rise at 4502 +127 points. FII data positive, F & O data balanced. Option writing is + ve. Global cues fully positive.

Over all view: As expected the markets may reach 4700 for this settlement. If market gets little bit correction(shifting correction over 150 points during this week) and starts rise again one may see continuation of rise during the next month settlement. Target as per sensex below 18000 and in nifty 5200-5400 zone. Markets will get correction before nifty crosses 4600. Hourly chart of nifty and RSI expects correction now.

Beware : If market corrects beyond 200 points from higher level then only the view will gets reversed to bear advantage.

17-7-2009 trading shows that markets took huge jump crossing the resistance level of 4360 also and nifty closed at 4375+144 points. FII data, futures data, option writing, global cues are positive. As seen from FII longs buildup in index futures to the extent of 15 lakhs the markets are expected for rise even from this level. As expected earlier the markets may give huge profits to 4700 calls but before reaching that target we may see two to three days side ways/downward correction 100-150 points correction at shifting time of F & O. This may be in the 2nd part of the week. Then one can plan to buy calls 4600. Nifty has to come out of the rectangle in the chart either to go up or go down. Nifty levels in a broader view is more bullish above 4520 ( after some correction) and down below 4200-4150.

s2=4171 s1= 4273 p= 4331 r1= 4433 r2= 4492

16-7-2009 trading as expected took resistance at nifty 4305 and traded to down ward with a flat closing at 4231. Even the second half of trading rise was also weeded out.Global cues are not -ve but not strongly +ve. FII data in cash and futures was range bound , F&O data longs cleared in nifty futures, options writings is to bullish side and potentiality is 4300 + . Entire F & O build up is just concentrated at 4300 level but as we have 10 trading sessions further, the markets will swing from this point also minimum 200 -300 points either way but as per Friday's trading one can predict the swing is to which direction. As per GANN Fan chart nifty should cross 4240-4260 for bullishness which may lead to new highs in nifty 4700 +. Else ABRAKADABRA.

15-7-2009: Due to some technical problem at me I could not post my views yesterday. Nifty closed at 4234+122.

The swing reversal from nifty 3920 is rising well with a good steam and it will continue even today as the FII data, F&O data, option writing, global cues, SGX nifty all are showing greenish. The view to determine is the range to which the steam will take the markets at present. My view is if markets crosses nifty 4320 zone where there will be some jerks to weed out weak hands from longs then we will see nifty 4700++ in this settlement it self. Let us wait and watch on the ticker screen the remaining story.
Over all view: Wait for a jerk and try to buy calls for handsome gains in this settlement.

13-7-2009 trading shows that markets might have reached the temporary support level and the support level of rising wedge on daily charts from nifty 4693 to 3930. Nifty closed at 3974-30.point after taking support at 3920. Also markets closed at high end of the day. Global cues are + ve. FII data in cash sold, in index future shorts, in stocks futures bought means balanced as of now. F & O nifty futures - 2.72 lakhs a small range of short covering. Option writings are more calls written.

Over all view: As the present market took support at nifty 3920 i.e., support level of the rising wedge and globally +ve signs are visible now it is expected that this +veness may be for 2 days and minimum rise will be up to 4120.

10-7-2009 trading shows that the weekly closing was at the lowest around -10%. Nifty closed at 4004-77 points. This is the trend after and break of neck line of H & S formation on the daily charts. OK. Every thing ie., FII cash sales, F & O data nifty future addition, option writings all shows weakness to continue further. SGX nifty, Global cues, Crude, commodities prices are too falling.
Over all view: Continue with shorts or puts for further fall. Indicators are yet to complete their downward journey. Nifty levels:3930-3550. But the question is whether the entire fall will be in one go or there may be a bounce at once.

9-7-2009 trading was like consolidating the positions at the level after a fall of 100 points. It was a flat closing day means the positions in F & O might be reversed to make a big swing once again. But now the event is Infosys results. Bulls active only after nifty crosses 4165. Till then shorts are valid. But the point of feeling is whether the markets will fall continuously now or take a pause and a small up swing before a big fall.

FII data sold in cash, but a small buying in index/stocks futures.F&O data nifty future is -8.3 lakhs means shorts cleared???? options writing is a little bit downward bias. Global cues are not +ve. SGX nifty is - ve now.

Over all view: Event along with week closing will lead to some big swing today but it is based on the swing given by Infosys results.

8-7-09 trading shows that the neck line of h & s decisively broken and nifty closed at 4079 -123. FII data(shorts in index futures but bought in stocks futures), F&O data, option writing all are showing negativity. FII sold in cash. Global cues are not strongly + ve. Dow in green overnight and green for the next trading also. SGX nifty is just + ve.

Over all view: daily, hourly, 30 minute charts indicators are all require 1 to 1 and half day's down for fully over sold and reverses. Down ward support levels are 3980-3950-3930 and bounces up to 4130 only. Markets may rise based on the event G-8 summit statements/Infosys results.

7-7-2009 trading shows that markets took a pause after big fall. Nifty is at 4202 +36. Now, FII data, F&O data, option writings are + ve. But the global cues are - ve. SGX nifty is - ve. Today the neck line of h & s is to be broken means severe fall in future. So, the situation is confused whether markets fall continuously or take a little pause to reverse the positions of FII s from long to short.

Over all view is short and wait with a stop loss is 4200.

post budget...

6-7-2009 trading on budget day was at - 5%. Nifty closed at 4163 -261.   FII data most negative. Nifty future o i + 6 lakhs means addition of shorts.  Option writing is negative.  Global cues are not + ve. Forget what the budget is but the markets reacted most violently and tanked down. 

The Head and shoulder formation on the daily charts is true now and the neck line is broken and markets closed at the line.  The expected trend reversal to be happened over a week happened in one go.  O K.  Now, the calculation is all to down side. The target for nifty to down side is 3500 may be in 3 weeks or in two months. Whether you trade today or wait for a little bounce the trading should be to down side until markets tests the bottom or we see a major buildup in the F & O segment.  Any stop loss to the shorts/puts is nifty 4250. 

Budget day ....

3-7-2009 trading ie., the day of Railway budget shows that the markets took a bullish view in the second half of the day and nifty closed at 4424 +75. Today is budget day. As seen from previous day's trend along with FII data, F & O data, option writings are showing a bullish view. This may lead to a up swing further even after budget.

A precaution: If markets rises and cannot take the steam to the next day then there is a chance of forming the right shoulder in the daily chart and markets may took down ward journey for the medium term. The time to the downward break is 13 - 7 - 2009.

2-7-2009 trading shows that the eco survey created big swing in market. Nifty closed in flat at 4349 + 8.  FII data is + ve in cash, just flat in F & O, open interest in nifty future is - ve means shorts gone out of the system.  Option writings are balanced. 

Global cues are -- ve and SGX nifty is in red now.  As every one derives + ve views from the eco survey and the clearance of some shorts from the system shows markets are poised for a big rally linked with the budget reports. But as it is seen from very - ve global cues our markets may open in red and gets preparation for a big jump on Monday.

Nifty levels below 4280 down and above 4350 up.

budget build up....

1-7-2009 trading: The week trading shows that markets are creating some euphoria to the event of BUDGET. Nifty took support at 4250 zone and closed in + ve at 4341 +50.

FII data is - ve but some buying in cash. F & O data is balanced. Option writing is also balancing. Global cues are + ve. SGX nifty is +ve.

Present the market direction is 50-50. Nifty short below 4300 stop loss 4350. Long above 4350 stop loss is 4300. As premiums are very high one can get good trades after budget event. Let us wait.

30-6-2009 the last day of the quarter made many worried by loosing steam. Markets opened in green and lost 100 points to close nifty at 4291. FII data, F & O data 6.5 lakhs addition in nifty future and addition of shorts in many stocks , Option writing all are negative. FII cash buying is +ve. Global cues are negative. SGX nifty which was at -50 yesterday late trading , now trading at flat.

Head and shoulder in daily charts.

Will the right shoulder be completed for further fall in the markets? Wait for two days. To break the right shoulder to down(nifty 4170-4150 to be broken) there should be one big gap down within one week.

Over all view: One to 1 and half day red may be seen further. Nifty 4250-4218-4170-4150 all are hurdles. If markets wants to attract common man's shorts into the system markets have to break all the levels noted above. Then only markets will jump up remarkably to show any goodness of the coming budget. Will it happen?