29-6-2009 trading shows that markets took speed in rising up though it closed with a jerk. Nifty closed at 4391+15 points. All technical indicators are to + side. Global news is + side. All Indian analyst's opinion is +ve. FII data + in cash, - in index & stocks futures.Nifty futures -3.2 lakhs means not +ve but not - ve as very build up is seen in f&o which is insufficient to force the market down with speed. F & O writings are balanced with nifty range from 4300-4600.SGX nifty is +ve now.

Over all view:
Last hope for big bearish head & shoulders on day chart will be nifty should be below 4465. Else bullish and markets will see new highs and even bullish for the entire July series?. Bears attack will be nifty below 4315.

26-6-2009 trading shows that the first day closing shows a bullish view in the market by closing nifty above 4350 ie., 4375+133 points. FII data is + ve in index futures and - ve in stocks futures. F & O data is + ve  and option writing is +ve by writing more puts at 4300-4200 range.

Global cues are flat. SGX nifty is flat. 

Over all view: Being the preceding week of budget sudden movements may be expected as there may be some news/views about budget.  As role overs in F&O are minimum the bulls are not strong and may be at wait&watch policy.  +/- 100 points swing in nifty may be expected in this week. 

25-6-2009 trading which is settlement day shows that markets closed in red against to the view. Nifty is at 4242 -51. Now, the first day of F & O data can not indicate more but FIIs sold more than buys. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is +50. Option writing shows that more put writing at 4200 may give support at this level. Market is expecting pre-budget rally.
Over all view: Markets will open in green but at the closing there may be weakness. But nifty below 4250-4150 is more dangerous.

24-6-2009 trading shows that markets are moving further higher for settlement. Nifty closed at 4293+46 points.  FII data, F & O data, option writing all are to + ve side.  Global cues are not so  + ve.  For today's settlement markets may rise up and nifty close above 4300.

22-6-2009 trading shows that due to very weak global cues our markets continued down trend and opened lower but immediately rises up. Later showed more volatility and closed in green nifty at 4247 +12 points. FII data is more shorts in index future, stocks future, more selling in cash. F & O data is +36 lakhs addition in nifty future next month. (net 9 lakhs). Global cues are still negative.
Over all view: Due to settlement pressures nifty may close around 4200 + . As per 2 previous days trading more role over is going on. If markets stays in green for today markets may reach 4330 else down.

10 ema=4340; 20 ema=4330; 50 ema= 4040.Support 4092. above 4227, 4249 (and above yesterday's high bullish).

22-6-2009 trading though opened in positive reversed from mid day and closed in negative. Now FII reversed some more shorts and all data with global cues are - ve. Markets may corrects further to 4100-4050-4000 and bounce in this settlement up to 4300 only. One may try to buy calls 4200 around 15 either today/tomorrow.

19-6-2009 trading shows that markets took support at 4202 range and bounced up to close in green at 4314+62.  FII data, nifty futures shows that the fall may stop here and markets may rise a little bit. Global cues are not supporting fully to a raise. News from Govt is expected for further rise in markets. Option writings are indicating range bound.  All FII shorts were not cleared. Means we may see further fall in this settlement it self. Then markets may close below 4000 for settlement. Steam like earlier bounces is not seen this time.   SGX nifty is negative now.

Over all view: If markets fall first and test 4200 at first instance then we may see a bullish closing for settlement around 4400.  Else if markets face resistance at 4350-4400 and falls then the closing will be around 4100-4000. Take decision by intra day swings. BUT ANYTHING MAY BE POSSIBLE.

18-6-2009 trading continued the down trend and nifty lost another 105 points and closed at 4251. FII data in cash, index future, stocks future is on down side even today. DII bought in cash. over all nifty futures added another 11 lakhs shares, may be further shorts. Down fall continues. Option writings also shows the further fall. Global cues are not negative, SGX nifty is +25 points.

Over all view : Just seeing the break of raising wedge in the daily chart the half way is 4300 that is broken and then 100 % is at 3925. In between there are some trend lines. Will they give support? Wait for reversal of the market and try to buy calls, may be today. Buy nifty 4300 call @ 18-23 range for 10 times profit in the next week.

Nifty down levels: 4210-4185-4150-4100-3925.

17-6-2009 trading shows the result of the FIIs huge short positions on the previous day. Though the markets rise from opening lows to zero level later took dive to close at nifty 4356 -162. (Every thing in one day?).  

FII data in cash, index future are on short side and it seems FII s added further shorts to the extent of 29.5 lakhs in index futures though they were balanced (intraday) in stocks futures side.  Levels were not yet reached. DIIs bought in cash segment.  Global cues are not positive. All technical indicators are to down side. SGX nifty flat to little bit positive. 

Over all view: Though our Govt/news is not + side and SGX nifty on + side markets may not turn up as a final go today.  Still down side journey is there as seen from FII positions in index futures. One can wait for Friday mid day to buy any calls.  Target trade to buy calls nifty 4300 atRs 40/-.  

For today wait and see for weakness in intraday charts and play to down side only.

Downward levels for nifty are     4285  -   4177  -   4155  -   4102  -   4092  -   3930.

16-6-2009 trading shows that the markets took support around 20 day ema line and bounced up. Nifty closed at 4518. This shows that markets are to go up side. But,this is wrong.

FII data more cash selling, more index future selling, more stocks futures selling means very big buildup in shorts. F & O nifty futures added 11.5 lakhs, probably shorts.This is most dangerous and the markets though go up due to any reasons one should not trade to long side. My view is to buy nifty 4600 put at every 50 points rise till Friday.

If markets won't fall before Friday we may see very big down fall in the next week and we may see negative closing for settlement.

FII pulse is sufficient for today's analysis. Enjoy down fall target may be nifty 4300-4100 and even 3900 for this month.

ABRAKADABRA.

Nifty levels : Go long nifty above 4540 and go short below 4480.
Pivot : 4496.

15-6-2009 trading shows to continue the weakness and falling from the rising wedge in the daily charts. May be RIL-RNRL case is one factor. Nifty closed -99 @4484.  Technically markets will correct further. RSI was below 70. But as per F & O data there were no major shorts build up means bouncing from lower levels is very strong but one has to catch it perfectly.  Last 15 minutes heavy call buying and put selling was seen across the board.  FII data negative, F & O data is weak but not negative, option writing is downward biased. The target for the wedge break out will be nifty 4300-4100. But cutting the previous week low 4380 is not easy. Let us wait and see what happens. Global cues are negative SGX nifty at present is -99. 

Over all view:  On many occasions markets gave profits on up side jumping and so one has to catch the chance of buying calls may be 4700 in single digits. Don't trade short side and wait for buying calls.....

12-6-2009 trading shows that markets faced resistance at 52 week high and 4693. Nifty closed at 4583 (-54) points.  

FII data is positive, F & O data is not positive  but may not fully negative . Option writing shows markets may be range bound for 2 - 3 days.

Over all view: wait for a good correction in these two days and try to buy 4700 calls at lower levels for big jump in index beyond 4700 and may be up to 4880 in this settlement.

11-6-2009 trading shows that markets could not cross the previous days high and broken 4600 level in the morning session. But later markets came up and in the evening nifty closed in red at 4637-17 points.  FII data, F & O data, Option writings are all showing positive signals.  Global cues are also positive.  Any correction is short lived till now. We are nearing the budget session and q1 results.  

Over all view: nifty may go up and one can buy calls in the intraday corrections. If nifty won't cross previous highs even at 1 o' clock and showing weakness (adv/dec) one can short and wait for monday trading.

10-6-2009 trading shows that markets opened gap up and traded there itself. Nifty closed at 4655+104 points. FII data, F & O data, option writings are positive. Global cues are just flat. View is positive.

Over all view : As per huge put option writings markets may go up further. All the corrections are to the extent of 250 points.

9-6-2009 trading shows a big reversal and may lead to further rise in the markets. Nifty closed at 4551 +121 points. FII data, F & O data, option writings are all positive. Global cues are not negative. View is positive as nifty once again took support at 10 day ema line even by breaching for 50 points. Now one can think of short if markets come down 4450 once again. Go long as of now.

nifty resistance 4656 + 20.

wait for confirmation...

8-6-2009 trading shows that markets reversed and took direction downward. What was build last week by FIIs was effected now. Though expected this reversal at the moment it was happened so immediately by not touching the magic figure of nifty 4650. Now, every thing is towards downwards. FII data, F & O build up , option writings, many heavy weight scripts looking towards downwards. But, as our markets are fully controlled ones let us wait for weed out of up swings that will happen today just to trap the small investors for buying calls. Now SGX nifty is trading + 50 points.

Over all view:
As expected the peak of 4630 is stop loss for mid term run. Today we are on 10 day ema line. On earlier occasions markets took this point as support. Will it fail this time.? May be, wait for one more day for observing the F & O movements. Stop loss for shorts may be 4500. If markets could not cross this level on closing basis the correction may be beyond 2 weeks.

First one can go long with stop loss is 4430 the 10 day ema point.

Creating a peak in mid-term...

5-6-2009 trading shows that markets are at unprecedented rise by closing 13 week in positive. Nifty closed at 4587 + 14 points. By observing the angle of rise in the long term charts one can feel that markets are nearing to a peak and when will it reverses is the present question. Generally every one feels for a correction as per price movements but the operators are strongly pulling the prices up. Liquidity is more even today. All the parameters are for positive direction. But sure the reversal from this level is not small one. One can see 1/3 of the entire rise i e., 700 points in nifty. 

Over all view: Long nifty until one can see huge call option writings and put option open interest reduction.  Nifty may rise max 1 and half a day.  Resistances 4650-4750-4850-4880.

4-6-2009 trading made a +ve break out after forming double bottom at nifty 4450 and finally nifty closed at 4573 (+ 42) points and BSE sensex closed at magic figure of 15009.

F & O: nifty future added +10 lakhs, Option writings: puts were written more than calls, FII data: - ve with buying in cash market. More shorts in stock futures even in index futures today. DII sold in cash markets?. Global cues + ve. SGX nifty + ve. This week is 13 th +ve closing. Then what about next week? Which will triger for selling? We do not know as of now. From now on wards longs are dangerous... That's all..

Over all View: +ve for opening and later if markets could not cross 4650 then short and wait. Stop loss for shorts will be 50 points up side. Previous top for weekly closing is 4649.5. If FII short build up is for certain reason we may see a good correction in the next week.

3-6-2009 trading is at consolidation/reversal mood and nifty closed at 4531 +5. FII data is just positive in index futures and cash buying but they continued more selling in stocks futures. More stocks are at reversal path. F & O data is nifty future - 4.9 lakhs and more put writings than call writings means markets may go up further. But as the over all build up is less and this is only 1 st week any thing may happens to the markets. (first go down and build up longs else vice versa). Global cues are not positive.

The positive point is President's speech in the joint parliament session today. Some thing may be spoken about the economic reforms that may leads to upper swing in the markets.

Over all view:
nifty long above 4570 or short below 4470. If falls below that nifty may correct up to 4320-4350.
Upper side 4650-4750-4850.

s2=4432 s1=4481 p=4528 r1=4577 r2=4624

2-6-2009 trading shows that markets corrected a little bit and recovered well. Nifty closed at 4525 -5 points. FII data is negative.It is 3rd day of FIIs are on sell side. F & O data not so directional ( still the positions were not build up).

Global cues are positive. SGX nifty is just positive.

Over all view: Markets are on side ways. Nifty levels are long above 4532 (target 4650-4750) and short range up to 4430-4390. More trading decisions are to be done as per intra day positions.

s2=4386 s1= 4456 p = 4521 r1=4591 r2=4656

1-6-2009 trading shows that the rise continues further by crossing 4500 levels very easily. Nifty closed at 4533 + 84 points. F & O data positive further, FII data positive in index futures but negative in stocks futures ( even on previous day) means initial signals for reversals. DIIs are net sellers in cash???. FIIs are net buyers in cash. Option writing shows that more puts at 4500 were written means there is room for rise. No major build up in over all f & o data and before a fall this should be increased. Perhaps the operators are of the opinion to build up the short positions at further higher levels? Global cues are positive and SGX nifty is +ve. Nifty levels 4650-4800-4900. Nifty 4500 is becoming major support.

Over all view: Go long in every intra day correction target as above with stop loss 4500.

s2=4414 s1=4472 p=4509 r1=4567 r2=4604

to rise further....

29-5-2009 trading shows that the bullishness continues. Nifty closed at 4449 + 112 points. Every thing is positive and continues further for some time. One can trade for two more days long side. Later the correction will also not be bigger one.

FII data, F & O data, option writing all are positive. Further call writing is required before markets take correction.

Over all view: Trade long nifty up to 4550-4650 levels.

s2=4278 s1=4363 p= 4426 r1= 4511 r2=4573