new settlement with new govt in making.

Yesterday's settlement day trading was unidirectional and bullish. Completely cleared the correction fall. Just short of 45 points for breaking the resistance level of nifty 3520.
FII data positive with buying in cash market. F & O nifty future very good addition with premium. Put option nifty 3400 writing 13 lakhs is a sign of rise in the market. If nifty breaks 3520 then the target will be 3650 -3680.

Daily/hourly charts are bullish for the time being. Stop loss for nifty longs 10 day ma @3300 zone.

settlement pressures?

Markets for the past two days are against to my view. I expected long side swing but the settlement correction is stronger and today also same.
On previous day markets corrected over 100 points and nifty closed at 3362 - 108 points. Puts windup and calls particularly 3300 level writing shows markets may close below 3300 level today and for the settlement. If any thing happens intra day market may close at least below 3350.

FII data in futures and cash market negative. Global cues are negative. Indicators stochastic and RSI both are turned to down side. SGX nifty is +25 at this time.

Nifty levels 3300-3280.

loss to call buyers?

27-4-2009 trading shows that the markets, taking cue from weak global markets opened in negative (against my expectation) but gone up to previous high level of 3520 swings violently to down side just to get relieved of the option buyers. Nifty closed at 3470 -11 points but sensex closed in positive at 11372 + 43 (showing the strength of the market and no major fall can be expected immediately). F & O writings + ve, FII data is balanced , Nifty Future open interest + 25 lakhs net increase in next month is positive. But no major shorts were build up even in the next month series. No hope for nifty to move up to 3650 but all the open interest is concentrated at 3500 level. Global cues are to be positive for tomorrow.

Trade expectation: Nifty may rise tomorrow beyond 3520 and up to 3570. But for the settlement markets may close near 3500 only as expected.

Danger zones: sensex below 11050. Nifty below 3380 but not expected for tomorrow.

rise to continue...

24-4-2009 trading shows that the correction is over and markets will move up for a while. Nifty is at 3481 + 57  points.  

FII data, F & O writings, FII cash buying, Global cues, SGX nifty all are positive.

Markets may rise up to nifty 3650 +/- 20 points zone and corrects for settlement may be at 3525 zone. 

One may buy 3600 calls immediately and book profit after one day trading  and go for  3600 puts.

  

Counter view: If markets won't correct and close on settlement day, means closes at the highest point one may buy puts for the next month immediately on settlement day. No trading on Thursday and Friday. On the first day of next settlement trading one may see a reversal.

a good reversal-- long lives.

23-4-2009 trading shows that nifty took support at 10 day ema i.e., 3300 zone and raised up.
F & O data is positive ( addition of longs in nifty next month), FII data and FII cash purchase are all positive.

One can go long with stop loss 50 points

shifting correction????

22-4-2009 trading shows that trend of profit booking and shifting of F & O contracts to the next month is continuing. But, the intra day swing of 100 points is still on. This correction has to take reversal either today or tomorrow.

F & O data is just not negative. No shorts build up. FII data is a little bit negative. Global cues are negative.
Event: Reliance result after trading hours.

Nifty levels: 10 day ema line support is still maintained but today it may be broken. Next support is 3200.

Very high volatility was seen in many scripts during the last 4 days. Technical indicators are reversed from over bought to down side. Result of this may not be small one. Either this is to down side or up side is a billion dollar question. Election based bare rally is to be continued further now. But, if the reliance result is not so good then markets have to fall with reliance ( A strong rally in this script was already seen from 1100 to 1800. What will be further???). US news fundamentally is not so good but the markets are in strong rally. A little bit confusion. Hence, one may hedge the positions and wait for the swings of Friday/ Monday and clear the hedge positions.
But advantage is to bulls....

carry over positions??

21-4-2009 trading shows that against to the global cues our markets rised very well (though opened in red). But, at higher levels selling was seen because of  profit booking and carry over of f & o positions to the next month. Finally nifty closed at 3365 -12 points.

F & O data: more calls were written, good role over in nifty futures, premium of May future than April, square off of shorts by FIIs and  a small range of cash selling. 

Global cues: positive as Dow is in +. Asian markets are little positive.

Events: Reliance results are after two trading days.... wait and watch... (Still time is there to buy calls???)

Levels: Nifty go long above 3390 and go short below 3320. 

Markets earlier touched the 10 day ema line and gone up. This time this line is at 3309. If nifty breaks this level nifty comes to 3150. 

20-4-2009 review...

Today's trading is also in line with the previous 2 days, just rise and profit booking. Huge open interest decrease in nifty future, FII cash buying, 3300 put writing. Global cues are negitive. There is no down side build up in futures. Hence, this fall may be a correction only. May be the fall is up to 3250-3150 as expected. Sensex levels are 10600. We may rise up linked with reliance result???.

2.45 pm . Target for earlier short nifty @3430 range = 3340 reached
.. Book profit.

20-4-09..mid day review. Markets are range bound for the post 2 hours.
Nifty shorted is well & markets today may close at nifty 3350---future
3340

20-4-2009 11.05 AM..Markets opened flat and raise 50 points. Nifty
@3440. Short nifty stop loss nifty future 3455 target 3373 - 3340.

This is a test post from email to my blog. In future I will post my
trading views in trading times.

no signals for major reversal???

First I have to say that I could not post anything here as I attended the election duties. Now, I am free.

As seen from previous two day's trading one can observe that the operator booked profits very well either in stocks/futures. Markets felt resistance at Nifty 3500 zone on the two days. Wild swing up and down on the previous day is also a signal. Open interest in nifty came down for the two days ( a profit booking but not addition of shorts). Even in stocks futures and option writings the trend has not changed to down side but a small correction swing. We have to study whether any thing happens on F & O front during the two trading sessions. If nothing has build up on the down side then buy 3600 calls.

Most possible expectation is that markets may correct for one or two days down side and goes up very well.

Levels as per Sensex: 10900-10800-10600 and bounce back....
On the nifty front 3300-3150.....

Up date 20-4-2009: 7.32 am.

Now SGX nifty is in small red and Asian markets are in red. 

Go long if nifty cannot break   3350 and go short if nifty cannot cross 3460.

Reaching turning point or small correction?

13-4-2009 trading shows range bound trading with a bullish closing.

As per sensex charts markets may raise up to 11250-11300 with in one/two days and fall up to 10650 in the near future. RSI is becoming weaker now on 60/30 minutes charts. In the nifty there may be raise of 100 points and fall later 250 points. If sensex falls below 10600 then markets will fall further else go long for further rises. FII data, F & O data are positive.

Update on 15-4-2009: Dow is weak on yesterday. Today is Infosys results. SGX nifty is flat. We may expect good results and markets may rise before fall else open weak then rise and then finally fall. But, one has to confirm the trend reversals by observing the Future open interest writings. Expected trend is weak for the week end / next week.

further bullish???

9-4-2009 trading shows that the markets are opened high and closed at flat. Nifty is at 3342 - 1. FII data, F &O writing are still showing bullishness and the steam is still exists. Dow is + ve. Global cues are all + ve. As we are nearing the 200 day average level 3450 markets may take a pause at this level coincided with Infosys results on 15 th April. First phase elections are on 16 th April. We may expect a range bound movement of markets at these levels for three days. One may book profits in the longs and wait for the further trend to follow after 16 th April.

What a big bang!!!!

8-4-2009:trading shows a big bang in the markets.  A rise of nifty from 3150 to 3350. A 200 points rise in the nifty on one day that to from -100 to +100, that to in the bear markets is not a joke.  Is it to drag the side ways money into market?  May be.  It is expected that the rise will be in the elections times.  

FII data, F & O data is all very bullish. An addition of 27 lacks in nifty future and huge put writing. But the total open interest is above 4 crores in nifty future which may be a point of bear advantage.

But, based on few points the situation is viewed in pessimistic way.

Sarad Pawar shared the dias with Left parties today in Orissa.

     This may lead to 4 th front in Lok Sabha election and weakens UPA.(Chances of congress/BJPs come back to power is lessened)

US asked India to take part in AFPAK policy. 

      This may create disturbance in India with our participation in war, if it  breaks out.

Based on any one of the above points our markets may fall drastically either after 16th April or in May.  Else because of international disturbances in 2009 our markets will see further fall continuously to the year end. What leads the matter and at what time is unknown? 

Definitely peace may not exist either politically or economically during the year.  Hence, one may book profits in the stocks/ en cash the stocks for the year and think for entry after the end 2009.

As a trader one can do anything.  But I believe that today's trades are not for bullishness.  It is only a trap for side ways money into market.  One can try to trade down side either on 16 th April or/else 16 th May.

One view market may crosses 200 day average line at nifty 3450 and falls.

rally continues...

6-4-2009 trading shows that bulls are near to book profits. Nifty started with + 100 points and immediately corrected and closed at 3257 +46 points. FII data, F & O writing and put writing are all show that markets will rise further. But, the call writing at 3300 was increased.  If tomorrow nifty rises and from +50 to starts down turn ( observe for first 30 minutes) short nifty and stop loss is 3320-3330. One may see a correction up to 3240-3150 before nifty rises further.

Update: 8-4-2009. Now the Dow & Global markets are all negative. Our market may open in negative. The fall may not a major one. One can wait for good opportunity to go long.

rally continues...

As per previous day's trade markets crossed major resistance level by a big jump and nifty closed at 3211 +151 points. Nifty crossed major trend line of the entire bear phase. To break this once again a major event is required internationally. Every thing is positive as of now. FII data, F & O writings, nifty future open interest are all showing that markets will go up further. Let us see for the next resistance level 3450 zone. But, even if we see a correction it will be up to 3200 only. Global cues are all positive and no signs of easing the steam. Hence, go long in calls but nifty may not cross 3500 before it gets a considerable correction.

bullish markets

1-4-2009 trading shows a very big raise of nifty from 2966 to 3060 i.e., -55 to + 39. Heavy put writing and strong raise from support level of nifty 2962 gives a view that markets will go up further. Global cues are positive. Nifty may test the resistance levels 3240-3300 in the next week. No view of down side as of now. One can buy calls Nifty 3200 .

31-3-2009 trading shows that markets raised strongly for the day but closed weak. Over all rise in nifty is 3021 +43 points.  Global cues are positive. FII and F&O data is showing advantage bears. Shorts were build up. But we have to see the markets whether crosses previous day levels either to up ward or down ward. Writing at nifty 3000 shows that markets will move around this level at least for a week. But it is better to hold 2 puts to 1 call option.