settlement over

Yesterday's settlement day trading was very well with a rise of 23 points nifty 2786. Very good signals from put 2700 writings in the march series. We may expect a little bit rise in the markets so that the huge open interest in 2700 puts will come down.That is an indication for market reversals to down side.  Stochastic is started rising means markets may go up. Very less call writings than puts. One may wait for stochastic to go to over bought zone to take puts. 

Nifty support 2730-2677 and resistance 2817-2880.

settlement day..

Today is settlement day. Global cues won't work out. Now, stochastic is at over sold zone and not moved upward. Trade nifty only based on levels. Short nifty below 2700 and long nifty in March series after crossing 2800 on closing basis on Friday. If markets are coming down below nifty 2700 in March then the fall may be severe to create new lows. Else, one may expect recovery rally.

stimulus 3.0

Yesterday's trading shows that the bottom for short term might be over. As the stimulus package, RBI action on rate cut are expected to effect market along with settlement short covering we may expect market may show some more green for two days. If any big size rally to be seen before final fall of bear market we have to see the rise at least in the next month. The signals may come in the first week of march. Else, the continuation fall.
But now one may go long in future taking stop loss in nifty as 2705 target 2818.

settlement....moves...

Previous day's trading shows that markets have taken a pause of two days and continued to drift down further.  This may say that the fall will be further aggravated and creates lower settlement closings for this series. Also nifty 2700 calls for Feb. added 15 lacks open interest, means markets have to close below 2700 for this month. Three days are enough to create a new low. Many important stocks are at new lows means support levels for market are broken.

Counter view if any huge movement takes place in 2700 calls it may lead to huge profit to call buyers, stochastic is at over sold zone.  But this may not happens as global cues are also shows downward signals. 

shifting.

F & O positions are shifting to March series now. Heavy addition in Nifty March series. Today we may understand the next week/settlement position for this series. Stochastic position is not fully over sold.  wait today too for buying calls.

Pause or reversal ???

Yesterday markets opened - ve and raised to + ve immediately and later closed in flat after struggling to cross nifty 2800. (with a false break out). Shifting is going on in F & O to March series. What is the impact of the Yesterday's bounce?  It will be known with in the first hour trade of today.  If falls markets go down further. Else any thing happens on the upper side. Bank shares are at short. Stochastic is slowly coming down but not fully over sold.  Wait for further fall to buy calls for  this month.

down turn

Yesterday's confirmed selling in market may follow for further two days. Stochastic is at middle level and to reach to over sold level minimum two trading days are required.  Up to Friday one may continue with shorts/puts.  Think to buy calls on Friday.

Lost hope??

Yesterday's budget trade shows that every body lost their hopes and nifty fell by 100 pts @ 2849. Stochastic turned to down very well. Markets came down from a very good level. Hence, we may fell that bullishness has failed and think for shorts. If every thing goes well we may continue our journey to down side in the major bear market.

Reverse view: If today's market is only in positive zone then the theory will be different.

waiting for budget.

Now, the Friday's trades shows that the mid day flare up was faded out at the end may be because of week end or a real bear turn.  Every study shows that at the most markets will go up to nifty 3020-3050 and very steep fall. Open interest build up is not supportive to this view. But the position can be changed intra day with in half an hour.  Another version is that many budgets were resulted in market fall.  So what about now?

If some thing happens to bullish side the range is up to nifty 4200 at mid 2009. But if it is not true we may see new low in March. For February we may not see major fall. Wait for two days. Then think. Now that we can not predict event result. 

Check for freek trades in the morning that may be a clue for the end day target.

Anoher clue from ONGC = if ongc closes above 740 then entire market is in bullish for mid term.

Technically?,,,

Thought market raised from low to 2925 but could not come to positive zone and fallen further to lower level to close at nifty 2894. Bullish steam failed. 2800 puts -13 lacks and nifty future is also -ve means bullishness came down.

Technically to speak that market is to fall further but may or may not take speed in fall. Stochastic is turned down from over bought. Just short and wait stop loss 2940. But markets may fall only after nifty falls below 2850-2800. It should happen with in two trading days.

But if market takes support at nifty 2855-2830-2800 and bounce up crosses 2900 then it is sure market crosses 3050-3150. Let us wait and see what happens.

very good recovery....

Today markets opened in red and raised for the first hour and came down in mid day but later gone up and closed flat. Amidst the negative global cues markets recovered very well. This shows that, if required, our operators can do anything....

Now, our journey to up side is intact and we may see huge momentum in one or two days. Friday 2 nd half is dangerous. Targets for nifty 2980-3050-3140. Stop loss is low of previous day.

Dow not negitive. F & O data positive. But have a look at down side above nifty 3000. One has to buy 2900 puts & 3100 calls for good profits. Today support 2890 resistance 2960. 

Global cues

Yesterday markets traded in green with a big correction in the afternoon and nifty was at 2934. At 2980-2960 zone stochastic was at over bought and now Dow is down very much.  Our sentment should be bullish. First markets may react to the Dow fall but if nifty to take suppport at 2850-2860 ok otherwise markets will fall further. Hence, let us wait for support. 

Bullish

Yesterday trades shows that markets are turning to bullish for few days as expected.  Nifty closed at 2920. Next 2980-3050-3140.  Stochastic is at over bought zone. MACD is bullish. Most important is the very huge writing of puts... and addition of nifty future open interest 20 lakhs. This will definitely says that the bullishness should be more than 100 points.  But, as the Dow is not bullish yesterday we may see a little bit profit booking and later market will go up. In a correcting market one may concentrate at 3000, 3100 nifty calls. 

currency crisis--

"Ten Years After the Asian Currency Crisis: Future Challenges for Asian Economies and Financial Markets"  

Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis  

The Asian Financial Crisis Ten Years Later

Leading indicators of currency crises 

IMF Says Advanced Economies Already in Depression 

positive for next week.

On previous day nifty traded well and closed at 2843 +63 pts. Over all for the week nifty was in red. But as the markets were not broken downside in the last week it is expected markets may rise in the coming week at lease 2900-2980-3050. US markets Dow is also at a recovery path and may rise in the next week which may lead global cues to positive.  If there is any cues from vote on account budget that will add to rise in the markets. Hope for better for the next week.

?!

Yester day nifty traded in red and at 2780 lost -23 pts. Market is in a triangle and it has to come out to take any direction. To down side,  as we are in bear phase and to cross to up side as we require a bear market rally.  Then, the fall now we are seeing is  highly controlled and rising a doubt whether it is to fall or to trap the shorts.  Levels for nifty 2870 up side and 2700 down side. Intra day levels nifty 2810-2750.

!!!

Yesterday's trades were also at confusing the sentiment.  To get clarity these two day's trades are also important.  But what is there after fall of the 2 days? ... No... No... First if nifty comes down below 2730 buy puts else buy calls.  That is all.

??

Yesterday markets squeezed puts and calls and finally closed a little bit + at 2784. Nifty is sliding on a small support line. To fall it further nifty has to cross down 2725 faster else to cross 2860. Now global cues are + ve. But, very high sudden swings were in the markets to confuse the positional traders. Let us see what happens.

downward confirmation?

Markets were traded down and closed nifty at 2767. This will be confirmed only after nifty brakes 2660. Then 2550-... Till then the markets may go up once again in the range.