Nifty for 08122010: Nifty falls below 5950 once and for closing recovered very well but closed in red.  Nifty open interest was down by 9.9 lakhs means the confirmation of no long. FIIs sold in all the segments. US markets also lost the opening steam. Asian markets are flat. Nifty is expected further down today. If not go long above 6000 and stop loss is same.

Nifty for 07122010: Nifty yesterday opened up and traded higher and future reached to a high of 6094. A bullish breakout. Means markets have to go up and reach 6250 but this steam was lost in the after noon trading and nifty closed flat with a red colour. Nifty future shed open interest a little bit means weakness. FII sold in cash, F&O index futures, but bought in cash futures. US markets covered the fall and closed flat. Now Asian markets are flat to red.  Nifty if falls now means medium to long term fall. If nifty breaks 5950 a fall that may result in breaking of 5700 and to a first target of 5555. 

Nifty for 06122010: Nifty closed in this week at 5992 showing a bullish candle on weekly chart. OK. FII data is positive in cash/F&O. Global cues are flat to positive. But, the last two days of the week is consolidation at higher levels. And the nifty open interest is down by 1.13 lakh shows that the steam is less now. The market is at resistance zone.

Hence, if nifty falls below 5950 the markets may be in bear grip for the medium term (which may lead to long term) until nifty corrects 20% from top. This may take to 2 months or more. But, if nifty breaks resistance zone 6050-6070 we may see 6250 surely. We may think for a down swing at the top levels.

Nifty for 30112010:
As per 29th Nove trading nifty took a bounce from the fall closed at 5830. Good trading.

• Nifty future added 3+ lakhs.
•  FII data bought in cash, index future, stocks futures.
•  US markets are falling and fall further???.

 In a falling market nifty has to bounce up to 5960 and fall further by facing resistance lines around 6000 +/-20 points on eod charts. This is expectation as of now. But if there is any strong news +ve from Govt market has to continue upward journey.  As  seen from the 2 G/Bribe for Loan scams  the medium term down trend is already set that may fall up to 5550-5450-5150 which may run for few months???

Nifty : nifty future short below 5800 stop loss is same. Long if market is in green and stop loss is 5800 future.

Nifty won't fall below 5800 as of now. The December series will be in between 5800-6000. Will nifty breaks the range in either direction? One has to wait and see. The settlement today may be in between 5850-5950.

Nifty for 23112010: nifty future will open in red because of global -ve cues. Support 5960 and target most possibly for this settlement 6109. Trade in between. As per data up to this day December settlement will be in red.

For 18112010:

Nifty future levels bullish above 6100
downward target (if nifty future is in red) 5830 5800.

HAPPY DIWALI

EAST OR WEST INDIA IS THE BEST

PUT OR CALL PROFIT SHOULD FALL into your pocket.

New SAMVAT will fetch you more profits.  Expected the SENSEX to move up to 24000 before a big correction to 18000. Then finally we may see 30000 and above after 2 years.  Wish you all success on the EVE of SAMVAT  to SAMVAT trading.    balaji....  

Weekly pivot

S 2               S 1                Pivot            R 1              R 2
5898.60    5980.60       6132.35        6214.35      6366.10

For 25-10-2010 Nifty future go long above   6096  <<<  Short below  6065    >>>     6003.


Tata steel:         633   <<<<   622   >>>>  615


Tata motors:   1155  <<<<    1133     >>>>1113


TCS:  now in long  stop loss 979  >>>    short>>>  959>>>>   944 

Over all market is in danger, one has to check nifty to takes support at 6060/5960. Go long only after nifty crosses 6150 or after strong bounce from 5960.

FII data sold in cash first time in the near term, sold in F&O.

For monday trade: go long in nifty above 6150 but short term trend is down target 5960.
Tata steel go short if breaks 630 target 590 short term trend is down.
Tata motors not long but short below 1150 target 1110.
TCS no long but go short below 950 target 915 and 900.

FII data : bought in cash and sold in index and stocks futures continuously.

For 15-10-2010: Nifty below 6130 short (most possible trend) for a target 5960. For all longs stop loss is 6130. Short only below 6130 nifty.

Tata motors:  Trend is long and short only below 1183 target 1148.

Tata steel: Trend is long and short only below 644 target 619 and below.

As the market is falling from over bought zone of RSI it is expected a dangerous down swing targeting nifty 5960 except a bullish view for the sake of Coal India IPO.

coal india ipo and what is to markets?

Nifty is in small falling channel and the range for the week is 6030 to 6140-6160. If nifty crosses the limits markets move in that direction. Target new high in the forth comming week?? Let us wait and see.

An opinion for nifty settlement !!!!

Nifty may correct from 6115-6120 to 5940-5825 for settlement.

a zone for nifty to close in September 2010 settlement !!!

Nifty zone :5826-5829 and nifty future zone 5840-5845. Let us see what happens for this settlement.

Nifty swing for September settlement

Nifty  has to face resistance at 5640 zone. If this happens then nifty has to fall to 5530-5420 during this settlement. One can plan accordingly to buy a put 5500 @ 20-23 to sell at 5530-5420.

nifty for August settlement

Nifty for August settlement reaches with in one week. Nifty is showing bullish break out above 5500.  Now the Global cues are negative. Nifty resistance lines are at 5550-5590 zone. But as seen from FII buying in cash market and shoot up of prices sector-wise it is expected the markets are entering euphoria phase. Hence, we may have to expect a further breakout above 5600 in this settlement.  In terms of Sensex calculations, above 18K sensex has to touch 19K and retraces up to 18K once again before a big rise on the eve of Diwali 2010. Any how nifty has to cross 5600 and may settle at 5550-5600 zone. Hence, it is expected one can rise a trade by buying 5600 calls in single digit for a selling at Rs25/-.

For September range will be 5700-5400 and 5700.

Nifty on 3-8-2010 closed at 5440 with a discount 5 points.

• FII bought in cash, F&O all segments. 
• Nifty future added 13.3 lacs (bullish).
• But, the overnight closing of DOW at higher levels was not able to push the market as expected, even there was writing of 5400 call ( in the money) considerable volume. This night the DOW facing the profit booking, but we have to wait for its closure.
• Though the FII data is still positive the market is not going up as expected. This means one has to wait for a downward correction first??? (under current is positive) to 5212 nifty future and a bounce up. GO slow as of now.

If nifty corrects first the levels are 5310, 5212 (most possible level), 5130, 5050 future.

Yesterday nifty closed at 5431. Global cues are positive. DOW jumped very high leading all Asian markets to bullish run. FII data positive in cash, index futures and stocks futures. Now the first target for nifty will be 5560 in this run. stop loss 5430.

nifty swings in new settlement

Nifty for tomorrow: Bullish above 5430 future. Bearish below 5340 future target 5230 future. FII data more selling. But buying in cash market. Global cues: If DOW future breaks 10263 the DOW will collapse in medium term leading to our markets to corrects further.

settlement day!!!

Nifty after breaking 5416 level closed at 5398. The outlook turned negative as of now. As seen from more buildup of August call options at 5500 from 5600 the  upper range shifted down. The lower range is also expected at first to touch 5300 level. Relianace sentiment turned down. Target 980 medium term. Banks are required to correct further. Settlement may be around 5320-5350 to 5400. Global cues are negative for tomorrow. Friday nifty has to test 5300 level?

Ready for settlement?

Nifty today reacting to the RBI credit policy closed at 5430. Bullish as of now but no steam. Maximum possibility is that nifty closes above 5400 (may be there itself for settlement with a chance of breaking the 5400 level before the close). As per next month option buildup nifty has to touch both the levels at 5300 and 5600. As the market is not showing more steam as of now it is expected nifty to touch 5300 level first and to rise up ward later. FII data  negative in cash markets for the first time and balanced in F&O. Global cues may not impact the markets for this week. 

Market direction: post 18 K sensex.

Now that sensex crossed 18000 mark and closed above this psychological level on second day too.

Now the events to observe are RBI credit policy, Q1 results analysis. Till now all the results are good. RBI credit policy will be over in a couple of days.

As per F&O data every thing is positive. FII data is positive in cash market segment. Globla cues are turning to positive.  It is expected a positive trading on Monday too but for the next three days of settlement will be flat to downward bias.  Settlement is expected to close at 18K sensex and Nifty 5450-5500 zone.
But, the continuation rally is expected for the next settlement nifty target to 5600 with a stop loss 5300.

Nifty levels for 16-7-2010 : Nifty is in falling channel, support is at 5340 for the day. Bullish above 5400 and bearish below 5325. Break point 5380. Means short below 5380 stop loss same and vice versa.  Global cues are mixed. F&O data is not bearish.

Markets for this week: The nifty for the July series is trading in premium but index is in correction mood. Nifty future added 11+ lac shares. Global cues are not so bullish.
Nifty is in the process of breaking the 5400 barrier, for this the last back walk is going on.  The support levels are 5240-5150. Previous day's trading shows that though the markets corrected the put option prices were fallen from the day's high means the writer is not in worry. Have a bullish view after one/two days back swing for the coming 2 weeks. Wait to have a call option.

NIFTY AT A SMALL CORRECTION STAGE

Nifty yesterday traded as expected up ward though the Inflation data is at higher level and reached resistance levels 5200-5212. Now FII data is +ve, OI data is +ve, bought in cash. As Dow corrected overnight we expect nifty to correct today and may test 5111 maximum. Wait for a chance to buy calls once again. This month target 5290. Next month target 5500.

Now the markets are bullish

Nifty is at 5119. In the month of June markets took upward journey with nifty future discount of 20 points. Due to  this markets were corrected downward and took support at nifty 4935. Now the discount was reduced and all the world markets were weathered for UK problems and took double bottom support in the charts. As seen from FII data and weekly charts markets took up turn. This will be confirmed by nifty breaking 5185 immediately. Then the target for nifty will be 5500 medium term and 5250 short term.

nifty for june

Nifty for June will be as follows. If nifty crosses 5110 then go long with stop loss the same. Else if nifty falls below 5050 then go short with stop loss the same. As per option buildup the nifty swing for June will be 5100 up side to 4800 down side expecting to touch both ends.

Nifty took support at 4850 and bounced up and this will rally up to 5030-5100 before completion of settlement. No major bulishness before nifty crosses 5200. Wait for shorting the market once again.

to rise further

Nifty based on previous day's late recovery and closing at higher level shows that the rise will continue further. Nifty future Open interest added 7+ lakh means long build up. Nifty target will be 5340 initially. Global cues are also strongly bullish.  Important point here to observe is that our FM also gave a statement giving strength to bullish view.
Contra view: IF nifty could not cross 5238 and falls then the upper more may not happen. This may be due to the Inflation figure that is to be released on Friday and triggers major correction linked with week end factor.

range bound !!!

Now that markets cooled off from the previous days huge jump. FII data, F&O data, option writing are showing  that there may not be a big rise now itself.  Global markets are also of the same type.

Nifty may be in the same range in the week 5100-5300.

Spectacular jump

Nifty jumped hugely along with all world indices because of Greece bail out package. This is against to the F&O position buildup. FII data shows shorts covering, F&O data nifty showing short covering reducing the open interest hugely.  Options writing as usual (very high put writing and call covering). However, we may not see continuation rally today. But this rise if crossed 20 day ema 5230 and further nifty has to touch 5424 in future before a big correction.

Nifty if closes above 5230 go further long with a stop loss 5200 target 5400.

weekly review

Now that markets corrected in this week. Nifty touched and bounced one support line. But, as seen from the open interest build up and FII activity and global environment the recovery may not happen immediately though it will be on intraday basis.

Wait for the level of 4865 or two days trading for a bounce. But the run towards yearly high may not be confirmed until nifty crosses 5250.

short term or medium term correction? wait for 4865 breakout

Nifty in this series continues its downward journey and still the situation is weak. Global cues are still weak. It is anticipated further weakness in the coming sessions. Will this lead to short term correction or medium term fall the support at nifty 4865 will say. Wait and watch.

Till then stay in shorts with stop loss nifty 5130.

Market direction

Now, on the first day in the May settlement markets traded up and nifty closed at 5278. But nifty future was in discount means weakness is building in the market.

• 
  
   Global cues are negative.
• 
  
   FII data is not negative.
• 
  
  Nifty futures added with discount means weakness (initially up to testing of 5166 level in first week?)
• 
  
   Heavy writing at 5200 put shows that markets have to take support at this level. If this is so with in one week we may see markets to touch 5500 this month.

Opinion: Short nifty below 5160 target 4980 and wait for the markets to test support at this level. Then go long target 5500. Stop loss for shorts will be 5280 it self.

wait for up swing after RBI policy.

Now nifty corrected well up to 50 day ema. 5165 and closed at 5203.  Global cues are flat to +ve. FII data -ve.  Option writings are bearish. But, if nifty crosses 5240 then go long by clearing shorts with stop loss is 5240 it self.

nifty support levels for this correction.

nifty supports: 5230-5125-5040-4954.
nifty resistances: 5280.

Correction to continue...

Nifty is under correction before a breakout as per Sensex close above 18K. Just now SEBI asked FII something which may increase heat. Also RBI credit policy. Hope markets will correct more with a target of 5000.

Nifty range for the coming weeks: down side - 5250-5210-5200-5000. Up side - 5460-5480-5500 and 5700 zone.

A pause in the run up

Nifty yesterday continued to face resistance at 5400 and drifted downwards further. Global cues are +ve. FII data +ve in cash, squared off longs in F&O. Option writings shows heavy build up in 5400 call and 5300 calls and squared off of 5300 puts.   Expectation: Markets will continue the correction further and if nifty breaks 5300 then 5200-4700. Upper level of 5460 is strong resistance even for today.

A pause at sensex 18K

Trading on previous day shows that market took a pause at 18k of sensex. But all indicators are still positive. Global cues are - ve. Correction is going on. As per weekly charts the high for this week should be 5460. Then correction should be 5300-5180. This may happen on next Monday/Tuesday. Then after Infosys results from 15 th onwards markets may resume upward journey to nifty 5500+ levels. Book profits in Nifty future and call above 5400 with in two days and wait for buying opportunity at lower levels. No major corrections are expected within two months. 

Yes now nifty is in new bull wave.

As seen from the previous day trading nifty crossed a major barrier of 5310 and closed at nifty 5368. Global cues are +ve. FII data +ve. Option writing is +ve.  All is well. Now, nifty will continues to rise up to 5460 and then take a correction before a further rise. Medium term target will be 5700.

New bull wave to start.

As seen from the charts nifty is poised for a break out above 5310 on closing basis. The immediate target for this will be 5460 and a little bit correction on the eve of RBI credit policy review on April 20 th. But, after that correction up to 5200 the markets will come into a new bull wave that may lead to new all time highs during the year.

Global markets are all set for a big rise against to the earlier expectation of correction in the 2010. In such case DOW is meant for a big rise to retrace fully to the new highs during 2010 & 2011. This may lead Indian markets to new highs. In such case nifty new target will be 8400 in the coming 1 & 1/2 year target.

Nifty converged at 4800 but range is +/- 200 points

Nifty for 16-2-10 trading shows that the nifty has to be in the positive territory for today and then rises to 200 points from 4800 for this settlement. If not in the positive territory nifty falls first to the 200 points downside and rises further to this level. Nifty convergence at 4800 along with the FII data to buy side Particularly in F&O leads to higher than 4800 for this settlement.

nifty swings up now...

Nifty as per today's trading swings up. FII data though shows selling in cash but winding of shorts is seen in F&O. Nifty reached 200 dma but not touched. But now the markets will swings up. Targets T1 4950. If we see more pressure and some more statements from Govt sources the up swing may continue further. In some unexpected situation the up swing may be seen even to the next month with a target of nifty 5665.

But, the important point is whether the Indian markets sustain the rise against to the Global markets.

yes..down trend started...

Please see my previous posts that the rally pre/post budget may not be. Yes, as seen from the international markets the medium term / long term trend reversed. Reason may be anything. We have to undergo a major correction before a rise.

Now, in the year 2010 one has to see one lower circuit breakout. The 20% rise gap has to be filled now. Time zone is Sept/Oct '10. One has to wait for taking long term investment idea till the correction. Buy anything at nifty 3600 zone.

No prebudget rally???

As seen from recent trading it is observed that daily range is reduced, market feels very strong resistance, index based stocks are facing profit booking, FII data shows that shorts are being build up in stocks futures in F&O, all international markets are ready for medium term correction. This shows that though q3 results are good the inflation pressure is being felt and RBI may act for stimulus withdrawal now it self. One correction is due for further rise which may be after 6 months??????. The downward correction may be expected around 1000 points in nifty.

Support as per weekly charts 5160 resistance 5260-5360.