29-9-09 trading shows that bullishness is unbelievable as markets faced resistance at 5000 zone but nifty closed above 5000 @5007 +48 points.

• Fii data bought in cash, index futures, stocks futures means bullishness.

• F &o data,, 5000 5100 5200 calls added more and put 5000 4900 added. @ 5000 more call buildup.

• Index futures – 2.1 lakhs stocks futures shorts cleared and longs added.

• Nifty 2 days swing up stop loss 4932. Nifty 4920-5020.Support 4980 – 4930-4900.

Overall view: As US markets bounced on previous day it was expected world markets will take support at current levels and the bull phase will continue but yesterday's night Dow closed in red. Asian markets are flat. SGX nifty is in +ve. But as the writings at 5100,5200 calls was increased the rise may not be strong. But FIIs are bullish. Hence, range is 50-50 from 5000 levels. In this situation one can take both call and put at 100 points distance.

But forgetting all technical view is negative only after nifty breaks support line @4830.Till then range bound trading.

Overnight US markets rise reversed my opinion of correction in Indian stock markets. As the Dow is positive now and SGX nifty +ve, Asian markets are in green. More put option writings shows that nifty will rise further and no put buying/shorts as of now.

FEAR OF MAJOR CORRECTION

Now all the world markets are at correction and if falls further this may lead to major correction in all the markets.

• US S&P if falls below 1033 then falls further and the top may be over.
• Like-wise if nifty falls below 4800 we may expect major correction in the Indian markets (medium term) targeting 1117 points correction from 4800.

Means we may expect an attempt to fill the gap up opening of Nifty upper sealing on the eve of Indian Govt elections. Beware of the fall.

My view is buy one lot of nifty put 4900 and stop loss for this is 5050.

24-9-2009 trading and settlement is over with two days jerks and finally after recovering from the opening lows nifty closed at 4986+16 points.

• FII bought in cash further, sold in stocks futures, bought in index futures.
• F&O nifty open interest added over 23 lakhs.
  
• Option writings shows 4900 puts added 16 lakhs (35.8 lakhs) and 5000 calls added 8.8 lakhs (25 lakhs) means bullishness.
  
• US markets were in red.
  
• Global markets are also in red.
  
• SGX Nifty is in red.

Range of big rising wedge 1117 (5036-3919) break out is at 4796, 10 ema=4930, 20 ema=4850, Fibonacci retracement levels 4775,4612,4480,4347,3920.

23-9-2009 trading closed with a jerk to bulls (as expected one time before close of the settlement) and nifty faced the resistance 5030 closed at 4970 -50 points.

• FII data huge buying in cash, selling in stocks and index futures.
  
• F&O nifty oi added 6 lakhs.
  
• Option writings -21 lakhs in 5000 puts and +2.4 lakhs in 5000 calls.
  
• US markets rised and closed in red by loosing 81 points.(Bullish breakout of resistance was weeded out).
  
• Global cues are red.
• SGX nifty is in red.
  

Over all view: today is settlement day and nifty may close between 4900-5000. Rising wedge breakout will be 4820. But parabolic SAR is at 4910. Lower support levels will be 4800-4530-4140(may not anticipate at present situation).

• As per news papers reports World bank is providing loan of $2 Billion to public sector banks (Bullish view from these levels).
  
• Banks are encouraging short term loans as having huge liquidity.
  
• FM statement says-" The Government is keen on continuing with the low-interest rate regime till the signs of global economic recovery become stronger".
  

As is evident from huge buying from fii in cash market (steep increase) and with the other news it is anticipated that the present levels may not be top one and even after some correction we may see higher levels in immediate future. Long term bullish view expecting a new high with in six months.

22-9-2009 trading shows that the controlled rise was still on and nifty closed at 5020+44 points. A close above 5000 created history. Even the settlement jerks to downside were not given till today.

• FIIs bought in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
• Consistent buying by FIIs in cash is a bullish phenomena to be continued.
  
• F&O nifty futures OI 10 lakhs added.
  
• Options writings 5000 puts 9 lakhs added and 5100 calls 8 lakhs added.
• US markets are +ve but Global cues are -ve.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Overall view: Nifty Open interest is concentrated at 5000-5100 and nifty may close in between these levels for settlement. Addition of Open interest in nifty futures is bullish indication and as expected one may buy 5200 calls of next month. (October range is 4800-5300 expecting markets to touch both the levels.)

18-9-2009 trading was range bound with further unwinding of September series and carry over to next month. Nifty traded weak and closed in little green. Nifty is at 4976+10 points.

• FIIs huge buying in cash, selling in index and stocks futures,
• F&O nifty futures over all reduction of OI -6 lakhs means no further rise in this series.
  
• Option writings shows more put writings further.
  
• US markets are -ve,
  
• Global cues -ve to flat.
  
• SGX nifty is -ve.

Over all view: Markets may be in the range bound trades for the settlement. Nifty bullish above 5030 bearish below 4930.But as it is expected continuation of bullishness for the next settlement one can plan for call buying on the settlement day.

17-9-2009 trading shows that the nifty speed was halted at 5000 and nifty closed at 4966+8 points.

• FII bought in cash, sold in index and stocks futures.
  
• F&O data nifty futures Open interest was decreased means rise is stopped.
  
• Option writing shows that nifty is converging at 4900 for settlement.
  
• US markets were at -ve.
  
• Global markets are -ve. SGX nifty -ve.
• Negative divergence in daily charts means correction for this rise is on the way.
  

Over all view: Now that nifty is facing unwinding pressures in the current series and it may end around 4900 +/- 50 points. Very big rise was seen in many stocks which requires considerable correction before further rise. But lower support level is just around 100 points. Let us see how far correction will happen in stocks prices with in the 100 points fall. As the over all sentiment is bullish for Diwali one has to wait and watch for further rise that may be after end the of the current settlement. Markets will be Range bound for the present week and next week.

• As open interest in 4800 put of October (17.8 lakh) is increasing one may expect the markets to correct up to 4800 levels before a big rise.

16-9-2009 trading shows the continuation momentum.

• Nifty closed at 4958+66 points.
  
• FII data, F&O data, option writings are all fully bullish.
  
• US markets and Global cues.
  

• SGX nifty are +ve.

Nothing to look down. But for settlement the markets will be bullish even up to Diwali and as expected one may see Sensex 18000 +.

One can buy calls 5200,5300 of October as of now.

15-9-2009 trading resumed the bullish trend with out giving any lower jerk and nifty closed at 4892+83 points. FII data, F&O data, Option writing all are showing renewed bullishness as of now. US markets, Global markets, SGX nifty are in green. Markets will go up further with intra day jerks. Target 5200-5300 next month.

New posts could not be written because of ill health. And now I am continuing the blog posts.

As seen from the previous day's trading the markets are just passing on the time. Operators target is just absorbing of option premium. Nifty traded a little bit downwards and nifty closed at 4808-21 points. FII data sold small range in cash, sold in index futures and bought in stocks futures. US markets are +ve. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is flat to - ve as of now. Technical indicators are just downing from over bought zone.

Over all view: The breakout of nifty 4730 could not sustain above 4880 and from there markets are drifting downwards. It is expected that nifty may test the 4730 again and take upward journey once again for closing the settlement around 4900 zone.

Alert : Activity is seen in October options 5200-5300 calls and 4400-4500 puts. Hence, markets will make journey to both the levels in the next month.

Some news: list of US banks closed

US recovery difficult as jobless rate hits 9.7

Double-dip recession risk rising: El-Erian

Investors Pulled $4.95 Billion From Equity Funds Last Week, Added to Bonds

I feel that as seen from the above news links one can understand that the problems are not yet over and we may see further bear phase as all the international markets will undergo for double dip recessions. One can not be confident over the stock investments as of now. It is expected 2010 will be in down trend.

3-9-2009 trading shows that though the world, Shanghai were in green our markets positive opening could not sustain and closed at 4594-14 points. (This is because of FII heavy short buildup in index and stocks futures on previous day).

• FII sold in cash, index, stocks futures but to a smaller extent.
  
• F&O nifty future added a round figure of 6 lakhs (?).
  
• Option writings heavy 4700 call and some 4600 put writing shows that range is shrinking.
  
• US markets closed in +ve just for closing.
  
• Global markets are flat.
• SGX nifty is + ve.

• Technical indicators are continuing downward.

Over all view: As nifty is nearing the strong support line ie., nifty 4550 one should be more cautious. As we expected that for the initial activity of options of puts @4500 and calls @4900,5000 at the starting of the series, nifty has to make journey to both the extremes, one side level is reaching means we may expect nifty to rise and reach 4900-5000 in near future, may be in one week. If nifty could not cross 4700 zone in the next week and breaks down side support line of 4550 one can expect the upper level is history.

2-9-2009 trading shows that the range bound trading with negative closing. Nifty closed at 4608.
FII sold in cash, F&O too. F&O data is deletion of positions and addition of shorts in some stocks futures. US markets were in consolidated and in red expected the rise is over.

Over all view: As Global cues are +ve as of now.
Nifty may take support within one or two days to have a considerable rally for over a week. Beware of shorts as of now. Stop loss for longs is nifty 4520.

1-9-2009 trading shows that though the markets tried to break the resistance barrier of 4730 could not make it for closing, loosing its steam nifty closed at 4625-37 points.

• FII sold in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added 22.8 lakhs (very heavy?). (Bloom berg data is showing that these additions are by buy orders?)
  
• Options-- huge 4700,4800 calls writing and some 4600 calls writing but huge build up of 4600 puts and good 4700 puts writing too.
• US markets are started drifting.
  
• Global markets are in red.
  
• SGX nifty is in red.
  
• Technical indicators continued the downward journey.

Over all view: As felt the steam for bullishness was not build up at 4730 zone but drifted down with speed. International markets pressures were build up now. Heavy build up in nifty futures was seen with huge addition. Though the heavy put writing over 40 lakhs at 4600 feels support to markets at these levels, if we read linked with nifty futures build up this is all may be for a big fall. Aberration to this is FIIs were still long in index futures. One thing is sure markets will take drastic move from these levels in either direction.
Markets may break 4580 today.

bear phase re-started???

31-8-2009 trading shows that the Shanghai pressures were felt and nifty closed at 4662-70 points.

• FII sold in cash, sold in stock futures but bought in index futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added further 11 lakhs (continuous addition above 4600 may be to down side), options writings at 4600 puts and 4700 calls.
  
• US markets are weak, Global markets today are at flat and Shanghai too just changing colours at flat.
• Technical indicators turned downwards just now but we have to check them with volume buildup for one or two days.
• SGX nifty is in green as of now.
  

Over all view: As earlier felt the bullish buildup was not seen today also. Means one can confirm that the operators are not interested/able to rise markets from this levels. May be due to the international markets pressures our markets are not able to go up for ever. All the markets are to enter in fresh downward trend (First in this is SHANGHAI)(stop loss is nifty 4750 and sensex 16000 with volumes). If this will be true one can trade some thing (may be nifty futures one lot) to downside for a target of NIFTY 1700-1800 within six months. Carry over shorts for six months to achieve this target. But with some intermediate rises.

DO NOT believe the Green on the screen from now onwards. OR read our markets with international markets.