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22 September, 2008

nearing settlement...

As expected markets lost its steam and cooled/swallowed premiums of puts/calls options. Nifty closed at 4223 (-22) sensex at 13995 (-47). FII data + 138 cr in cash, long in index futures 12.5 lakh shares, long in stock futures 17504 contracts. Bullish for the past three days. This may reflect in strong recovery in the next month I week or for this month settlement. Nifty future open interest net addition to the extent of 7.57 lakhs. More writings were seen in September put options at nifty 4200 and below levels than call options. In most of the stock futures addition in shorts for this month and for the next month also were observed. (A contradictory position when compared with FII position buildup ) Dow is now trading at -200 points which may turn -ve Asian markets for the next day.

When we observe the points FII build up + ve on one side (one point here is our PM will be in US for some period for signing the 123 agreement which may be a cue for bullish tradings for some days) and F&O settlement along with -ve global cues on the other side, it may be good enough for trading as buying puts for tomorrow up to closing and go for call options. A bounce may be expected for settlement closing and this may lead to short term rally for the next month first week.
Lower levels for nifty 4170-4080 only. GO LONG at nifty 4080 may be buy calls 4200 below Rs20/-

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