momentum to continue...

Yesterday nifty closed at 2979 taking intra day support from 2900.

A good signal for our expectation. 

Now markets have to move up at least by taking previous day lows as support.

I have no view for down side at least for two weeks.

A strong resistance will be at 3300.Down swing may be up to 3150.

2800 nifty support range.

Yesterday nifty took support at 2813, bounced up and closed at 2922, means a very good support. It clearly indicates the chances of rise what we are expected.  News is also being cooked. Now, nifty has to sustain the support at 2900 range and go ahead. This means our targets for nifty 3100-3200-3350 and above still holds good.  In one way the markets may not fall in January and even in February. 

major support broken...

While correcting the  market for December series settlement a major support 2916 was broken by closing nifty at 2857. Hence the upper level predictions are not expected as of now. But as the predictions are based on the expected news development we have to wait and see the trend of the market.  Long expectations will get hope only after nifty crosses 2920 once again.   If nifty brakes 2770  the only trend is to down side and there may be a new low expectations. Major expected events to down side: War and Global negatives. Up side the 2 nd stimulus package, oil price cut, news of elections & packages and operator's  need for exit at higher levels.

NIFTY ON SUPPORT LINE

Now after touching 50 dma nifty is at 20 dma 2916.. If it takes support the most probable target will be 3350. Required news will be issued by some authorities suitably. A curtain raiser for major trap rally?..

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES...

Trading on previous day shows bullishness nature in the markets. Though markets may swing up wards  for the next settlement we may see some shrinking for settlement in the range nifty 3250-2900. Hence one may trade accordingly. The rise before markets test low 2900-3000 will be only 3250 +/- 30. After this correction one may take longs in nifty after checking the international news...

Bullish.....

Support of nifty 2922 that took today is a clear cut signal for more strength to come in the next 2 to 3 weeks. A very strong closing. Corrections may be intermitent but rally up to nifty 3550 - correction - 3750 - 3800 - 3850.. For the next settlement. Later ..... Super --vity.

SHIFTING CORRECTION?...?

I feel the fall yesterday as shifting correction till the level nifty 2860 and markets may bounce for settlement from Friday's second half.  Closing may be around nifty 3000. But the chances of bullishness nature for the first week of next month is still + ve.  

SATYAM EFFECT ON NIFTY???

Abrakadabra... In the disturbing economic world every one is suffering from analysis but in between we are seeing the episode of satyam comp (buying its promoter's other company at the angry of mutual fund holders). ADR satyam is falling above 50%... then what about satyam share tomorrow?... All things are bullish even now.  OI data is + ve. Global cues + ve. Then if markets take a jerk because of satyam.. it is a great chance for call buyers... enjoy from the fall by buying calls even for this month or for next month. There is a chance of crossing nifty first 3200 and then for the next month 3500-3550.  Think for super shorts at that level in the next month.  Let us enjoy satyam episode tomorrow.

Update in the next morning...

AND AT LAST SATYAM CANCELS ITS DEAL !!! & Fed cuts its rate to min. levels. Bullish.. Bullish..Bullish..

a small dip??

Now, stochastic, rsi, mfi are showing over bought signal and so our markets may take a small dip at this level. But as there is no major change in open interest, and some package news to follow from our govt, we may stick on to the view of bullish closing for this settlement. Hence, one may wait or take calls at lower levels if so markets may close above 3000 nifty for this month. 

BULLISH TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT MONTH....???

I took a bullish view for the next month first two weeks and even to this month settlement may be in bullish nature after a considerable correction in the 2nd part of week. This may a last trap rally for small and medium term investors (who are with money on side ways for bottom fishing).  This rally swallows small investors' money and markets will go for bottom out which may be a prolonged slow bare phase.  This may be for one to 1 & half years.  

Levels for this rally may be seen from the chart. Monday and tuesday may be bullish and next bearish but later week market will be bullish and closing may be above nifty 3000-3200.

bullishness to continue...

5 day charts shows that the rising speed is disappeared but the support trend line is still intact. FII data is bullish. Global cues are - ve. short only if nifty breaks 2880 else take it as an opportunity for going long.

RESISTANCE CROSSED

Yesterday nifty crossed a major resistance 2860 and closed +5% 2928. Huge build up in open interest is a concern. FII data is showing bulishness. Heavy writing of puts are showing a positive direction to the markets and the fast stochastic is at over bought zone means the rise may be for one day. Hence one may book profits in calls at further rise of 5% in nifty and wait for weakness to short. Presently there is no chance to think for down side. Let us think in the second half of friday.

STILL IN THE RANGE

Good morning. I came from North India tour for the past one week. Hence I could not update the blog. Now, I want to say that as per the monthly chart if nifty crosses 2550 to down side we just see a major down slide. Indicators are from Reliance stock. One huge open interest addition at these levels (20%) and falling of international crude prices, reduction of import duty on nafta make the share week forecast further. Also there may not be a good global cues to come. Maximum of Nifty 3050/3150 will come or not a big question. Huge open interest build up at nifty put 2500 level also shows that the level may breaks as we are in bare phase. (On earlier occasions huge open interest at puts and the markets were fallen below that level) One can buy 3000 call and 25oo put.

December markets-influenced by Q3 results

We started fresh f & o series. Dec is to be influenced by Q3 results expectations - weak. Hence markets should fall month on month. But as the option writings to take place markets will go on both the directions from this point & finally go down for end of month closing. Present trend is based on range written on previous post. If market goes up 200 points buy put else if markets goes down 200 points buy calls for end of first week. First follow the range break out on the chart of previous post.

TARGET SETTLEMENT.

free stock charts from in.advfn.com

Today's markets are converging to a settlement point taking the nifty 2650 as support and took 100 point rally. A good closing and may lead to further lead even for settlement. As per hourly chart showed above markets may close between parallel line. nifty may be 2690-2860. If markets crosses the parallel lines upward - bullish else bearish.

Down fall continues ???

Yesterday markets turned down the opening steam and lost 2% to close nifty at 2654. Sensex is below 9000. This shows that the fall is still continuing and the rise earlier is just to role over to next month derivatives. If it is  the case markets will have to close at lower levels from now.  This will result that any small rally expected for next month may not be there. As seen from US markets the fresh bail-out package is not boosting the sentiment.   DOW is at a flat close. Nikkei is presently at -100. Don't play to up side as of now. Short next month future and buy this month in the money call for settlement.

 Yesterday's close - 5% = 2521 and future may stay at 2500 level (lower for today???)

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES???

Previous day's trades are just range bound but not at expected rally.  Nifty is just +15 points. Nifty future additions are more = bullish. FII F & O bullish but sold in cash. FM & SEBI statements are showing that some rally may come immediately but after the settlement. US markets are + ve with package of Citi group. This may lead + ve markets around the world tomorrow. If nifty crosses 2860-2880  then markets are bullish else may fall for settlement itself. 

Reversal is part of settlement pressures?

Trading on previous day shows that huge short covering by operators with a view to create good will in the markets.  As per stochastic market is in short term bull phase and it may last for two days. Nifty levels as per hourly chart are that 2750-2800-2880-3000-3150. As the F & O settlement is going on we may not expect a full range of bull run. It may reverse back may be at 2800-2880 and even markets may close at lower levels.  There are sufficient - ve news every day for a major down fall.  

DOWN---DOWN---DOWN...

Yesterday's markets shows that after opening at -5% it has showed some support and closed at nifty 2550. Though stochastic is at low the RSI is still at 45. RSI has to come down before markets goes up. Markets are directing towards 100% retracement to nifty 2250 and may form a double bottom. There RSI may be at a low for a good reversal of markets. Hence, markets may trade in green for December series for first 2 weeks. Target may be nifty 2850. As of now one can buy 2300 put even today. If markets goes up in F&O settlement pressures before touching new low one can check for put buying for this series settlement. Means, try for buying puts even on Tuesday. Expected closing for this series : if markets take double bottom then closing at nifty 2500 (bottom to top) else 2300 (top to bottom). Nifty OI + means shorts & FII F&O OI -ve means shorts. US down & Global down. Then what next down to down down.

Double bottom?

Markets are at severe pressure of exit and may test the new lows immediately . If Nifty breaks 2510 Parabolic SAR reverses and say to short in the daily charts and gives profit also. Hence, one can short and wait. All news for a rally is false and we can trade by the reality of chart formations. Stochastics is showing for at least one day fall. At present the US markets are at steep fall leading to further steep fall in all other markets. Better not to trade on long side even if there is a chance of profit. One can first buy a put and if markets take support at 2510 level and crosses 2550 then exit in the put. If 61.8 % retracement crosses i e nifty already breached the level of 2630 then the target may be 100% i e ., 2250.

Yesterday's trading shows that the fall continues and as per stochastics markets may fall for another one day or two. But later we may expect at least 200 points rally in nifty even for the sake of settlement. In reliance some buying is seen and that may precipitate in one day. Any how one may exit shorts and concentrate in calls. Down levels nifty 2630-2515. Resistance 2860-2950. Some cooking is going on in RBI for measures. Even in US any thing good news comes out regarding bail out package the rallies may be in the coming weeks. May be December first half may be in greenish arena?

Range bound + Stock exit

As we observe the market trend in these days priority is given for exit of positions by big players. But as was expected there was no action to support the market from any of our DIIs. Every one knows that our economy is also in recession. Then who will buy now?. As traders we are just observing the markets otherwise we also won't see the market for at least one year. Horrifying news is coming every day. O K.

Now observe the market if nifty goes + ve maximum range may be 2950 (as per swing in the falling channel on the daily/hourly charts). If markets are in red exit longs & short nifty. Strong support may come at nifty 2630.

As per Reliance share if this is above 1200 next 1300 & markets will go up to 2950 if reliance is -ve every thing is negative.
(Pl view the Open Interest changes link on the right side for clear oi changes and comments.)

EVENT EFFECT? ! ?

Yesterday markets continued their journey to downside. O K. Now the G20 international meet is going on and the news from this meet will influence the markets for the next week. Hence, it is better not to have any positions to downside  to the end of the day and just go by  intraday charts for the next week. As we are at down levels from the previous week we may expect a rise in the next week. The resistances are nifty 2970-3150-3240. Support levels nifty 2750-2630-new low. Monday & Tuesday should be +ve for the reversal of markets next week. If markets are +ve next day one can  buy nifty calls 3400.

Reliance Open interest is at high addition at lower levels which may lead the markets to +ve side for the next week.

continues...

Yesterday's trades shows that the fall continues. If there is any bullishness further the markets should have crossed the nifty 3240 level by this time but broken down the strong level of nifty 2860 on closing basis. Now the journey is to down side and it is being supported by the weak global cues. Now US markets -5% & Asian markets - ve. Then we have to buy even 2500 puts but for sure profit sake one may buy only 2700 puts even in small intra day rally. FII data F & O -ve and cash Market - ve. Call writing at 2900 and puts Open interest decrease at all levels.

On previous day US markets were + 6% . Asian markets are also in + ve Hence our markets may also in + ve but one can go short after 12 or 1 pm. Better not to go long. If any one wants to trade on long just go by intra day charts with strict stop loss.

MARKETS TO NEW LOWS ????

As expected markets were drifted downward. Nifty sheds 200+ i.e., more than the previous day's rise. It clearly shows that the swing reversal from 2860 nifty was weeded out before reaching the previous peak of nifty 3240.  This means that the retracement of 1000 points relief rally continues now & nifty may come down continuously 2860-2750-2630.  Later if nothing is developed the fall may continues and creates new low in this drifting itself.  Let us see what happens.  FII data and Nifty open interest shows no change to bullishness. One can have shorts and even can add after market breaks 2860-2800 by buying 2500 puts. 

Sensex chart clearly shows the continuation of fall. Reliance is also on the clear down side which is the driving force of the markets.

CHINA SUPPORT

Yesterday global markets were on the steam of stimulus package that was declared by China. A very good rise in Indian markets also. Nifty is at 3148 a +175 points. Very huge addition 13 lacks of nifty future at the end of the day trades. (A  -ve feeling  as the addition is at high levels). FII s were not on selling side. We have seen from US and Asian markets that the steam for today may not sustain. If markets open at high level one may book profits and if markets are in red one can buy 3000 put. 

On Monday if nifty crosses 3100 up side it will go 3250-3500 also but if it goes to red i.e., below 2973 a steep fall below 2500 is expected. A good chance for a trader on both sides. up side 150 points minimum and down side 400 + +.  As of now markets are expected to open in green for the next day then one can go short and put a stop loss 3100.

FALL FOLLOWS...

Yesterday's market is just a continuation of the swing reversal. But in the end game operators made jerks to the market by bringing the nifty to green and hitting once again. I feel that markets will fall now itself and continues down. Some big players reversed their positions in the last hour trades. Continue your positions to down side. Let us wait and watch at support levels as per retracement and look for steep fall in call prices. Happy downtown journey. 

Swing reversal ?? ?? ???

Markets had a swing reversal at nifty 3240 range and closed at nifty 2995 a -5%. One might have taken some thing to down side. O K. One point is that our operators have taken the markets to the exact resistance level to the event of US Pres election result and reversed the positions. Otherwise why that much of speed in the relief rally? O K. As a trader every thing is not necessary except the catching of swing reversal.

If we consider the swing reversal of markets from 2250 to 3250 a 1000 points rally in nifty which may retrace back 1/3 or 1/2 or 2/3. that is all. Exact values are noted in the chart. Try to observe caution at the levels and book profits accordingly.

FII s are not on down side as of now. Hence, we may not expect to brake the bottom in this month. One has to check for call buying on some day and markets may be in the range bound and this settlement may finish at 3000 +/- 200 points.
SUPPORT LEVELS 2860 -2750 -2630 where one has to check and book profits on shorts and go for calls may be 3200 but markets may not cross this level. Only for trading.

Election effect

Yesterday markets recovered in last hour trades and closed high nifty at 3142 +98 pts. Huge build up in nifty future and FIIs were still long in futures. But in this cash markets FII & DII both sold??? Today all the markets are celebrating the US election eve and all are and will be in green. Our markets are nearing a strong resistance level ie., nifty 3200-3250. Stochastics is at over bought zone. FM efforts with the PSU banks are good and lending rates are to come down soon. But the problem of liquidity will persists. So this greenish light in the entire world may stay for this week. If markets crosses nifty above 3250, this month markets may not fall below 3000. Hence one has to go for puts at 3000 levels only Let us see what happens. FII & other DII selling was at low pace now and it may continue at any time.

Many negatiaves fundamentally.

Yesterday's trading is a reaction for RBI's actions. O K. PM's meeting with industrialists reveal that our PM asked not to go for lay-offs in the industry. Job losses are on and increasing in India too. Foreign returns are increasing with no immediate provision of jobs in India. Many many and many indications that we are at dangerous situation. In this situation what to do as an investor: One has to wait for clear turn around in the industry which may not occur in the forthcoming 2 years. If some one is having stock holding this is the best time to off load even at these rates. Else on has to short nifty one lot and role over for 3 to 6 months which may fetch 1000 points (50 x 1000 = 50000 profit). As a trader one has to short nifty at nifty 3050 + + levels. Steam may be over today itself??? SGX nifty is not so bullish as of now. FII o i is showing that they were not yet turned bearish and it may take one or two days. One can accumulate puts at 2900. In this settlement till now we have seen bullish movements then the bearnish movements may stay for more than 2 weeks. Markets must touch at lease nifty 2700 immediately.

GREENISH UNCERTAINTIES

Trading on previous day suggests that bounce back rally is at good pace with the news of RBI actions. That was over now. Our Regulators, FM and PM are all at work for providing liquidity in to the  monetary system. US markets are showing that the slow rise  may be up to  completion of the elections. Hence, our markets may rally up to wednesday first hour. Nifty resistance levels 3050-3200.

Observations: 1. In a discussion in CNBC one person expressed that another 15 to 30 billion dollars may go out in this month. 2. Job cuts are strongly expected in India Inc. 3. The intensity problem around the world was still not understood. 4. IMF says that money required for the struggling economies of India & China. 5. Citi bank declared Q3 losses in credit card defaulters account (Another tip of the IceBerg.). 6. FCCB conversions by India inc for this month are also more, which is burdensome due to adverse markets & dollar rate. 7. NDTV shows that Kamath, concerned over the interest rates in 'high teens'  warns of Corporate defaults beginning with small and medium enterprises couldn’t be ruled out. As per the expressed few items of news we are frightened about stock markets. Then what is the real picture ? Have a look at downside trades. 

SOME POSITIVES

Today markets may open huge +ve as Singapore nifty is trading at + 8%. O K. F & O data is showing + ve potential. But selling from FII was not stopped. Hence, one may book profits in longs and can go shorts today itself. Max level for nifty may be up to 3050-2950.

VERY GOOD SENTMENT.

Very good sentiment persisted on the eve of moorat trading in Indian stock markets along with global markets. Dow was also at huge jump yesterday. Asian markets are also huge + ve. Singapore Nifty is at 2780. So the opening trades are at 2800 nifty. But what happens to settlement? We may expect very good settlement for this month after great losses. Fluid situation in the international markets still exists. We can not expect what happens in the near future. If any one buys stocks treat them for trading only. Trade long for today and at the end one may hedge the positions with a put. For the next month buy nifty future and buy spot put.

HAPPY DIWALI - HAPPY MOORAT TRADING-

I wish you all very happy diwali & happy moorat trading.  I wish all my friends with huge investments to see bright lights of wealth on their family from moorat to moorat i.e., in 2009. 

For today's trades: 

Markets bounced very well at around nifty 2300 (2254) and closed at 2524. A remarkable recovery of 10% from lower levels with a sign of happiness (at least for moorat trading). Though DOW closed lowest yesterday the future dow is trading +ve at present.  Asian markets were in +ve. F & O data shows that FII were long in index futures.  Settlement pressures are on. Thinking all we may feel that today we may trade + ve and close even higher to open +ve tomorrow. But for closing of settlement any thing may happen. Kindly exit/ book profits any at least tomorrow morning trades.  What happens to the DOW tomorrow we don't know. New financial problems are creeping up internationally which may result further down turn in all the markets. Bottom may be sensex 6500.  Let us wait and see. One may buy shares for investments in the month of December 2008. One may buy 2400 put and 2800 call next month series.

DOWN LEVEL DROWNED???

If you squeeze tomato you will get some juice but if you do the same the world (globe) you will get the red carrot juice -like- through investors eyes. You cannot imagine the feel of the individual small investors.  If any one is with surplus money O K. But for middle class small investors there was no recipe.  The speed with which markets were fallen yesterday shows that the bottom was drowned and we have to search for it in the Pacific ocean. 

 But I feel the bottom may be nifty 2300 and the range for trade for further months may be max 400 points upside. One for a trading purpose can buy and sell some stocks that too index based for quick gains.  

FUNDAMENTALS, the spelling was broken and we have to construct it later. BOOK VALUE is history the stock market and its prices are future predictions.  Like some TV channels says that the prices are attractive at these levels are not at all good. The fall should be time tested at least for a quarter to enter for investment/average buying. If everything not goes unwell one may go for long at Nifty 2300 level.

F & O data is showing huge shorts into the system that may lead further down turn to the markets.

LAST BUT ONE ? ??? ?

Our markets reached last but one stage i.e., 2900 before a final (compared with a short term trading range) nifty 2600, may be before this settlement???. Addition of Open Interest in November series is dangerous to longs. Hence markets will go First to down side before going up side. Nifty closed at 2943 after touching low of 2917. Now Dow is trading +ve. Today's Global markets were all at - ve zone. Our FM statement regarding FII stock lending reversal is not fully clear as per time frame. Inflation is getting reduced. Petroleum minister's statement to reduce rates in the next week is also a +ve factor. RBI credit policy ???.

So we may see many big swings intra day for the coming weeks which gives an opportunity for option traders October series. Just buy below 20 price and sell at 60 + during the coming week. But be biased to down sides only.

May be we see a big run in the first 2 weeks in next month. Be prepared for buying 3300 calls November series below Rs40 to sell them 5 times +.

Get ready for down trades in the journey to nifty 2900-3050-2600 and -2900-3200-3500.

This is all my view but the big intra day swings are creating more pain to swing positional traders. Hence, one may confine to intra day option trades based on intra day charts than swing positional trades until nifty tests 2600 ( may be 2 times ) next weeks.

FALL CONTINUES..

Yesterday's markets shows that a renewed selling around the globe.  Dow(n) continues today too.  We will be further - 5% today and touch nifty 2900. No specific boost from FII meeting with SEBI.  If any one wants to play to downside that is only considering the settlement pressures. Trade by intraday charts only.  If you feel anything dead cheep in call rates go for calls at throw away prices to test the luck. In my view NIFTY 2600 -2500 will be a range for more time to markets.

I want to trade to long today from 2900 to 3000 nifty only.

SETTLEMENT ROLE OVER

Markets opened and closed in + ve zone  as expected and the f & o statistics were also showing the a good role over particularly in Nifty future. Short covering and long positions by FIIs was observed in F & O. Presently, market is influenced by one FII selling and second is our regulator's efforts to provide liquidity to DIIs.  Some news is on TV channels that a ban on short sale is imminent.  

US markets are in red But we have to see the closing.  I feel that though the Global cues may be of anything tomorrow (opening may be - ve) our markets will move up ward in the wedge shown in yesterday's post and the target is still nifty 3450-3470. But for settlement markets are targeting to the range of nifty 3200-3400. One may think of reversal at nifty 3450.

+ve developments? ! ? !

Yesterday's trades shows a violent fluctuations in the market.  This may be due to some swing reversal attempts/role-overs.  Now that we are at sensex 10000 range which is a psychological barrier for one and all.  However, in the international markets also very heavy efforts were on to maintain the liquidity and pave a way for confidence in the common investors. Repo rate cut by RBI and expected short sale ban by SEBI at any point of time are good to markets.  Our PM & FM are also giving statements regarding the stability of economy/ banking system.

One way to speak our markets were expected to take temporary support at these levels. The falling wedge shows that nifty will be bullish only after 3470. Even one may take chance to short market at nifty 3450 target will be lower edge of wedge/ new low (2900) for settlement. If nifty breaks the upper level of 3470 then market may go up to 3650 or more depending on the FII positions.

At present Asian markets are +ve & SGX nifty +ve and markets will open in +ve and may close in +ve for today.

YES -ITs BELOW 10 K...

what a slide? STEAM is not valid even to one day. A huge fall in heavy weights led the sensex below 10 k. Then, I feel, for a support nifty may have to touch the lower parallel line in the below chart given in previous post, may be in the next week. the reversal may be max up to nifty 2900 - 3200.

Dow was also in -ve closing on Friday. Asian markets may also be in -ve tradeing for monday. Hence, our markets may also be in gap down opening. As some support measures are on for Mutual Funds, we may not expect huge selling. Be careful for bind short in the market. Intra day trend is important from now onwards. As far as sensex point of view level will be 8800. Nifty level is 2900.

SENSEX 10 K STRUGGLE ??? HOW MANY DAYS???

Our heads of regulating bodies are at severe struggle than ever before to provide liquidity in banking system. Though the fundamentals will erode as time goes on the present pressures on the markets are heavy selling by FII coupled with the very heavy redemption pressures from our Mutual funds.

On the one side our Govt agencies are working well to provide liquidity by cutting the CRR rate. A chance of repo rate cut is also there. Latest curb on PSUs not to press for redemption from any mutual fund investments is also of the same nature of measures by our Govt. Very good efforts. But the other side of the coin is to ease pressures from FII out flows and that is not in our hands.

Markets should come down as time goes on if not this week/month but on the next week/ month. War in world economy is not yet over but in the middle only. After some time only clarity will emerge.

For our markets as the strong recovery of our markets from sensex 10000 and yesterday's Dow +ve closing , Asian markets +ve trading shows we also trade in +ve territory. Nifty levels 3440 - 3650 upside and 3200 down side. If nifty comes below 3200 it will close below 3000.

Let us trade on intra day basis for the week on long side. After markets not sustaining at higher levels i.e., 3650 we may target to trade to down side by buying puts at 3400 level.

To day markets are on long side only. Intra day shorts for small ranges.

CONTINUATION OF FALL...

Markets are at fast unwinding pace by FII till now but to this our mutual funds were also joined because of redemption pressures. High net worth investors are unwinding. Now the entire wind in the markets is unwinding. No light at the other end of the tunnel. Just play to downside. This swing may lead our markets up to nifty 2600 with a pause at 2900 ( may be for settlement pressures).

At nifty 2600 this unwinding may come reduced because of huge value diminishing. Here the late rally may lead up to nifty 3000/3200. From here our journey will be based on fundamental values diminishing and slow journey to market levels up to 2200-2000-1800 nifty over a period of six/ twelve months.

One hope for a bounce is that a double bottom formation at 3200. RBI measures. In this tsunami the measures are not effective from redemption pressures. Hence, if we miss the jerks at 3200 levels we can safely travel up to 2600 nifty may be into next month settlement.

Plan your journey into next month settlement target nifty 2600. Best of luck.

NO CHANGE IN FUNDAMENTALS ?? THEN WHY???

The bounce from nifty 3200 was weeded out yesterday. A 3%  fall from opening highs and closed at 3519.  It is not at all  good for a rally in the markets.  Then why FIIs bought in cash markets and in F&O?.  Why our DII s sold in cash markets?.  In a fall our DIIs helped and rescued our markets from not creating history from lower circuit breaks for two sessions and immediately they turned to selling ... a big question....  Yesterday's F & O data shows lose of nifty premium and huge addition of nifty future to the extent of 18 lacks in a fully drifting market signals further fall is imminent. Call option rates were fully fallen and no demand buying .  Also we have not seen any fear in huge 4100 put positions while markets were up for two days.  This shows that the fall may be imminent. 

One may be in puts at least as a hedging position.  But our destinations are at downside.

SWING REVERSAL AND/OR MORE???

Now that markets took support at nifty 3200 and reversed from there because of our regulator's struggle. International markets were also in the same position.  But, yesterday also our FII sold stocks in cash though they bought in F & O.  Nifty future is in huge premium and also reduced O I a good sign for markets raise.  OK .  Huge rally in DOW, and in other international markets gives hope that this rise may not be for one day or two.  Let us wait and watch whether our FII will stop selling in cash markets.  Our action is that as per retracement levels our markets will go up. Just see the chart for levels for nifty & sensex.  One can buy calls treating the 61% level as target at first.  Latter we will study and decide.

YES IT IS 2900 NIFTY....

Today's trades shows that we have just missed the lower circuit break. May be our operators are feeling any sentiment to go for lower circuit break. O K. Closing of our markets near to lower levels of today's range & the trading of DOW future at present shows that on the next day also we may see very huge lower opening and nifty may touch below 3000. If we assume that our markets take support (very temporarily) at Nifty 2900-3000 one may buy 3400 calls or 3600 calls. This time we may see one /two days +ve closings next week. Latter we don't know.

We are just near to Nifty 2600. A couple of weeks ???????????

Full comments on today's F & O trades will be on the next day.

DON'T THINK --JUST SEE IT

As per previous day's trades I felt that our markets have taken a swing reversal at Nifty 3333 low and closed at 3513.  But the F & O data and the global cues says that don't predict the lows and just see it what ever happens.  Previous day's FM statements and DII buy out resulted in recovery of our markets from lows.  But, will our DII s give the same support today.   We missed the lower circuit yesterday but for today?  ?  ?.   One action from our RBI is another CRR cut & PLR cut ?.

Yes really it is an unprecedented situation in the world and every country has to swallow its part. Let us wait and see what happens on the silver screen ( on the ticker screen) Nikkei is at 10% low presently.  What are the statements for today from our heads?

Another point to observe is that one has to be brave in the catastrophe days and search for opportunities.  I feel that our markets will swing wildly to up side also (range may be 400 pts nifty) in this month but from where it swings is the greatest  discovery.  I fell nifty 3200 is a good support else 2900.  If the bounce is from 2900 it will be strong enough to make our investments i.e., calls  to multiply 5-10 times in 24/48 hours time period.  Let us wait whether we get this chance at Nifty 3200 or 2900. GOD HAS TO BLESS US.

no + ves?????

No analysis is required to our markets.  Just see the world through the window  and sell what ever is valuable.  Buying is only after nifty 2600 reaches. 

In F&O positions still shorts were added.  No reversals were seen.  Hence, the down trend may continue further.  No levels for down side.  When rain stops then come out. Thats all.  No signal to buy calls for short term trades.  One can do trade as per intra day trend.  

A SMALL CALCULATION:

3800-2600=1200/2=600.

3800-600=3200.

I expect one may get a chance of calls trade at Nifty 3200 level.  Hence try to buy nifty 3600 calls at 20-30  in future. OK ??? ?

TSUNAMI SELLING.......

Now the world is under severe pull back of money by FIIs.  It is the climax of the sub-prime crisis.  We can do just seeing than anything.  

Heavy F&O shorts buildup was continued further.  Dow in 4 digits.  Nikkei  also in 4 digits.  But our sensex will also be in 4 digits but a week time more???????.  Singapore nifty was traded at 3460-3500 yesterday/today.  Then what to do?  Our measures of RBI, SEBI may not help to stop tsunami.  Let us wait and watch for any buying of shares.  IN F & O if we hold puts OK.  Even in futures we can short today.  But check out on intra day basis.  If markets closes at Nifty 3400 or below ( 5 % or 10%) then we can try to buy 4800 below 20 for handsome gains.  ALL THE BEST. 

NEAR BOTTOM ???

Yesterday markets were lost heavily and closed nifty at 3818, sensex at 12526.  FII cash selling was -1662 cr, F&O index future shorts 8.8 lakhs, shorts were added in stocks future also. Over all nifty index future + 18.4 lakhs shorts were added. Global cues Dow lost 157 points and closed near bottom even after approval of bail out deal.

We are at new bottom after January 2008 bull market crash for the third time.  Heavy shorts in Reliance future also shows that markets may fall further this time. See the chart  and one can feel that the nifty may correct up to the level of 2600 and that to with in next march/April as the markets were sliding just within the major triangle.  If the markets crosses out and breaks the trend line upward we may think for cash stocks delivery.  Until then we have to wait for markets bottom out and consolidation.  

At present we may wait with our puts. One view is that as the Reliance and some other heavy stocks were sold for delivery with high volume, and this can not be repeated daily, today we may see a little bit recovery in the reliance stock along with market. But if markets break the lower level there is no support near the level.  One may understand that the markets earlier corrected and rose at this zone nifty 3600-2600 in one leg and so this time also markets may fall in one leg. Unless we see intra day bullishness one may wait in puts else if markets go up and trade weakly one may accumulate puts at 3700 level for further fall in shortest future.

No fire works from N-deal???

We are in fix between a little +ve from N-deal and very strong _ve global cues.  Fundamentals are weakening further.  Q 2 results will show this.  Credit crunch & PM statements that we were also to get effected from Global effects were all supporting the prediction of market fall further.  But as our markets are very strongly operated markets (controlled by some strong groups) we are unable to predict whether our markets will fall or take a rally to mesmerize all small investors for grabbing their money further.  

Hence, for today's trades whether to go by global cues and short or wait for a rise due to signing of n-deal on saturday between India & US one has to go by intra day charts.  We can not take risks with the reverse option buying as we are in first week of the month and premium are very high.  But remember that market will fall for this month below nifty 3700.

Rescue efforts

Yesterday, against to the expectations markets were not fallen to -5 or -10 % but the little fall was cleared because of the rescue efforts by statement of FM and SEBI, Fin Ministry statements.  Markets closed again in green nifty at 3921  (+71).  The heavy weights open interests in Futures was having bullish additions.  This will result to the Bullish nature to our markets at least one day or one and half day. Global cues are +ve.  At present, calls are good for intra day trades (Buy and sell 4300 calls on intra day basis) & check for crossing of nifty 4072-4150 levels.  Heavy 3700 put addition (11 lakhs), 4000 call addition (3.7 lakhs) shows that markets may take support at 3600 levels , resistance at 4150 levels.  Let us check for any reversal indications on intra day basis day after tomorrow. 

How many days are the strength of our FM, SEBI statements???.  LIBOR rate peak levels are effecting our companies foreign currency loan.  This will result in long term erosion of profits of our markets.  Fundamentally there is no chance of recovery.  It is sure of breaking of 3700 levels.  Only it is all for time bargaining?.   Let us accumulate 3900 puts at cheaper rates for next weeks trades. 

check for bounce - for a small long target.

Just check all markets.  No need for analysis. Only one look says all.  You cannot say with any words.  Globe is in red. Now, if you are in puts enjoy and just try to come out today.  But do not buy calls and wait for another opportunity.  Else, if markets come down -5% (nifty 3658) or -10% (nifty 3465) buy calls at 200 points above with a small forgettable money.

Our DIIs will come to rescue at some time but we cannot exactly predict.  We have to check on the spot on intra day basis. Investors who held stocks may wait for 2 years.  Traders have to trade for small ranges with strict stop loss. 

Some opportunities will come only in panic but but but the risk is 100%. Do not forget risk. 

UNCERTAINTY???

Previous day markets lost 125 points nifty and closed below 4000 i.e., at 3985 due to doubts about clearance of bailout package by US govt.  Shorts were buildup in nifty & stocks futures.  But a little bit + ve now is only clearance of bailout package in US & Indian Nuclear deal.  How far these will stop FII selling?.  What is the real impact in US markets?.  We have to wait and see the impacts.  

Presently markets may open in +ve as seen in Asian markets.  But one has to go by the intraday trends.  Else, wait and watch; and accumulate puts at higher levels.  For today and tomorrow calls at 4200 may give trading chance. Maximum time frame is only two days.  Monday US markets will be in +ve but on the next day?  ...

SOME USEFUL LINKS ON LEFT SIDE COLUMN

I have given some useful links on the left side column of this web page under titles bullish or bearish: NEWS - FINANCE - ECONOMICAL-STOCKS. These are some links to improve our education on stocks trading/ investment. Kindly go through them

New settlement - hurdles & horizonz

Oh !!! This settlement is over with lower closing from the previous settlement. But what about new settlement? Further weakening of economic strengths globally. US is in boiling pot. Free investment money for entire globe is collapsing. In Indian context, we have to go for general elections. Big money has to go out for this reason. Q2 may not be good and lead to further weakening of fundamentals.
But before that a little jump in the markets expected because of high premium in October nifty future. US bail-out package has to work and show some results in US markets. US general elections also play a role in the international economic/stock market trends. No doubt that we are in a bear phase, but if we go short blindly markets will go up and give us sleepless nights. Hence let us wait and watch for the developments nationally/globally and take a decision to short the markets.
Some circles are saying that the bear phase/signal for bull phase will generally be around three years as per 2000-2003 history.

At present the Open Interest developments yesterday can not be read deeply because of the settlement day. Let us just view the high premium in October nifty future & for a development in US bail-out package that our markets may go up. Targets nifty 4220-4300-4550-4650 and ?!?!?!?! That much may not be necessary. Let us view up to 4300-4500 ( two hundred points for trades OK) BUT ALWAYS PLAY WITH A STRICT STOP LOSS. WE HAVE TO BUILD UP PUT OPTIONS. I HAVE TO ADD -- US Dow future is at --150 & our nuclear deal signing was postponed. Shall we get a chance to short? Forget long and trying to go short may be a good idea.

Settlement pressures...

Settlement pressures may continue further and markets may close in +ve. For next settlement there is a hope of bail out fund of US, may boost sentment.

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES???

Yesterday's trading shows the settlement pressures and weak global cues.  FII data shows more shorts build up and more selling in cash market.  Global cues are also - ve. Not very much specific observations in option writings. But will the support for nifty said yesterday ie., 4080 holds good and markets take a bounce for the sake of settlement. Let us wait and see.  Not to buy aggressive calls and just take an opportunity to buy 4200 calls for this month (may be at single digit price for a target of 20 max) as a trade with small money.  

For detailed options open interest analysis please go through the link given on lift side top i.e., vangara_kris view on open interest changes.

nearing settlement...

As expected markets lost its steam and cooled/swallowed premiums of puts/calls options. Nifty closed at 4223 (-22) sensex at 13995 (-47). FII data + 138 cr in cash, long in index futures 12.5 lakh shares, long in stock futures 17504 contracts. Bullish for the past three days. This may reflect in strong recovery in the next month I week or for this month settlement. Nifty future open interest net addition to the extent of 7.57 lakhs. More writings were seen in September put options at nifty 4200 and below levels than call options. In most of the stock futures addition in shorts for this month and for the next month also were observed. (A contradictory position when compared with FII position buildup ) Dow is now trading at -200 points which may turn -ve Asian markets for the next day.

When we observe the points FII build up + ve on one side (one point here is our PM will be in US for some period for signing the 123 agreement which may be a cue for bullish tradings for some days) and F&O settlement along with -ve global cues on the other side, it may be good enough for trading as buying puts for tomorrow up to closing and go for call options. A bounce may be expected for settlement closing and this may lead to short term rally for the next month first week.
Lower levels for nifty 4170-4080 only. GO LONG at nifty 4080 may be buy calls 4200 below Rs20/-

Now eyes on settlement???

Last two days trading was resulted by major decisions taken by international central banks for coping with the financial tsunami surrounding the world. Ban on short sale in US & timely statement by our FM regarding stability of our banking system triggered short covering even in India. With this double bottom was also formed in the daily charts. OK. Now, the major short covering was over even in international markets??? US govt passed resolution for $800 billion fund for purchase of bad instruments. Over. Then what happens for the further money credit in the international markets. Now that funds are flowing into US. When will it comes to India? May not be at immediate present. In this month FII s were selling in cash markets and investing them debt instruments. We may read it that the FIIs were not repatriating the money now it self because 1. they may expect rupee may appreciate in the immediate future or 2. they may wait for the Indian markets to fall further so as to enter the mid cap at further lower levels. We may read that the investments for debt instruments may not be for short term may be around one year. Hence, we may anticipate a further fall of our markets along with the international markets in the near future.

I feel one may go for exit stocks even at these levels and go for fixed deposits for one year range as being done by some FIIs.

This week our markets may move for settlement. The calls bought by persons like me on Friday should give losses as usual. Panic short covering might also be over. Hence, under any circumstances markets will try for consolidation around these levels and markets may converge in the range NIFTY 4300-4200. +/- 50 points. One may take reverse positions according to market movements. i.e., either put/call which will be cheaper first at 4200/4300 levels. This may be the game for this week. For the next month series one has to wait for this week end trades.

recovery to continue..

Yesterday trades shows that markets opened at lowest level and recovered from there without looking back.  After our FM's statement markets closed in positive territory.  Global cues are + ve. FII data is also + ve in F&O but huge selling in cash.  Presently we may expect the markets will go up to the retracement level 4300 nifty.  we have to wait and see what happens in the US markets. One can stay in longs for some time. International gold trades shows the severe panic in the stock markets. 

Unexpected...

Today markets opened flat and swallowed the option traders and finally settled in deep red. Previous day open interest data was useless and took dramatically to downward. Then what is the use of today's data? shorts were build up in nifty next month 9 lacks & for this month 3 lacks , calls were written more at 4100 level. As the Dow is trading -300 points, tomorrow our markets will have to fall further. Down levels can not be predicted at present. One may take in the money puts or short futures. After all it is financial tsunami covering the entire world. What happens to India's economy can not be predicted. See the seriousness in Gold trades. That is 837 dollars +60 dollars at present. ABRAKA DABRA TOMORROW

A good continuation of support.

Today's trades shows that short covering of index and stock futures continued well. Previous low was just broken and raised to close at 4075. FII data shows that shorts in index future, long in stocks futures and more selling in cash. Nifty Open interest was down by 11 lacks, a good sign of recovery. Global cues are further deteriorated. Dow is just waiting for fed move. As rumors spread the fed may reduce interest rate up to 0.25%. This may lead a little bit boost to the markets. However, -ve factors cannot be wiped out at once. Our F & O option writings shows that more call writing than put. Call writing at nifty 4100 at 8.9 lacks may give us a hint that our markets may not go beyond 4200. If we feel that steam in the markets are over at nifty 4200 one may accumulate shorts/ buy puts may be at the levels 3900-3800 for a remarkable profits.

well supported?

Today' s markets were opened in line with expectation -4% to -6% and closed with a remarkable recovery from the lower levels.  The unexpected support extended by Doemstic institutional investers at lower levels alongwith very strong coverup of shorts in index, stock futures by FII clearly shows that for a short term our markets may bounce upward.  At present US markets were in deep red. This will result the very deep red in global markets for the next day.  But, tomorrow our indian markets,  if opens in red, will bounce further.  This may be certain.  One has to exit puts and  buy calls of 4200, 4300 only.  Nifty upper resistances may be 4150-4250. ( A very small range? This may be studied as per next day's open interest data and fed decision).  As the international economy is at the worst phase/stage, the hanging axe may fall on our markets at any time.  Don't forget to take shorts around nifty 4250 with a target 3800-3600-etc downside in this settlement or in the next settlement.  

GET READY FOR SENSEX 12500 BREAK DOWN ???

Yesterday, as expected sensex & Nifty reached lower levels and closed with more weakness. The IIP numbers released at 12 .00 noon could not induct steam into the markets. FII data, Open Interest data, Option writing data were all shows the possibility of further fall immediately. Crude rates, commodities, metal prices were falling. Dow, global markets shows that further money infusion into the markets could not be possible at present. Hence, the market fall may continue further. The bear phase is taking speed now. The immediate target for Sensex 12500 and Nifty 3800. As we are at sensex 14000, a psychological level there is just a little bit chance the market may take a pause and go 300 points but the speed of fall cannot be ruled out. We can trade stay long in puts and we may add some more at a small rally on monday. Enter and enjoy market fall with put option.
ONE MAY ACCUMULATE PUTS FOR THE OCTOBER MONTH NOW

weakness further? ! ?

Yesterday markets traded downward and closed nifty at 4291. Means the markets came out of trading zone and took downward direction. FII data, nifty open interest, and many heavy weights were all - ve. Commodities and Crude prices were down. But the factors Dow and Asian markets were +ve at present.  Except this, every thing is - ve.  Hence, though our markets open +ve now, there is a chance that Markets may come down even in the next week.  One may hold puts or enter them once again at higher levels. Bulls zone is nifty 4400 and above. Note: US markets +vity can not be sustained though  DOW closes above 12000.

Nifty at the end of the triangle= +/- 300 points

Yesterday markets traded down word and closed at Nifty 4400 ie., exactly at the end point of  the triangle.  FII data, Nifty O I, option writing, Asian markets were all - ve. Dow was just +ve.  The heavy buildup in nifty oi and fii short position in index futures shows that the swing of Nifty from this point towards downside only.  4300 put options will fetch us more profits. If due to any reason markets crosses 4400 up side then go for buying calls 4600. (May not be necessary)

conflicting view

Yesterday markets opened -ve and after half an hour trade markets took support and gone up. But the closing was in red Nifty 4469. -13 pts.( not at all a good ). Global markets shows that all +ves were exhausted?.  FII data is not so directional. Markets are bullish only after nifty crosses 4520 and 4650.  As the markets faces strong resistance at these levels go short by buying 4300 puts. Stop loss nifty 4550. SGX nifty trading at -45 pts Chart shows that market is in range bound and converges at nifty 4400.

Trend to continue...

Bulls dominated the market in a big way with the clearance of the NSG deal for India and markets were closed at Nifty 4482. (But the last one hour trading is a little bit worrying).  FII data is +ve. Option writing shows that markets may take support (puts 4400 9.2 lacks, 4500 6.4 lacks & calls 4600 7.3 lacks, 4700 2.9 lacks ).  Nifty  September future open interest increase is just 29500. This point along with the Reliance stock position shows doubt about the run up of markets. Otherwise Nifty may touch 4915 after crossing 4650. One may exit longs at 4600-4650 and enter latter which may give huge profits as our targets for nifty is up to 4915.  

NEGATIVE NEWS ? ! ?

Negative  news in US markets which may turn - ve to the world economy. 

1. Global equities falling through support :

2. Why commodities may be nearing a turning point

3. Silver state bank postmortum :

4. Fannie, Freddie blind to the bubble :

NSG CLEARS INDIA...

Now NSG clearance for India is a positive sign in the India's history and it boosts the sentiments in the Indian stock market for a short term view. Except this, every parameter of technical analysis is negative. Hence, we have to wait and take a call option on Monday. We may expect a flat/- ve opening of market. But, this long journey may lead nifty up to 4650 this time. But the over all bear market can not be left out of our view. I feel that the point here is not any thing than the operator's action to off load the mid cap/ small cap stocks to the small investors at high levels. The operator knows that the future is very weak for the world economy fundamentally, irreparable. Our nation has to go for general elections, for this big political money has to go out of market. Target for 4600 calls that may give profit up to three times!!!

volatility for option writing ?

As we observe the trading pattern in the new settlement, probably the option writing has not been completed. Build up is still going on. All the Technical Analysts have been forced to project nifty levels to huge long as well as huge bottom. What happens at the end of the month? Where is the way for f & o traders? Today, taking cue from global markets, our markets have fallen to Nifty 4447. Then, we can read that resistance 4520 was strong. Now, sgx nifty was traded low at 4380. Dow below -200, entire global cues in red. FII data fully -ve. One clue is over that we may trade up to 4380, but below that? No indication of puts open interest decrease. If tomorrow, there is any reduction in put open interest that may be an indication for further fall of markets. If not, we have to wait for bull's steam exhaust. May be in the next week.

Hold put options with a stop loss nifty 4400 in the gap down opening for tomorrow.
One cue for bulls is clearance of nuclear deal. Let us wait and see. Until markets comes below nifty4200 sensex 14000 bulls may dominate once again.

BULLS TO CONTINUE

What a speed in rising the markets!!! This shows that nifty to touch and try to cross 4650 but as the - ve news is being developed ie., weak global markets and probable failure of nuclear deal which ultimately lead to national mid term poll may lead the market at gap down. Huge buying in cash by FII a +ve point but long in index futures vs short in stock futures will lead a big fall in the near term. No alternative than to trade with strict stop loss.

BEARS WAIT AND WATCH

Yesterday's trading shows a strong recovery that may prevail for one or two days bullish. Nifty 4349, sensex 14499. Nifty September future -2.5 lack. fii data -ve in futures (stocks & index) and in cash stocks. Nifty put writing 4200 +2.4 lacks 4300 + 5.8 lacks & calls 4300 +5.2 lacks 4400 +5.5 lacks 4500 +2.5 lacks 4600 & 4700 +1.1 lacks. Nifty support 4200 resistance 4380-4450-4520-4650. money flow index may turn bullish, macd to +ve. Bears may wait and watch. Exit puts nifty above 4390 and enter calls 4500. Put open interest still not reduced. At the first instance of the major reduction in puts Open interest one may buy nifty puts 4300. Markets may come at least upto 4200 in this month if 4500 resistance is stronger.

Not so bullish?

Markets on previous day opened +ve as predicted and closed nifty at 4360. FII data -ve in cash stocks, -ve in stocks futures, +ve in index futures. Dow -, Nikkei -, Crude may rise today. As per option writing 4300puts +14 lacks 4200 +7 lacks calls 4300 +4.6, 4400 calls +3.1 lacks 4500 calls +4.7 lacks. Nifty may not go up beyond 4430- 4480 as Global cues develop -ve. One may wait and watch for small reduction in put open interest and buy them at the first sign of the steam in bullls is over. If markets breaks 4330-4300 buy nifty put 4200 immediately and enjoy the fall upto nifty3800.

Today's view.

Yesterday being the settlement day in F & O markets drifted down and closed lower at 4214.  Support levels were not yet broken.  Nifty 4200-4150.  As the global cues are + ve today nifty may go up at least for the first half of the day. One can go long safely only after nifty closes above 4330.

WEALTH BUILDER 1001

Hello

This is my first post in this blog.  I welcome you all for viewing my opinion on the Indian stock market, particularly in index nifty.