Nifty is still in dilemma

As per today's trading these points are derived.

• Nifty falls below 1032 ema line.
• Nifty future open interest added to some extent. 
• FII data bought more in cash, bought in index futures and sold in stocks futures (2 nd day). Means indecisiveness to the short term trend. But weekly candle is drifting down in red (danger).
• Previous high of nifty 5400 not crossed. 
• Option writing 5000 puts added but 5400 calls sheds (READ WITH ADDITION OF INDEX FUTURE LONGS BY FIIs)  means some unexpected bounce is expected in the next week or on Friday. 
• As per weekly chart markets have to fall hugely with in 2 or 3 weeks. But before that a false breakout up side is expected. Range is 5180-5360-5400-5430. A fall below 5200-5180 is more dangerous and may bring down the nifty to 4700 zone so fast. (But a little bit confusion with the FII longs in index futures)

A CAUTIOUS DOWN SIDE VIEW IS REQUIRED.  

Nifty view for November settlement.

• Option writing range 5000-5400.
• Support 4700 resistance 5400.
• Support on long term charts 5200 (a fall below will lead to major fall 4700 and even to lower levels with in months).
• If nifty crosses 5400 then index may rise up to 5750-6100 (but for few months).

For tomorrow: If nifty crosses 5360 for weekly close then bullish else the minor fall comes first.

Settlement level for nifty October 2011

Nifty while rising from 4730 zone by making double bottom reached to 5140 and loosing it steam. Nifty future open interest came down. FII data bought in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures. But the bullishness is intact. Nifty option writings shows that 5200-5400 is target levels for October or November first week. Support at the most will be at 4800 but not confident the market drifts to that level. Bullish above 4980. This settlement may be from 5170 to ( My expectation)

Nifty for August settlement.

Nifty on the first day of settlement traded range bound and closed a little bit negative.

• Nifty future open interest added 6+ lakh.
• FII data sold in cash, sold in index future and bought in stock futures.
• Option range is from Nifty 5400 to 5700.
• Now the nifty is at lower range of bollinger band and higher range is at 5716. Means, if nifty crosses 5563 ie., 20 ema line then the target will be 5700.
• Upper resistance line will be at 5650-5670.
• As the latest weekly candle is in red and engulfing the previous candle, the lower range is to be completed first. 
• Support zone for nifty is 5410-5400, 5280, 5177.

For the swing reversal from bottom to top, wait and watch to buy nifty 5600 calls at Rs.30/- to sell at higher end of bollinger band.

Today's Nifty chart:

for small remembrance:  

Go Long at / above 5450. Keep Stoploss at 5444.55. Target 1 is 5629.54.
Go Long at / above 5518.62. Keep Stoploss at 5444.55. Target 2 is 5747.04.
Go Long at / above 5605.57. Keep Stoploss at 5518.62. Target 3 is 5896.03.
Wave 1      5450 - 5629.54
Wave 2      5629.54 - 5518.62
Wave 3      5518.62 - 5747.04
Wave 4      5747.04 - 5605.57
Wave 5      5605.57 - 5896.03

Nifty is facing resistance at 5940 and retraces back. The support levels are 5711-5680-5650-5500. Nifty is moving in a converging triangle and the converging point is 5680.

Nifty for settlement week: As per FII data and Nifty future data markets are expected to rise further in the coming week also.  Expected settlement for March may be 5600 to 5750. If nifty moves up in first two days the settlement may be at 5600-5630 else if nifty consolidates at 5580-5650 then the settlement may be above 5700.

Nifty for 24-3-2011 trading: Nifty started to rise. FII data bullish, but more shorts in stocks futures?. As per options writings the rise may be up to 5700 in this settlement.  But the confirmation is from tomorrows trading with more buying in stocks futures by FIIs.

     If there is no follow up buying in stocks futures by FIIs tomorrow we may see correction up to Friday forenoon and followed by big rise in the next week. April trading is with in the range of nifty 5400-5800.

Nifty levels : 5620-5311-5820

medium term nifty levels 5300-5600-5900.

Nifty for 16-3-2011: Before reaching nifty 5660 market fall initiated, means the earlier level of 5600 itself may the end of short term rise.  If nifty crosses 5450-5470 then only markets will be long else if markets are in red tomorrow then the fall will be agrevated below 5400 once again.  FII bought in cash, sold in F&O index and stocks futures. Markets will fall further but it is a matter of time may be in 1 or 2 days.

Nifty for 15-3-2011: Nifty crossed 5510 and closed at 5531.

FII bought in cash bought in index futures and sold in stocks futures, means markets will fall in future from these levels though they rise for 2 days.

Nifty future open interest  -3.5 lakhs not fully bullish.
Nifty 5550-5660 levels are strong resistance zone.
Tomorrow triggers GST bill in Parliament. Thursday triggers RBI credit policy review.

Markets may rise up to 5630 only? Two days long side trading.  Delevery buying is only after nifty crossing 5630 but if comes down breaks 5400 low and final way to 5100.

FOR 14-3-2010: Nifty is in down trend. For trading go long nifty future above 5510 or short below 5410. FII data is sold in cash, sold in F&O. The event inflation data on Monday and the effect of Japan Earth quake are the forces for the day. Later we can under stand the direction of the market.

Bullish-bearish barrier

For 11-03-2011 trading: 

• As per Sensex levels markets will be bearish below 18300 and bullish only after crossing 18645. For both the directions stoploss will be the level it self.
• FII data bearish in cash and F&O. Nifty future added 5 lakhs means bearish.

Tomorrow the IIP data and next day the inflation figures are the violent market movers and after these jerks the market will go down finally. Our trial is to buy puts at cheaper rates in the jerks. stop loss for shorts is nifty 5610.

Nifty analysis

Nifty future levels 5460-5550-5600-5660-5720-5750. (Most possibly 5660 only).

• FII bought in cash, Balanced in F&O.
• Nifty future added 9 lakhs at higher level (5550). Theses are shorts if nifty future falls below 5517 tomorrow. 
• May be for two days markets may be range bound. As far as macd day chart is concerned minimum three days of +ve momentum to market is expected.
• What happens to nifty at 5660? At present downside is only up to 5460. Final journey to market is 5100.

Budget impact

Indian market is expected a final positive closing for the budget day closing. Though the negative points are in the economic system the markets will have to rise from these levels at least for one/two months. Hope the downward swing on the budget day may be taken as a chance for a buying in stocks. The FII data is bullish in F&O but selling in cash that may get reversed soon.

Nifty after a bounce from 5180 pauses the rise at 5480-5481. Now for tomorrow if nifty crosses 5530 then the rise will continue for the next week also and the settlement may closes positive month on month. If nifty breaks down 5440 then the fall may continue and first retest the recent bottom. As far as news is concerned there is no major negatives for markets.

Nifty future may take support at 5140 and the rise may be up to 5380. But the reversal has not yet confirmed. Be cautious in longs with a stop loss 80 points below where you take position.

Nifty is trying to break 200 day line now but 5550 will be a strong support.  Next target will be 350 points up side before further fall?.  The final 5th wave downwards will start. Final target may be 5350 in February 2nd week.

Nifty is trying to break 200 day line now but 5550 will be a strong support.  Next target will be 350 points up side before further fall?.  The final 5th wave downwards will start. Final target may be 5350 in February 2nd week. 

Nifty bounced up from the days low 5711 to 5863. It shows that nifty took support at 5700 zone. FII data is long in stocks futures and short in index futures.  Nifty future should cross 5960 then only confident of run up. Otherwise, simply nifty may be at 5600 at 200 day sma/ ema lines. Even 5550 is to be seen.

Nifty is falling now.  The supports are 6080-5960 and if falls the target will be 5725 to touch or break further.

Nifty swings for January 2011

Nifty is expected to swing between 6300-6000-5900.
No major buildup of open interest till now. So if first nifty comes down the build up makes the market to new highs. Else short at 6250-6300 zone for 250 to 300 points profits.
Tata motors 1300-1200 but 1350 will be a danger zone.
Tata steel 700-640 but possibility to go up to 740.

Day trend  is bullish at least for three to 4 days but the nifty future support is 6080. So let us expect nifty future to move between 6080-6280 for this week. If nifty future breaks 6080 target 6000-5980.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2011.

I WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR WITH ALL ROUND DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESS.