28-5-2009 trading shows that over all bullishness prevailed further. Settlement is over. Nifty closed at 4337 +67 points. Today we may expect another positive weekly closing. Hence, one more positive weekly closing is expected for the coming week also. Means markets may test the previous highs of nifty 4500 once again in the coming week and we may expect a considerable correction in the second week of June.

One worrying factor is flat premium in June nifty future. Nifty range is 4200-4500.

Over all view: Buy any thing targeting the resistance of 4500.
s2 =4215 s1=4276 pivot = 4315 r1= 4376 r2= 4415

27-5-2009 trading shows that against to the FII trading the markets reversed and rise heavily to close nifty at 4276 +159 points. (short covering). FII data is showing more buying than selling for the day. F & O data a little bit positive. Option writing shows that more calls were unwinding. Global cues are - ve now.

Today's view: Though markets rise very high yesterday today' s closing may be at nifty 4200 - 4300. Intra day trading is to be observed.
Nifty levels for the day :
s2=4055 s1= 4165 p= 4226 r1= 4336 r2=4397

But, as the news of filing of bankruptcy by GM in US is imminent the Dow may come down in the coming week. Means, global cues for the next week will be weak????

settlement pressurres? Else...

26-5-2007 trading shows that markets as expected broken the support levels and drifted down further. Nifty closed at 4117 -121 points. FII data shows that more shorts were added, means further fall. F & O figures - nifty futures 17 lakhs added - ve. Option writing - more calls were written means markets will fall further. Global cues are + ve now and SGX nifty is +50. Indicators are turned down now.

Over all view: Though SGX nifty is positive now, by seeing the FII shorts accumulations and option writing it is expected markets may fall further and nifty may close for this settlement around 4050 zone. Then more - ves may come for the next weeks. Will nifty take support at 4050-3850.
For today wait and trade down side only.
s2 = 3991 s1=4054 p= 4155 r1 =4219 r2= 4319

settlement pressures.

25-5-2009 trading shows that markets traded range bound and closed flat. FII data - ve (added more shorts), F & O data range bound, Option writing in 4300 calls and 4200 puts. Global cues are - ve.
Though markets showed some positive signals yesterday evening but the closing and FII data indicates negativeness and markets may correct up to 10 day ema line @ nifty 4060. Hence, one can expect markets even in this settlement up to 4040. One can wait till this level for taking longs in the next month.
Over all view: O I data is - ve. 3o minute candle line is + ve. Upper parallel line in the above daily chart also gave support in the last two day s of trading. Nifty levels are 4186 -4212 supports if broken my theory of correction up to 4040 holds good.

shifting correction

22-5-2009 trading shows that the nifty 4167 lower level support was tested and bounced up to close in positive at 4239 +28.  FII data is negative. F & O data is a little bit positive ( may not be further fall). Global cues are dull. Calls were more written than Puts. Though the under current  in the market is bullish the rise at present is linked to the F & O settlement. Monday's trading is important for immediate rise in the market for the week.
As we have 11 weeks positive closings, as per fibonacci numbers we may have another two positive weekly closings. Means markets may correct in a big way (beyond 10 day ema line) in the next month ie., in the 2nd week of June. Some what this view is justified as there is no major correction since nifty 2530 for the entire 2000 points journey.  

Over all view: Wait for half a day trade on Monday then think for 4300 call buying if previous day's lows were not broken. If 4250 was not crossed then buy put 4200.

Nifty levels:    s2 =4120    s1=4180    p=4215    r1=4273    r2=4308  

21-5-2009 trading shows that markets faced profit booking by FIIs. Nifty closed at 4211 - 59 points. FII data, F & O data, Global cues are - ve. As expected option premiums were further reduced. Under current of the market is bullish. A little bit fall may be for today. Next week may be bullish.

Nifty levels: 4167-4110 down side.
Pivot : s1= 4123 s2= 4167 p= 4243 r1= 4287 r2=4363

We may get a chance for buying calls at lower levels in the evening having bullish view for the next week.

roll over begins...

20-5-2009 trading shows that as expected profits were booked and premiums in options were come down in puts and calls. In side candle was formed. FII were on short side now. FII data – ve. Cash – ve. F & O data nifty future -11 lakhs . + 5 lakhs. Not + ve . option writing balanced. Global cues are - ve. Over all view is that markets will corrects further in the two days. Later we may see upward swing.

One can buy put for today.

Nifty range for today 4167-4506. 10 day ema =3922.

s1= 4174 s2 = 4222 p= 4292 r1=4340 r2= 4410

Normalcy restored

Normalcy restored. Nifty after hitting the top 4500 closed at 4318. A big rise and a big correction. Huge writing at 4000-4100 puts and 4200-higher calls. Range will be around 4200. But market may test 4050 also. Whether it is in this settlement or in the next settlement?.
Fresh shorts were added at the higher levels. Premium are very high. It may take one - two days to come down to normal rates. Then we can have a good trading opportunity.

Aim is let the market come down to 4100 then buy calls 4400.

Nifty levels for the day:
s1 =3990 s2 = 4154 pivot = 4332 r1 =4495 r2 = 4673.

top ups....

Yes. It is just top up. 17% rise in indexes. Wait and see for the next move.

I have an opinion that ours are not stock markets. The big boss (operator) is the real one. He is just playing on his wishes every day. He controls the markets with the help of computers, huge money, huge stock build ups. His wishes are the chart for the day/ swings. We are just playing a video game. If every investor sells nothing will fall or buys nothing will rise. Himalayas won't move. Like wise markets. Fortunately for the same video type charts buying / selling of shares are going on and we are able to get/give delivery of shares. How markets are able to close to some magic figures with a pin point accuracy. Else, Where from comes the pressure of circuit breaks. Understand no individual/big investor not even submitted his order for the day with in the half minute. Then how the rise was happened.

Best way to defend this type of great gamblers is just wait for bottom out of the markets in bear markets and invest for a time period of 5 years. Exit when highest euphoria prevails in bull markets. Then only one cannot struck in the clutches of great gamblers.

Else learn technical analysis and chart reading and go by charts with a decisive opinion on exit.

View: Nothing until the clearance of the euphoria in the stock markets. But wait to short the markets.

UPA wins....

Next day the trading in the stock marets will just be every ones guss. A big rise.  One can buy any thing and the rise may be for three -  four days. Later we may see a profit booking situation.

Over all view: We first expected a long bear market rally up to the submission of full budget that may be in the month of July 2009. But if any weak govt comes the corrections will be stronger. But as the strong govt is being established at the center the corrections may be smaller with a bullish view up to July or 16000 sensex. 

climax

14-5-2009 trading shows that we are in the part of climax. Markets opened gap down and traded in the gap to close at nifty 3593 -42 points.
FII data is negative, F & O data nifty futures added 3.8 lakhs - not sufficient for picking a direction. Global cues may not required for one week of trading. We are different for one week.

Nifty is just on the 10 day ema line. As expected markets are weakening further. Expected mandate is fractured. Hence, we should definitely see weakness for the next 2-3 trading sessions. Put- Call writings are suggesting that markets may go down up to 3250 level ie., 50 day ema line. If markets take support at 3250 levels then we see 4000 again immediately.

Conclusion: one can have a put or to play downside at first instance and latter in the second half of next week one can go for calls/ long at nifty 3250 levels.

pivot for today: s2- 3504; s1-3549; p=3586; r1-3630; r2-3667.

what - what???

13-5-2009 trading shows that market is just confusing the common trader/investor. Very wild swing. When we expected that the markets are to cross the resistance then finally with in no time markets collapsed and closed -46 points nifty at 3635.

Futures oi -19 lakhs means longs covered and heavy put writing at 3700-3600 and considerable call writing at 3700.(contradictory directions)

FII data is mixed. More selling in index futures but buying in cash market.
Global cues are - ve.

We can reach one conclusion if markets breaks nifty 3618-3585 before any rise, then RSI indicates continuous down trend from nifty 3720 first attempt and leads to break 3540 further fall to 3280. Else if nifty crosses 3720 then 3800-3940.

Today I learned about pivot cross overs and market trend. Based on this crossing one can expect a considerable swing 20-40 points.

Pivot for 14-5-2009 : s1 3552 s2 3593 p 3651 r1 3693 r2 3751

Another point is opening range break out. If range of first 30-45 minutes is broken in any direction then the swing will be a good range in that direction.

For a big rally?

12-5-2009 trading shows that markets took support at 10 day ema line and bounced well. Nifty closed at 3681 +127 points. It was happening from the 2530 nifty onwards. Means, if nifty breaks this support line markets will correct heavily.

FII, F&O, Global cues all are positive and nifty is heading for 3880 level that to in this week it self. Go long in intra day corrections.

11-5-2009 data : Markets were fallen and closed on the 10 day ema line at 3554. F&O data 3600 calls and 3500 puts were written. FII data a little bit short but not strong shorts. Nifty future a small addition means no major negatives. Global cues weak. RSI and Stochastic are showing reversals from over bought zone means this fall may continue.
Bolinger band down level 3250 = 50 day ema line.
Parabolic sar reversal only after 3475 breakout. If Nifty breaks 10 day ma line 3555, nifty falls further. As per one support line market may take support at 3460 and go up.

Conclusion: Though there is no major build up for shorts, that may happen even today. If nifty breaks 3450 then we may see nifty up to 3250-3280. If nifty takes support at 3450 then we may see new highs immediately.

check for swing reversal.. to down side

Previous day trading shows that markets are facing strong resistance at nifty 3720 level. Two times markets took correction about 100 points at this level. FII data, F & O writings shows that steam at this level is over. As we are nearing the election D day, may be operators are ready to en cash profits.  Global cues are positive now. But Indian cues may not be that much stronger for the next week.

But tomorrow we may see positive opening and a good chance for buying puts at lower rates. If Monday is positive Tuesday may not be. Even if markets crosses 3720 the range may be another 5% from there.  So anticipate fall either from 3720 or 3880 levels.

Target trade:  Buy puts 3400, 3500 on Monday evening or Tuesday morning for handsome gains to the end of the week.

Nearing a major fall???

RSI and price divergence in the daily charts shows that markets will fall drastically, may be up to 3150-3050 nifty range in near future. But, exact point of time can not be calculated now. We have to go by price movements at the higher levels. If price breaks 10 day ma line (now at nifty 3555-3546) and closes go for big shorts for the above said targets. We may expect this fall with in one month. Now the markets faced major resistance at nifty 3720 level. There are hurdles at 3800-3880. So, from there or at 4000 zone markets have to start falling for a major range of 20 % and above. Be alert for en cashing this fall.

7-5-2009 trading shows that markets are rising but nearing the strong resistance levels. FII data (no direction yet), F & O writings (a small reversal in nifty futures open interest), global cues (stress test results are out but no + ves) are slowly fading out the positive points. We are nearing for election climax.

Nifty closed at 3684 +59 points up. Some scripts are ready to fall ( may they require one more day). If nifty 3520 broken we may see further correction. Lowest point may be 3150 zone. Any shorts are below 3520 and stop loss will be same. Wait for one more day for reversal confirmation.

Nifty levels 3720-3780-3800.

6-5-2009 trading shows the continuation of weakness in RSI daily charts. Nifty faced resistance at 3715 and falls one hundred points, finally closed at 3625 (-37). FII data, F & O data, Global cues are all positive as of now.

As we see continuation of weakness in RSI and divergence in hourly charts there is further chance of fall. But to convert this fall as major fall some indications as per option writings will be required. This may happen with in two days???. Till then trade for small swings only.

Nifty levels: 3520-3720. Go long above 3660 and short below 3660 stop loss for both will be 3660.
Markets may go up further, may be to the level of 3880 before a major fall that to 3520-3350 only. (In the 3 rd week)

a pause...

5-5-09 trading shows a pause after a huge jump in the market. Every one could not digest the big rise. Now, as per FII data, F & O data, Global cues the market may be range bound for one day with a small negative bias ( but no clear signals for huge fall as of now except weakening of RSI on daily chart).

Nifty levels: 3520-3720.

అబ్బ, అబ్బా, అబ్బబ్బో...

ఈ రోజు మార్కెట్టు చాల బాగుగ పెరిగింది. నిఫ్టీ 3650 వద్ద + 180 గ వుంది. ఎప్పుడు ఇంక ఏమి చేసేది. ఇంక కాలు కొనవచ్చు. నిఫ్టీ 3880 వరకు పెరగవచ్చు. మా ఈ తెలుగు వ్యాసమునకు స్వాగతము.

up up up and above...

Now that the new settlement started with a big bang. Nifty closed at 3650 + 180 points. FII data, F & O writings, Global cues all are positive and may be like this for one to two days. Levels may be 3880.. and markets may retrace 5 % from there.

Presently go long......