30-3-2009 trading shows that the markets corrected coolly to 4% fall nifty 2978 -131 points. Dow followed the same. FII data and F & O data shows melting of bulls build up in the open interest. Bulls gone out but no very strong build up by bears. Will it take 1 - 2 days or this is just a correction before further run up?. Our expected levels are holds good for our decision. Nifty, if bounces from 2880-2830 zone and crosses 2900 then expect run up else if nifty breaks 2800-2770 zone markets will corrects very deep.

Let us observe the trend as per F & O writings in a day or two.

27-3-2009: As per today’s trades the markets shows violent up moves than to down sides. That means to provoke all bakaras to go long very quickly? Nifty closed at 3109 +26 points. FII and F & O data is positive.

Dow is weak but don’t know whether it leads to further fall or not. After a rise of more than 20 % rise in Dow it requires considerable correction?

Before that steam in our markets should come down. It may take one to two days. May be the resistance is 3240-3300. 50, 20 day ema lines are aligning for the time being before a major fall and this may take time up to 3 – 4 weeks. Till then the markets are range bound at the lines it self.

Expected Nifty levels for April month 2800-3300. Sensex range is 9000-10500.

As all the technical indicators are in over bought zone one has to trade first to down side and later to up side. If nifty faces resistance at 3240/3300 and reverses then

Target trades: Buy nifty puts 2900 for nifty target of 2800 for this month.

If we get this target early another change of buying calls for this month.

Buy Nifty calls 3200 for nifty target 3300 if nifty takes support at 3050 and goes up.

For a more conservative trade: If nifty falls into the parallel channel drawn on the chart by breaking 3050 then the lower level is 2850 may be the target.

A good turn

26-3-2009 trading shows that the march series expired with a very huge rise and a 550 points in nifty from the month's bottom. Bear trap and bulls enjoyed very well. FII buying support is very strong. F & O build up is also positive. Very huge writing of 3000 puts 17.5 lacks in April series. Global cues are also positive for some time from now.

Finally to feel that we are in strong bear rally (violent) and the time for the general elections is the period. Later, this may weed out. US is in the primary wave B and that is to retrace up to 50% of primary wave A. Half an hour time period chart of nifty from January 2008 to till now is in wide downward parallel channel and now the nifty breaks out up ward from this channel yesterday. The width of this channel is nifty 1850 points. Hence, we may expect a rise of 1800 points nifty in the mean time as bear phase rally? Time period may be up to July/ October.

Plan for this is to role over a nifty future with stop loss 100 points down taking the stochastic help for entering the longs once again up to the rise of nifty 1800 points.

Present levels for nifty 3180-3240 as Fibonacci retracement level 150, 161 %

strong FII buying!!!!

25-3-2009 trading shows no signs of slowdown even for the settlement time. Very strong build up in F & O positions. Markets are in bull phase. Stochastic and RSI are also on the raise but not to show weakness.

One has to plan only for long side trading for the coming month may be up to completion of elections.

Trade expectation: Buy nifty future and buy put.

SETTLEMENT PRESSURES???

24-3-2009 trading shows that markets after heavy raise in previous days' trade, faced resistance at 3020 zone with more shorts and closed at 2939 -7. If it is true nifty won't cross this level before settlement and corrects back up to 2830 and may close at 2900 range.

RSI and Stochastic are at over bought zone which shows markets may corrects now. FII data is highly positive shows that markets may raise in April also. Very huge rise in nifty future open interest shows very heavy role over to April series also a bullish sign.

Trade expectation: First markets will correct for settlement hence and SGX nifty is in positive. If markets open in positive short at over bought zone and markets have to correct up to 2830.

bullish for some time.

23-3-2009 trading shows that markets raised very well and surpassed all the resistances. Very huge buildup in F & O section. No to any bear view for some time. Probable we see some correction that to small range in the last two days of the week. Now the trading view is buy some stocks for trading purpose. This rally may rise up to elections. Fall may be in the months of May, July, October if global economic situation degrades further. Now, US situation is just euphoria than any thing. To prove all medicines not worked time is required. In mean times we see this euphoria. We may see further that the bottom earlier formed may be a base for future bull phase. May we test the level once again but may not break.

Trade expectations: Buy calls in the April series. Or buy future and buy put next month.

23-3-2009: MY feeling is intact on nifty. Now, the SGX nifty is positive. Asian markets are Positive. But as far as our markets are concerned they have to come down. If nifty crosses and closed above 2880 then we may see further 300 points rise spreading to next settlement. Stochastic is at over bought zone which indicates markets may come down.

settlement pressures

19-3-2009 trading shows that though markets were flat the inner current is bullish even today. Nifty closed with good recovery at 2807 + 12 points. F & O data and FII statistics are all positive. But the point is that nifty has not crossed the strong resistance 2835-2860. Till then we may hope that markets may fall down to the target level of 2350 with in 3 weeks. Global cues are that Dow felt resistance at current level and the next day is settlement day for them. If Dow won't rise on Monday's trading one may see more weakness in Dow for the coming week.

Trade expectation:

If nifty won't crosses 2860 at closing today one may go for puts in this month/ & next month for good targets with stop loss nifty 2920.

settlement pressures

18-3-2009 trading shows that markets tested the resistance trend line of nifty at 2835 and reversed back. Nifty closed at 2795 +37 points. F & O data shows that heavy put writing. This means markets may not fall drastically. Now the Dow is positive for today and may reverse back either on Friday or Monday and turns down for a week.  Hence, if nifty could not cross 2835-2860 immediately we may see down trend target may be up to 2350 with in three to four weeks. 

Trade expectation: 

Nikkei is trading negative now. Daily Stockastic is at over bought zone and may require one more day for confirmed reversal. One may buy puts in today's intraday over bought zone if nifty won't cross 2860. The news of inflation figures may turn negative to markets and we may see negative closing today.

weakness but not strong weakness

17-3-2009 trading shows that markets tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level nifty 2805 and drifted down and closed at 2577 - 19.8 points. This was also based on Global cues. But the trading at 2750 range shows that nifty may not fall further. Global cues today are also positive. Open interest in Nifty future is -8 lakhs but very good addition is April future. Huge put writing at 2700 & 2800 levels shows that markets will go up further. FII data is also long in index future but short in stocks futures. Good buying in cash markets.
Considering global cues it is better to remove shorts any at most possible time today and try to go long. One can go long with stop loss 2700- 2685.

Hope for shorts is nifty 2830-2840 levels. If nifty faces resistance at this level markets may come down. First remove shorts and if markets drifts down at nifty 2830 zone and breaks 2800 then take shorts once again. And markets won't break 2500 this month please.

16-3-2009 trading improved bullish sentiment further and nifty closed at 2777 +58. FII data positive. F & O data also positive with addition in nifty future and heavy put option writing. Now, the Global cues are that we may loose the positive points from now as Dow yesterday showed weakness at closing and may come down for the remaining week. If nifty won't cross 2800 for closing today we may see further down fall even for this month settlement.

Trade expectation from yesterday: 

If both call and put bought yesterday,one may exit calls today if nifty won't crosses 2800-2840 conveniently and one may add puts further.

short covering or rally?

13-3-2009 trading shows a very big jump in the nifty, taking a lead from global markets, closed at 2719 +101 points. F&O data positive. FIIs are positive. Option writing is also positive.

Global cues may be positive for one to two days. We may see further short covering if nifty crosses 2740-2780-2800.

But the doubt is whether markets are reversed or taking a pause while falling.

If nifty crosses 2800 and closes with good build up in futures then one may feel a real rally and markets may not break 2500 this month.

Else, markets may fall this month it self.

At nifty 2800 Fibonacci re-tracement level of 61.8 % and 50 ema giving resistance.

Trade expectation:

Buy 2500 puts and 2900 calls immediately at 10.15 on the next day. One may think on Tuesday forenoon whether to remove puts or calls. This will give good returns for closing of settlement.

Bounce back.

12-3-2009 trading in nifty shows that bounce back was taken place due to heavy selling from the previous trading sessions. Global cues also helped to that extent. Nifty closed at 2617 + 44. Follow up buying was seen in Dow today. The rise in Dow may be on Friday's trading also and may weed out on Monday. Hence, global cues are all positive for today's trade. Open Interest in nifty futures - 11 lacks (+ ve) and heavy build up at 2500 puts was melted ( + ve). Now, after one or two days we may see further build up in puts means the fall will continue and then a new bottom may be expected. Let us wait for a clear signal for fresh build up in puts. This may happen in Monday's trades. For today trading may be based on intra day swings and that to long side. No shorts will work for today. Nifty upper levels may be up to 2720-2740-2800 maximum.

As per 9-3-2009 trading: Addition of OI in nifty futures 5.47 lakhs in March and 4.78 lakhs in April, the view is –ve.
2600 call 18 lakhs, upper level restricted up to 2650.
2400 puts 11.6 lakhs lower level limited to 2370.
Huge OI writing in April 2500 puts 11 lakhs, 2400 puts 5.7 lakhs.

Nifty levels as per sliding parallel channel the bottom may be at 2470 and to take a temporary bounce. Other wise Fibonacci retracement will also come to the level nifty 2470 and the bounce may be up to 2580-2590.

Hence, the down fall in this swing may end at nifty 2470-2370 and bounce will end at 2570-2590. One may plan to take reverse positions as per first swing of market in the coming two trading days for huge profits.
Buy 2600 calls if nifty is at 2470 and reverses.
Else buy 2400 puts if market is at 2570-2600.

fall to fall

I could not post articles in the recent days because of failure in my net connection. After braking nifty 2700 the markets continued the fall and nearing the bottom ie., 2500. Global cues are double red. Economy is double red. Direction is to down side only. Now we may expect a small rise before creating a new low. The rise may be up to nifty 2650 from 2500-2475. But, later markets may create new lows.

Closing below 2710 ?

First day of new series shows heavy shorts accumulation in nifty futures. But, as the OI in 2700 puts is still high and increasing markets may not fall below 2700. The dramatic recovery of markets from lows and closing at 2763 + for weekly closing shows that markets may not fall presently in this week as every one expects.RIL - RPL merger will also confuses us. Global cues are negitive, sgx nifty -50 now. But the fall can be agreviated only after nifty closes below 2710-2673 comfortably. Required clue is the OI in 2700 puts should come down and markets should test 2880 once again before fall.