Mid term correction???

Market could not cross nifty 5200 zone for making all time high. Before that market has to under go mid term correction/consolidation. The minimum range to down sode has to be nifty 4300. Time zone will be 3 months. Later after breakout of this range only markets target for all time highs.

18-11-09 trading was range-bound and nifty closed at 5055-7 points.

• FII bought in cash, stocks and index futures.
• F&O nifty futures added next month series open interest.(bullish)
• Option writings are balanced. (as huge addition seen at 4800 put one can buy 4900 put for testing jackpot luck) 
• US markets are flat.
• Global cues are mixed.
• SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: As seen from FII data there is no direction as of now. But as the market is facing resistance at higher levels one can go short if nifty breaks 5006 level.

As per 2 days trading FII sold in stocks and index futures and F&O nifty future shed open interest. Hence, it is expected though the market in green for the coming day book profits in longs. One can short below nifty 5025.

16-11-09 trading shows that markets opened up and traded in a narrow range and nifty closed at nifty 5058+58 points.  

• FII data shows that  bought in cash but sold in stocks & index futures.
• F&O data nifty future  o i added a small range.
• US markets were closed at new high.
• Global cues are flat.
• SGX nifty is flat to green.

Over all view: as seen from very little addition in nifty future open index and more selling ( profit booking ) by fii in F&O the nifty may face resistance here itself and corrects first for 100 points. If there is any further selling by FII in F&O then we can understand for further down side expectations. As of now don't short positional but book profits in longs. Expectation is that to the end of this week markets will complete correction as F&O role over to next month series and may start journey to up side in the next week.

13-11-09 trading show that markets took support at 4918 previous day and continued the upward journey.  Nifty closed at 5000+47 points.

• FII data more buys in cash, stocks futures and index futures.
• F&O nifty future added further means addition of longs.
• Option writing shows that more puts added and calls shed open interest.  
• US markets are bullish.
• Global cues are bullish.
• SGX nifty is in green.

Over all view: as seen from FII data and F&O data markets are preparing for upper breakout for creating new highs in this week. If any one wants to buy calls they can do with stop loss 5000 else wait for correction in the 2nd half of the week and go for calls for markets zooms in the next week.

12-11-09 trading shows that the markets faced resistance at 5020 zone not even reached 5045 and nifty closed at 4952.65.

• FII data first time sold more in stocks futures and index futures but bought a little in cash.
• F&O nifty futures sheds open interest small range.
• US markets are in red.
• Global cues are in red.
• SGX nifty is in red.
• Technical indicators are  bullish.
• Nifty support 4917 resistance is 5050.  

Over all view: As seen from the fii activity let us see today's trading for confirmation whether the fall is a correction or a continuation. If nifty falls below 4870 the mid term correction is on the cards.

11-11-09 trading continued the run and nifty closed at 5004+123 points.

• FII data more buys in cash, index futures and stocks futures (a continuous one for this month).
• F&O nifty future added further.
• Option writings: huge addition in put options means very strong bullishness and shedding in call options.
• US markets are Green to flat.
• Global cues are Green to flat.
• SGX nifty is green to flat.
• Technical indicators are bullish.
• Resistance for nifty as per hourly chart is 5045.

Over all view: As seen from the speed in rise and very huge writings in puts markets are having very high level targets. But, before making a new high market has to get corrected and that may be within two days to four days. But, the upper levels are intact.

10-11-09 trading shows that nifty faced resistance at 4930 zone and lost some ground before close at nifty 4982-16 points.

• FII data more buys in cash, stocks futures and index futures.
• F&O nifty futures sheds open interest.
• Option writings: more call writing at 4900 and puts shedding at 4900 puts.
• US markets are flat.
• Global markets are flat to positive.
• SGX nifty positive.

Over all view: As seen from FII data more longs are being added by them means this correction is only temporary one.  The final journey as expected is to long side. Else, the signals in F&O should be seen in today's trading. 

9-11-09 trading shows that the range of 4600-6900 is to be broken on upper side as predicted because of continuous long buildup by FIIs in stocks futures. Nifty closed at 4898+102 points.

• FII data more buys in cash, index futures and stocks futures (continuous for this month).
• F&O nifty futures added o i.
• All technical indicators are clearly upward. Yet nifty has to cross bearish retracement levels @4930.
• Option writings also shows bullishness by writing more puts than calls.
• US markets took huge jump by closing above 10200 mark.
• Global cues are +ve.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: Now the market is at 4930 resistance zone that is to be passed clearly. But, as seen from FII build up in F&O this resistance can be passes very easily. Then one can expect new high in this month with intermediate corrections. As of now no down side expectation beyond 100 point correction. 

6-11-09 trading shows the nifty faced resistance at opening levels and lost some steam before close at nifty 4796 +30.

• FII data : bought in cash, index futures and stocks futures.
• F&O nifty futures sheds open interest means profit booking in longs.
• Option writings: more put writing  at 4700 & 4600  and more call writing at 4800 & 4900 means the short term range is between 4900 to 4600.
• Nifty has to break the range in this month?.  
• US markets and Global cues are flat to + ve.
• SGX nifty is flat.

Over all view: As seen from FII long build up in stocks futures continuously and 26.4 lakhs index futures net buying, it is felt that final journey for this month may be to long side with immediate trading side ways for one or two days. Hence, it is felt that one may try to accumulate the calls of 4900/4800 for this week targeting the settlement closing above 4900.

4-11-09 trading bounced back the previous day's fall and nifty closed at 4711 + 149 points.

• FII data bought in cash, stocks futures (3 rd day longs) and index futures (cleared previous day's shorts).
• F&O nifty futures sheds 23.4 lakhs (cleared previous day's shorts).
• Options writing shows that calls shed open interest and 4600 puts added hugely.
• US markets traded in green but closed flat.
• Global markets are in red.
• SGX nifty green overnight but red now.
• Most of the stocks futures sheds shorts.
• Market is still below 5 day ema .
• Technical indicators are just turned up from over sold zone.

Overall view: As expected, while reversing the market most of the shorts in index and stocks futures shed and nifty gained the previous day's loss completely. Unless we see the reversal again markets will rise further before resuming the fall.

Nifty targets are 4750-4860-4930. Supports are previous day's low.

For believing the rise today's trading is to be observed for any support build up of open interest in index and stocks futures. Otherwise the fall will continues....

3-11-09 trading continued the fall and nifty lost 149 points to close at 4563.

• FII sold in cash, sold in index futures (around 25 lakhs) and bought in stocks futures. (2nd day)
  
• F&O nifty futures added open interest.
  
• US markets flat and red.
• Global markets are flat.
  
• Option writings are showing bearish.
  
• SGX nifty is + ve as of now.
  
• Levels broken very easily.
  
• Next support is at 4400-4350.
  

Over all view: As seen from the open interest addition in nifty futures and FII O I shorts in index futures the market will fall further. Else, the heavy buying in nifty futures is to be observed on intraday basis before a confirmed rise. As of now it is continuation.... fall.....

Don't try to catch the falling knife.

First day of new settlement series.

On the first day of new settlement series nifty bounced up and from there drifted downward.At mid day this drift aggravated and finally lost ground to close nifty at 4712.

• US markets were lost ground hugely on Friday's trade but gain some ground (but not strong) on Monday's trade.
• Asian markets are red -to - flat.
• FII data net buying in stocks futures, index futures, cash.
• F&O nifty future added 4.2 lakhs with discount in futures.
• Option writing shows more calls O I addition at 4900,4800,4700, 4600 too and put addition at 4600,4500,4400 puts. SGX nifty 4655 at present - 41 points.
• Technical indicators are in over sold zone.
• 10 days of continuous fall and may bounce at any time.
• Nifty support levels 4580-4350.
• Resistance 4800-4880. Today's pivot is 4750.

Over all view: As the markets are falling for the last 10 days we may expect bounce at any time. Also as per FII data in F&O first time more buying in index/stocks futures this may be first sign of support to markets but it should be analysed with one more day's data. Today trade with reference to 5 day chart and with pivot point of 4750. Any bounce is expected up to 4880 only. Even Monday's trading of US markets are not referring strength. Hence, overall view of world markets is negative. But, wait for a bounce for shorting market once again for a target of 4350-3950 to the end of November/first week of December.

nifty for 29-10-2009

On previous day nifty continued the downward journey but took support at 4785 and closed at 4826-20 points.

• FII data sold in cash.
• F&O nifty future added 6 lakhs net in the down market.
  
• Option writings: more addition at calls 4800.
  
• US markets down to down (rally may be over and leading to new lows within 1/2 to one year)
  
• Global cues are red severe selling observed in all the markets.
  
• SGX nifty red.

Over all view: The downfall has to be stopped at 4780-4740-4720 or 4600 to 4580 is possible on Friday. But, then there may be some rally in the next week/next settlement. As of now nifty may settle for this settlement at 4800 (+/- 20).

As seen from the next month option build up (which is giving a clue of nifty movement for the new settlement, perfect indications as per the past 4 settlements ) nifty range for the next settlement will be 4800 to 5000 (down side failing which nifty drifts to 4600 only).

For today's trading, as of now try to buy 4900 put or 4700 call at cheaper rate for nifty convergence at 4800. But, if nifty falls on Friday then one may go for calls in the next month.

Wonderful and a big fall of the recent days. The event of RBI cr policy made this. But the market fall was beyond 50 day ema.

• Now, the target for nifty is 4780-4740.

Up side bounce can be expected from the mid day or end of the day for next day's f&o settlement.

nifty for 27-10-09 trading

As per previous day's trading nifty closed at 4971-26 points.

• FII data shows that a small selling in cash markets and balanced trading in F&O.
  
• Nifty futures net addition ove 7 lakhs.
  
• Option writings are showing a small downward bias but support at 4900 above.
  
• US markets opened in green, showed steam but lost sharply to close in deep red.
  
• Global markets are -ve.
  
• SGX nifty -ve.
  

Over all view: Today is event day i.e., RBI credit policy. Previous day all bank stocks were down. As the settlement is very nearer and as seen from very high buildup in 4900 puts markets may not fall below this level but may not cross above 5050. Trading is intraday as per 5 day charts. But, over all international markets are showing loss of steam.

22-10-09 trading shows that the nifty breaks the long term trend line and closed at 4988.6 -75 points.

• FII data sold every where.
• F&O data shows more call writing at 5000 call and put shedding.
• Nifty future role over to next month around 9 lakhs.
  

Over all view: as seen from the breakout of the trend line and FII huge shorting in index futures and consistent shorts build up in stocks futures it may be expected that there may be continuous fall of markets for this settlement. Else the signal of reversal by the big groups to long has to be observed. Target for the nifty first level will be 4580. If there are no signs of F&O buying with volumes intraday tomorrow the above expectation will be a success.

Morning update: US markets recovered and closed remarkably well and global markets along with SGX nifty is in positive. Hence, we may expect a good opening. But, wait for buying confirmation with volumes in F&O.

21-10-2009 trading shows that nifty corrected further and closed at 5064-50.

• FII sold in cash, index and stocks futures.
  
• F&O data nifty futures sheds open interest further.
  
• Options writings shows more calls written and puts sheds.
  
• US markets rose to new highs but closed in red.
  
• Global markets are in red.
• SGX nifty lost its overnight green and now in red.
  
• Nifty supports may be 5030-4980 and 20 day ema =5022.
  
• Nifty closed below 5 day ema 5095.
  

Over all view: As it is observed from FII short positions buildup in stocks futures through out the series one may feel that this settlement may in below to previous one i.e., 4983. But, if there is any continuation of bull run, nifty has to corrects for one or two days and bounces up into next week for bullish settlement closing. Wait for one more day for confirmation. But now following the 5 day charts one may trade to downside.

20-10-2009 trading shows that the markets faced resistance at 5185 and lost ground up to 5092 and nifty closed at 5114 -28.

• FII data bought in cash.
  
• US markets were in red.
  
• Global markets are in red.
• 10 day ema 5080.
  
• 20 day ema 5018..
  
• SGX nifty is flat.
  
• F&O nifty future sheds open interest around 10 lakhs.
• Option writings: More calls were written at 5100. Puts sheds open interest.
  

Over all view: As expected markets could not continued the rise for the week. It is correcting now itself. Means, nifty may correct for two days and rise for further upward targets in the next settlement. Lower levels support may be at 5080 and 5018.

On the eve of moorath trading markets opened higher but could not sustain the rise. Nifty closed flat. But the under current is bullish as per mid cap stocks and momentum stocks. The less volumes can not give us the perfect insight for market swings. The heavy discount through out the one hour is some what tricky?.

• Nifty future sheds further means no short term trend reversal.
  
• Now US markets are bullish overnight.
  
• Global markets are bullish.
  
• FII data bought in cash, bought in index future but sold in stocks futures (as usual).
  
• SGX nifty is up.
• Shanghai Composite up & Seoul Composite up.
  

Overall view: As seen the rising wedge nifty has to face resistance at 5200. If crosses let us wait for the level 5330-5370-5400. This 5400 zone is just 75% retracement level of total fall from January 2008. My personal view is no danger for two days for longs. If there is rise with speed one may expect a complete swing reversal for the next week to close the settlement at lower levels may be 5200 zone after touching 5400. The correctionless run for the all time high within the financial year is also possible.

A view on Reliance: If crosses 2375 very strong chances of crossing 52 week high. More possibility now.

16-10-09 trading continued the rally and closed at nifty 5142+33 points. Very good run up but not reached the expected target 5190-5220 immediately.

• FII data bought in cash but the F&O data of fii was not updated till now.
• F&O nifty future shed 5+ lakhs means further run away of shorts.
• Option writing: Heavy put writing and cover of calls.
• US markets Dow recovered from lows but closed below 10k.

Over all view: If nifty crosses 5200-5250 means super bullishness may be for this settlement itself. But we may anticipate a small correction before this run up in the next week. But down side is nifty 5050-5010. These are levels as per rising wedge. One time booking profit for calls at nifty 5200 zone. Expecting bullish moorath trading.

Happy Diwali and new trading year with all trading profits.  

15-10-09 trading shows that the nifty faced resistance at 5152 and corrected to 5077, but took support at this level and nifty closed at 5109-9 points.

• FII bought in cash, sold in index and stocks futures.
• F&O data nifty future sheds -4.8 lakhs.
• Option writings more put writing than calls.
• US markets are positive. Global markets are +ve but flat.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: In the run up markets faced resistance at 5152 and corrected to 70 points but raised and closed flat. Means that the correction to the run up is over. But as seen from FII additions in stocks futures on sell side it is expected that the markets will have to come down from this levels either now it self or after some days. The nifty futures is not showing any addition of open interest to up side. This is a worrying factor for bulls. But the addition of option puts on down side gives support to the markets from major down fall.

Hold calls above nifty 5050 for a target 5220-5310. If nifty breaks 5050 buy puts but stop loss for puts will be 5050 only.

14-10-09 trading shows that the markets are in full zoom to Diwali eve. Nifty closed at 5118 +64.  

• FII data: bought in cash, bought in index futures, but sold in stocks futures.
• F&O data: Nifty futures shed open index.
• Option writings: 5100 puts added.
• US markets: Dow crossed 10K.
• Global cues are positive.
• SGX nifty is positive.

Over all view: Nifty may trade up with out correction up to Diwali for a closing around 5310-5350.

12-10-09 trading shows that the markets took support on the long term support line i.e., nifty 4930 and bounced back to rise. Nifty closed at 5054 +109 points.

• FII data more buying in cash, index futures, and stocks futures.
• F&O data nifty futures reduced o i means strength not added for blind bull run. options writings shows more put writings and buy back of calls shows bullishness.
• US markets are flat means weakness.
• Global cues are in green but weak.
• SGX nifty flat.

Over all view: As the markets took support on the trend line it is now expected there wil be some bull run may be up to nifty 5220. Rising wedge resistance line is at that zone. Then if markets turn down we will see it later. 

9-10-09 trading shows that the news Infosys or Reliance won't boost up the markets. Nifty closed at 4945 - 57 points.

• FII data sold in Cash, index futures and stocks futures and building the shorts in stocks futures strongly mean markets will fall from this level.
  
• F&O nifty futures open interest added further means shorts.
  
• Options writings shows more call writing at 5000 level and this should become less than Rs 30/- before a reversal in the markets.
• US markets are in bull stream.
  
• Global markets may be in flat to bullish.
  

Over all view: As seen from FII short positions in stocks futures and fresh shorts in index futures at long term support levels of nifty 4930 zone the lower levels will be far below. Even if markets show some strength at the time of opening on Monday this won't stay for ever. Market has to break the levels and retrace to 4600 levels before a rise.

• The target for the break of rising wedge from 3920 to 5080 and to break 4930 will be up to the 3780 zone.
• Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%  from 2539 to 5110 matches to 3534. 
• Time zone may be 2 and 1/2 months. But, will the market stay or slide further ? depends up on the RBI money pull back policy.

5 ema (high) =5048        5 ema (low)=4958.  Markets closed below 5 day ema(low). Hence, until the markets close above this 4958 longs can be avoided.

Stop loss for the downward journey is breaking the 5100 levels with speed in the next week.

8-10-09 trading shows that the positive opening because of Reliance bonus issue and Global cues were not sustained. Nifty closed in green above 5000 but at 5002. FII data sold in cash, sold in stocks futures, bought in index futures. F&O data shows that more put writing and call buy back. Nifty index future o i added further. US markets are green. Global cues are green to weak. Technical indicators are weak. Market is nearing to break the long term support levels. Over all view: As infosys result swings the markets it is expected that the markets may give direction on Monday trading only. Be cautious till then. The rise in the markets will be only after cutting the long term support levels and market may test 4800 levels.

7-10-09 trading shows that the rally was not taking place by facing the top resistance at nifty 5060. Nifty closed by correcting more at 4986-41.

• FII data shows that more buying in cash, index futures, and stocks futures.
  
• F&O nifty Open Interest added 8 lakhs means shorts.
• US markets are flat. Global markets are flat.
  
• Option writings are at 5100 5000 calls and 4700 4900 puts.
  
• Long term support is at 4927.
  
• Raising wedge upper level is at 5130.
  
• 20day ema =4927.
  
• 5 ema high=5062.
  
• 5 ema low=4970.
  

Over all view: As the Reliance bonus issue makes reliance to go up one may expect some rise in the markets. Tomorrow will be Infosys result. Now we are at long term support levels. FIIs once again came into buying. If market takes support at lower levels and bounces one may expect further rally that may leads to 18 k at Diwali. Let us check the trading pattern for today and tomorrow. If market breaks the long term support then immediate target will be 4550.

6-10-09 trading shows that the steep fall & rise implies that short term correction is over and further bull trend is on. Nifty closed at 5027 +24 points.

• US markets continued the bounce and the global cues are +ve.
  
• FII and DII all sold more than buys.(But market raised?).
  
• 5 day ema high = 5055 and low is 4968.
  
• Major support trend line is at 4870.
  

Over all view: As we see more selling in the F&O by FIIs there may not be steep rise immediately. this week may be an event based and balanced one. Wait for good opportunity or trade as per 5 ema high/low levels. Go long in nifty futures above 5055 and short below 4968.

Now I am following 5 day ema high vs low for trading nifty future short term. Nifty high 5059 low 4992. Short nifty future below 5059 SL same and go long above it. If falls below low 4992 SL will be 4992 and to reverse above it. US, global markets are weak. SGX nifty is in red. As nifty falls below 5080 now wait for longs for 2 days.

Now the US markets are drifting down. As expected if S&P falls below 1033, may be, the rise is over. And the bear market fall may resume. What happens in the markets let us see. A point of observation.

s&p support 990 - resistance 1041-1061.

30-9-09 trading shows that markets took a breakout and nifty closed at 5083. A good break out.

• FIIs bought in cash, stocks futures but sold in index futures.
• F&O nifty index sheds 2.5 lakhs (bearish).
• Option writings at 5000 put (15 lakhs) and reduction in 5100 calls (bullish).
• US markets were in red yesterday.
• Global cues are -ve.
• SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: Still 50-50. Now sensex is at 17126. The range may be sensex 17450-17750. The doubt is whether the markets take big correction (20%) before crossing 18k or after. Bullishness may be one day? Let us wait and see.

29-9-09 trading shows that bullishness is unbelievable as markets faced resistance at 5000 zone but nifty closed above 5000 @5007 +48 points.

• Fii data bought in cash, index futures, stocks futures means bullishness.

• F &o data,, 5000 5100 5200 calls added more and put 5000 4900 added. @ 5000 more call buildup.

• Index futures – 2.1 lakhs stocks futures shorts cleared and longs added.

• Nifty 2 days swing up stop loss 4932. Nifty 4920-5020.Support 4980 – 4930-4900.

Overall view: As US markets bounced on previous day it was expected world markets will take support at current levels and the bull phase will continue but yesterday's night Dow closed in red. Asian markets are flat. SGX nifty is in +ve. But as the writings at 5100,5200 calls was increased the rise may not be strong. But FIIs are bullish. Hence, range is 50-50 from 5000 levels. In this situation one can take both call and put at 100 points distance.

But forgetting all technical view is negative only after nifty breaks support line @4830.Till then range bound trading.

Overnight US markets rise reversed my opinion of correction in Indian stock markets. As the Dow is positive now and SGX nifty +ve, Asian markets are in green. More put option writings shows that nifty will rise further and no put buying/shorts as of now.

FEAR OF MAJOR CORRECTION

Now all the world markets are at correction and if falls further this may lead to major correction in all the markets.

• US S&P if falls below 1033 then falls further and the top may be over.
• Like-wise if nifty falls below 4800 we may expect major correction in the Indian markets (medium term) targeting 1117 points correction from 4800.

Means we may expect an attempt to fill the gap up opening of Nifty upper sealing on the eve of Indian Govt elections. Beware of the fall.

My view is buy one lot of nifty put 4900 and stop loss for this is 5050.

24-9-2009 trading and settlement is over with two days jerks and finally after recovering from the opening lows nifty closed at 4986+16 points.

• FII bought in cash further, sold in stocks futures, bought in index futures.
• F&O nifty open interest added over 23 lakhs.
  
• Option writings shows 4900 puts added 16 lakhs (35.8 lakhs) and 5000 calls added 8.8 lakhs (25 lakhs) means bullishness.
  
• US markets were in red.
  
• Global markets are also in red.
  
• SGX Nifty is in red.

Range of big rising wedge 1117 (5036-3919) break out is at 4796, 10 ema=4930, 20 ema=4850, Fibonacci retracement levels 4775,4612,4480,4347,3920.

23-9-2009 trading closed with a jerk to bulls (as expected one time before close of the settlement) and nifty faced the resistance 5030 closed at 4970 -50 points.

• FII data huge buying in cash, selling in stocks and index futures.
  
• F&O nifty oi added 6 lakhs.
  
• Option writings -21 lakhs in 5000 puts and +2.4 lakhs in 5000 calls.
  
• US markets rised and closed in red by loosing 81 points.(Bullish breakout of resistance was weeded out).
  
• Global cues are red.
• SGX nifty is in red.
  

Over all view: today is settlement day and nifty may close between 4900-5000. Rising wedge breakout will be 4820. But parabolic SAR is at 4910. Lower support levels will be 4800-4530-4140(may not anticipate at present situation).

• As per news papers reports World bank is providing loan of $2 Billion to public sector banks (Bullish view from these levels).
  
• Banks are encouraging short term loans as having huge liquidity.
  
• FM statement says-" The Government is keen on continuing with the low-interest rate regime till the signs of global economic recovery become stronger".
  

As is evident from huge buying from fii in cash market (steep increase) and with the other news it is anticipated that the present levels may not be top one and even after some correction we may see higher levels in immediate future. Long term bullish view expecting a new high with in six months.

22-9-2009 trading shows that the controlled rise was still on and nifty closed at 5020+44 points. A close above 5000 created history. Even the settlement jerks to downside were not given till today.

• FIIs bought in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
• Consistent buying by FIIs in cash is a bullish phenomena to be continued.
  
• F&O nifty futures OI 10 lakhs added.
  
• Options writings 5000 puts 9 lakhs added and 5100 calls 8 lakhs added.
• US markets are +ve but Global cues are -ve.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Overall view: Nifty Open interest is concentrated at 5000-5100 and nifty may close in between these levels for settlement. Addition of Open interest in nifty futures is bullish indication and as expected one may buy 5200 calls of next month. (October range is 4800-5300 expecting markets to touch both the levels.)

18-9-2009 trading was range bound with further unwinding of September series and carry over to next month. Nifty traded weak and closed in little green. Nifty is at 4976+10 points.

• FIIs huge buying in cash, selling in index and stocks futures,
• F&O nifty futures over all reduction of OI -6 lakhs means no further rise in this series.
  
• Option writings shows more put writings further.
  
• US markets are -ve,
  
• Global cues -ve to flat.
  
• SGX nifty is -ve.

Over all view: Markets may be in the range bound trades for the settlement. Nifty bullish above 5030 bearish below 4930.But as it is expected continuation of bullishness for the next settlement one can plan for call buying on the settlement day.

17-9-2009 trading shows that the nifty speed was halted at 5000 and nifty closed at 4966+8 points.

• FII bought in cash, sold in index and stocks futures.
  
• F&O data nifty futures Open interest was decreased means rise is stopped.
  
• Option writing shows that nifty is converging at 4900 for settlement.
  
• US markets were at -ve.
  
• Global markets are -ve. SGX nifty -ve.
• Negative divergence in daily charts means correction for this rise is on the way.
  

Over all view: Now that nifty is facing unwinding pressures in the current series and it may end around 4900 +/- 50 points. Very big rise was seen in many stocks which requires considerable correction before further rise. But lower support level is just around 100 points. Let us see how far correction will happen in stocks prices with in the 100 points fall. As the over all sentiment is bullish for Diwali one has to wait and watch for further rise that may be after end the of the current settlement. Markets will be Range bound for the present week and next week.

• As open interest in 4800 put of October (17.8 lakh) is increasing one may expect the markets to correct up to 4800 levels before a big rise.

16-9-2009 trading shows the continuation momentum.

• Nifty closed at 4958+66 points.
  
• FII data, F&O data, option writings are all fully bullish.
  
• US markets and Global cues.
  

• SGX nifty are +ve.

Nothing to look down. But for settlement the markets will be bullish even up to Diwali and as expected one may see Sensex 18000 +.

One can buy calls 5200,5300 of October as of now.

15-9-2009 trading resumed the bullish trend with out giving any lower jerk and nifty closed at 4892+83 points. FII data, F&O data, Option writing all are showing renewed bullishness as of now. US markets, Global markets, SGX nifty are in green. Markets will go up further with intra day jerks. Target 5200-5300 next month.

New posts could not be written because of ill health. And now I am continuing the blog posts.

As seen from the previous day's trading the markets are just passing on the time. Operators target is just absorbing of option premium. Nifty traded a little bit downwards and nifty closed at 4808-21 points. FII data sold small range in cash, sold in index futures and bought in stocks futures. US markets are +ve. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is flat to - ve as of now. Technical indicators are just downing from over bought zone.

Over all view: The breakout of nifty 4730 could not sustain above 4880 and from there markets are drifting downwards. It is expected that nifty may test the 4730 again and take upward journey once again for closing the settlement around 4900 zone.

Alert : Activity is seen in October options 5200-5300 calls and 4400-4500 puts. Hence, markets will make journey to both the levels in the next month.

Some news: list of US banks closed

US recovery difficult as jobless rate hits 9.7

Double-dip recession risk rising: El-Erian

Investors Pulled $4.95 Billion From Equity Funds Last Week, Added to Bonds

I feel that as seen from the above news links one can understand that the problems are not yet over and we may see further bear phase as all the international markets will undergo for double dip recessions. One can not be confident over the stock investments as of now. It is expected 2010 will be in down trend.

3-9-2009 trading shows that though the world, Shanghai were in green our markets positive opening could not sustain and closed at 4594-14 points. (This is because of FII heavy short buildup in index and stocks futures on previous day).

• FII sold in cash, index, stocks futures but to a smaller extent.
  
• F&O nifty future added a round figure of 6 lakhs (?).
  
• Option writings heavy 4700 call and some 4600 put writing shows that range is shrinking.
  
• US markets closed in +ve just for closing.
  
• Global markets are flat.
• SGX nifty is + ve.

• Technical indicators are continuing downward.

Over all view: As nifty is nearing the strong support line ie., nifty 4550 one should be more cautious. As we expected that for the initial activity of options of puts @4500 and calls @4900,5000 at the starting of the series, nifty has to make journey to both the extremes, one side level is reaching means we may expect nifty to rise and reach 4900-5000 in near future, may be in one week. If nifty could not cross 4700 zone in the next week and breaks down side support line of 4550 one can expect the upper level is history.

2-9-2009 trading shows that the range bound trading with negative closing. Nifty closed at 4608.
FII sold in cash, F&O too. F&O data is deletion of positions and addition of shorts in some stocks futures. US markets were in consolidated and in red expected the rise is over.

Over all view: As Global cues are +ve as of now.
Nifty may take support within one or two days to have a considerable rally for over a week. Beware of shorts as of now. Stop loss for longs is nifty 4520.

1-9-2009 trading shows that though the markets tried to break the resistance barrier of 4730 could not make it for closing, loosing its steam nifty closed at 4625-37 points.

• FII sold in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added 22.8 lakhs (very heavy?). (Bloom berg data is showing that these additions are by buy orders?)
  
• Options-- huge 4700,4800 calls writing and some 4600 calls writing but huge build up of 4600 puts and good 4700 puts writing too.
• US markets are started drifting.
  
• Global markets are in red.
  
• SGX nifty is in red.
  
• Technical indicators continued the downward journey.

Over all view: As felt the steam for bullishness was not build up at 4730 zone but drifted down with speed. International markets pressures were build up now. Heavy build up in nifty futures was seen with huge addition. Though the heavy put writing over 40 lakhs at 4600 feels support to markets at these levels, if we read linked with nifty futures build up this is all may be for a big fall. Aberration to this is FIIs were still long in index futures. One thing is sure markets will take drastic move from these levels in either direction.
Markets may break 4580 today.

bear phase re-started???

31-8-2009 trading shows that the Shanghai pressures were felt and nifty closed at 4662-70 points.

• FII sold in cash, sold in stock futures but bought in index futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added further 11 lakhs (continuous addition above 4600 may be to down side), options writings at 4600 puts and 4700 calls.
  
• US markets are weak, Global markets today are at flat and Shanghai too just changing colours at flat.
• Technical indicators turned downwards just now but we have to check them with volume buildup for one or two days.
• SGX nifty is in green as of now.
  

Over all view: As earlier felt the bullish buildup was not seen today also. Means one can confirm that the operators are not interested/able to rise markets from this levels. May be due to the international markets pressures our markets are not able to go up for ever. All the markets are to enter in fresh downward trend (First in this is SHANGHAI)(stop loss is nifty 4750 and sensex 16000 with volumes). If this will be true one can trade some thing (may be nifty futures one lot) to downside for a target of NIFTY 1700-1800 within six months. Carry over shorts for six months to achieve this target. But with some intermediate rises.

DO NOT believe the Green on the screen from now onwards. OR read our markets with international markets.

28-8-2009 trading, the first day of the new settlement, shows that with a small intra-day jerk nifty closed strongly above yearly high 4732 +44 points.

• FII data not yet fully supportive to this with volume build up in F&O.

• The nifty future addition of 13 lakh and option writings are showing positiveness.
• US markets are weak to flat. Global cues may be weak to flat on Monday.
• All markets are ready to fall and to enter fresh bear run led by Shanghai this time.
• Sensex has not yet crossed 16000 mark.
• Though it is strong enough to believe the bullishness one has to be cautious until nifty to cross 4780.
• Volume buildup in F&O by FIIs that may happen on Monday/Tuesday otherwise cannot believe this bull run and one may buy 4300 puts for this month. (Target may be below 4300)
• Bullish Nifty target will be 5000-5100. The technical indicators are also not yet showing reversal.

Be cautious until nifty to cross 4780

GOOD GREEN GOING.

The settlement trading yesterday of nifty shows that bullishness prevailed further though the reports of RBI/FM/Drought, etc. and nifty closed at 4688 +7 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings are all shows green going further. US markets re bounce from red and today's Asian markets green, SGX positiveness all shows the same.

Now, technical indicators are bullish but for the breakout of resistance level of 4731 nifty and that may happen today. The target for nifty in this month is 400 positive points with intermediate corrections. All the corrections are up to 4500 -4600 only. Happy new settlement to you all. There may not be major fall in this settlement please.

settlement pressures..

25-8-2009 trading shows that as expected the markets took a dip but rises well to close nifty at 4659 +16 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings shows that markets will be bullish further. US and Global markets are Mixed as Shanghai is in red again. SGX nifty is in +ve as of now.

Over all view: We are nearing the peak level of 4720 and markets are facing resistance once again (divergence in one hour charts and continuation of fall in Shanghai). But as per option writings markets should close above 4600 and below 4700 for this month. Option buildup in next month series shows that the range is between nifty 4500-5000 (both will be reached). The flow of IPOs shows that markets will rise further.

Hence, the trading on Friday is most important for the trend setting. It is better to have hedging for these three days for the longs/shorts. Dow may corrects for further two days please....

24-8-2009 trading shows that markets opened gap up and continued to close at nifty 4643+114 points. FII data more buys, F&O data long side buildup , more put option writing are showing bullishness and it will continue further. Though there may be some pressure during the days of settlement closing markets will rise well. Huge put 4500-4600 writing shows that settlement closing will be above 4600 and below 4700.

Global cues are that Dow rise was arrested and Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is +ve as of now.

Over all view: If for the sake of settlement markets comes below 4600 buy calls of next month. We can expect bullishness in the first week of next month series.

21-8-2009 trading shows that markets took support at nifty 4400 and closed 4528 +75 points. A good 125 points intra day rise. Dow closed at 10 month's high. FII data, F&O data, Option writings are all showing bullishness to be continued in the coming week. Hence, one may expect a breakout of nifty 4730 in the near future. Don't short in the coming weeks. Upper targets of 5000-5200 may be achieved in the next month.

I continue the blogging intra day through twitter which is on the right side of the page.

20-8-2009 trading shows that markets are preparing to the settlement closure. Nifty in this week traded up and down alternatively and closed at 4453. As seen from FII trading they sold in cash, more buying in index and stock futures. F&O data seen in shifting of nifty futures to next month, option writing shows range is 4500-4400-4300 only. Global cues are US +ve, Asian markets are -ve as of now. SGX nifty is flat.

Over all view: All pressures in international markets were fully absorbed by our operators till now with out breaking nifty 4350. May be the international pressures are over and we are nearing to settlement. Hence, markets are converging to a point that may be 4400-4500. As seen from the weekly chart if we see one lower weekly closing ie., below 4353.45 today we may see a big correction in further weeks. As of today it is only to intra day.

19-8-2009 trading shows that our markets are also corrects now it self before reaching 5000 zone. As the China Markets cues are bearish our markets were felt the same. Nifty closed at 4394-64. FII data is selling in cash, a little selling in index futures but buying in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures added 5 lakhs in Aug series and 12.8 lakhs in Sep series. Option writings 4500 & 4400 calls and 4300 and 4200 puts were added. Huge build up in 4300 put shows markets may at least take support at 4250 range. Now US markets were traded from red to green. Global markets are flat to green. SGX nifty is +30 now.

Over all view: As the markets are at most felt support zone of nifty 4350, one can go long here with stop loss 4350 as more support from our operators is expected here.

18-8-2009 trading created in the minds whether the rise yesterday is just a bounce after major fall or not?. Nifty closed at 4458+71 points. FII sold in cash, index futures but bought in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures is -9 lakhs option writings more puts at 4300-4400. Global cues are just positive. SGX nifty is also +ve.

Over all view: The technical indicators are all showing a fall but markets took support on the trend line. Range bound for today but if markets fall below the nifty 4350/ sensex 15000-14700 we see very big correction up to 12200 sensex. This is the target of rising wedge breakout on the daily charts too. Let us wait for breakout. But rumors in the bazar is that sensex to go up to 19000 in the near term??????

17-8-2009 trading followed the china and lost ground. Nifty closed near to 50 day ema at 4388-192 points. Entire world markets felt the shock. Now, FII data huge selling in cash, little shorts in index futures and stocks futures, F&O data huge build up ie., 20 lakh addition with discount means shorts addition, option writings also huge writings in 4500 calls and even 4400 calls, and huge reduction in 4500 puts and little in 4400 puts but 4300 & 4200 puts were added. Now, DOW was weak, but Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is + 15.

Over all view: As the huge addition in nifty future is worry some and huge call writings, all technical indicators are showing down side the present situation may lead to major fall.

14-8-2009 trading was profit booking after a big rise. Nifty closed at 4580 -25 points. The problem is that nifty future open interest was shed once again about 8 lakhs means no rise in short term?... Addition is required for a continuation of rise of markets. Global markets are all at sliding. FII data, F & O data, options writings are not on greenish side. SGX nifty is at -ve.

Over all view: Nifty short below 4400 and long 4730 for super bearish/bullish. In the mean time only intra day trading.

13-8-2009 trading as expected took huge jump and due to short covering markets closed at 4604+147 points. FII data in cash and futures bullish, F&O data deletion of -14.6 lakh in nifty futures is bullish but the nifty futures should add substantially on Friday for further bullishness. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is +ve.

Over all view: As seen from chart of nifty with fan lines, nifty took support on 50% line (above 50 day ema line) and goes up. The upper level target is 4900 zone may be with in a week. Every one is eager to see the break out of previous high 4730 zone for further bullishness. But I feel this level will be broken on Friday/Monday. Wait with longs up to 4880.

12-8-2009 trading shows that the rising wedge break out target on 30 min chart from 4730 to 4378 was achieved. Markets recovered fully from the morning major fall means bullish view. Nifty closed at 4458-14. FII data sold in cash, more selling in index & stocks futures means -ve view. But F&O nifty oi increase in continuation with previous day's reduction is in +ve view. Option writing is balanced. US DOW in +ve, Global cues +ve, SGX nifty +ve as of now. Downing channel of 30 min candle break out to up side was seen today targeting 4625.

Over all view: As seen from the Global cues, and trading style of the previous two days it is expected that the swing reversal from down side is felt. Fall from nifty 4730 to 4357 is over and markets have to go up. Technical indicators on 30 min, 1 hour charts are reversed but on daily charts one more day is required to precipitate the bullishness.

One can go long buy calls stop loss nifty 4360. Target to up side will be above 4700-...

Retracement level from 30 min chart: 4500-4545-4590-4625.

11-8-2009 trading shows weak opening, taking support at 4400 and a rally up to 4510, but before closing a big correction and finally closed at 4471 in green. FII sold in cash, balanced in index futures, bought in stocks futures, F&O nifty sheds oi, option writings 4300-4400 puts, 4500-4600 calls were added. Global cues weak, SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: Let us see weather markets takes support at 4320-4280 and bounce back. If 4280 broken then entire view will be bearish.

10-8-2009 trading shows that though the markets opened up due to positive global cues corrected further continuously up to nifty 4226 and later bounced back in to positive territory once again. Then again the selling pressure continued which aggravated at the closing time to the lower levels of 4400. Nifty closed at 4438 -44 points down.

FII selling in cash -> weakness, buying in index & stocks futures -> alert, F&O data nifty future added in the down market -> weakness, option writings in addition to 4400 calls addition 4400-4300 puts also added -> balanced. SGX nifty +ve, Global cues : Dow - ve, Asian markets +ve.

Technical indicators are required one more day correction for showing fully oversold signals. Nifty support levels are 4325-4260-4230 and resistance 4576-4588 (5 &10 day sma)

Over all view: As the US fed in at 2 day meeting now, one may expect some reversal on Wednesday onwards in our markets. Wait for reversal signals as of now. Try to buy 4500 call at Rs60/- for very huge gains in this month.

7-8-2009 trading continued the downward journey and nifty closed at 4481-105 points. FII data, F&O data, option writing shows that weakness is building up and it will take some more days to reverse the markets to bullishness. But as of now Global cues and SGX nifty are all showing positiveness. Hence, one may expect a +ve opening of our markets but.... tomorrow/ later we may see further fall to finally reach the oversold zones before markets swings to up side. I expect markets should touch nifty 4320-4220-4230 level support line before a big bounce. Before that all other rises are a part of game!...

Nifty levels : stop loss for the positions are previous day's levels.

6-8-2009 trading gave a very strong resistance impact at 4730 by dipping the market beyond the support trend lines....nifty closed at 4586-109 points. Technical indicators are turned to down side. Fii data, F&O nifty future addition, option writings shows the fall may continue further today. Global cues are -ve and SGX nifty is also -ve as of now. The rising wedge base levels of nifty 4420 on 30 minute chart may be tested in the worst case but there is a chance of bounce in between also. Let us wait and see the support zones. In sensex terms 15300-14900 are support levels. Keep the shorts up to the levels and later one can study ie., on Monday's trading for up side journey.

5-8-2009 trading also disturbed the traders whether to short or long in the markets. Markets corrected very well but closed in green at the end. Nifty is at 4694+14 points. FII data, F&O data nifty future added 9 lakh shares, option writings are showing positive bias. SGX nifty is in red. Global cues are +ve except US markets which were in red yesterday.

Over all view: Technical indicators are still not at fully over bought. Hence there is room for further highs but as we are waiting for good correction over 200 points at a stretch market is not so to give at once. No view for swing reversal immediately, only intra day trading.

4-8-2009 trading as expected faced resistance at 4720 zone at the opening trades and slides down to day low nifty 4640 and closed at 4680 -31 points. FII data a little bit negative, f&o data nifty future sheds 18 lakhs shares dangerous???, option writing nifty range is in between 4600-4700. Global cues are slightly positive, SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: I have expected a small correction at this level to the extent of 150-200 points and bounce of markets to new highs of 5000-5200 in this month. As expected markets are showing resistance at 4720 zone, hence one can go short at this level stop loss 4750 and go long at 4511.

Nifty may take support 4655-4636-4617-4511.

3-8-2009 trading continued its journey to up side and nifty closed at 4711 +75 points. FII data, F& O nifty data, option writings are showing continuation of bullishness. Top end of raising wedge on 30 minutes chart was reached i.e., at 4720.

Demand for 4900-5000 calls was picked up. Now as per sensex market is just at 16000 and may require a little correction at this zone. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is + ve.

Over all view: Longs alert as expected there may be a small correction with in 1 to 2 days before markets start rising to final destination. One may try to book profits in calls with in 2 days. Nifty target to up side is max 100 points before a reversal.

31-7-2009 trading shows that the markets are continuing the rally and nifty closed at 4636+65 points. Though there was slide at the evening the markets pulled up with a jerk. This shows that the targets are at up side as of now. FII data, F&O nifty, option writing shows positiveness. Global cues are not positive but slightly negative. SGX nifty is in - ve as of now. The rising wedge on 30 minute charts target may be 4720 and if falls target may be 4425. But in between there are strong supports at 4600 - 4550 -4500. As of now there were no short side build up and option sales has not yet completed. Hence, as the final target of the month is to up side market will fall one time and tempt the traders to short and then finally markets lead to up side for the targets 4880-5200-etc.

First alert 4615-4580 to down side but do not trade to down side. As markets may correct at 4720-4750 one can wait for down side trade just for 100-150 points fall only.

new settlement - bullish

The closing day of settlement was bullish and nifty closed at 4571. Global cues are bullish. FII data, F&O data, option writing all are bullish. Nifty swing from 4500-4700-4880 expected. If nifty closes below 4600 then only we can think differently.

Settlement pressures

29-7-2009 penultimate day of settlement met with huge swing to down side over 150 points and a good recovery. Nifty closed at 4514-51 points.

FII data (over 25 lakhs nifty selling means - ve.), F&O nifty future addition(read with FII data means - ve.), option writings (more put writings means +ve.). Global cues are resisting to negativity (How much time?). SGX nifty -ve. Technical indicators are just turned to downward.

Over all view: Today is settlement day. Now that markets yielded to the resistance faced for 4 days. Is it just for settlement or for further fall? That is to be assessed on Friday's trading. Support levels are at nifty 4250 zone and bullishness is good only after nifty crossing 4600 level. In between it is only for intra day. But beware of shorts by FIIs which may lead to further fall. Will the Shanghai Composite jerk on yesterday be a trigger for a major fall in all international exchanges or a scattered one.

Alert: downward bias for the two days please.

28-7-2009 trading shows that the selling pressure is being absorbed to keep the markets at a high and to pull up further as a time bound target. Nifty closed at flat 4564-8 points. Fii data, f&o data, option writing shows that markets won't fall now, though the technical indicators are at over bought levels.

Over all view: If nifty crosses 4600 fully bullish targeting 5200 in the next month. And if nifty brakes the 4450 level then only weakness. But advantage bulls.