SOME POSITIVES

Today markets may open huge +ve as Singapore nifty is trading at + 8%. O K. F & O data is showing + ve potential. But selling from FII was not stopped. Hence, one may book profits in longs and can go shorts today itself. Max level for nifty may be up to 3050-2950.

VERY GOOD SENTMENT.

Very good sentiment persisted on the eve of moorat trading in Indian stock markets along with global markets. Dow was also at huge jump yesterday. Asian markets are also huge + ve. Singapore Nifty is at 2780. So the opening trades are at 2800 nifty. But what happens to settlement? We may expect very good settlement for this month after great losses. Fluid situation in the international markets still exists. We can not expect what happens in the near future. If any one buys stocks treat them for trading only. Trade long for today and at the end one may hedge the positions with a put. For the next month buy nifty future and buy spot put.

HAPPY DIWALI - HAPPY MOORAT TRADING-

I wish you all very happy diwali & happy moorat trading.  I wish all my friends with huge investments to see bright lights of wealth on their family from moorat to moorat i.e., in 2009. 

For today's trades: 

Markets bounced very well at around nifty 2300 (2254) and closed at 2524. A remarkable recovery of 10% from lower levels with a sign of happiness (at least for moorat trading). Though DOW closed lowest yesterday the future dow is trading +ve at present.  Asian markets were in +ve. F & O data shows that FII were long in index futures.  Settlement pressures are on. Thinking all we may feel that today we may trade + ve and close even higher to open +ve tomorrow. But for closing of settlement any thing may happen. Kindly exit/ book profits any at least tomorrow morning trades.  What happens to the DOW tomorrow we don't know. New financial problems are creeping up internationally which may result further down turn in all the markets. Bottom may be sensex 6500.  Let us wait and see. One may buy shares for investments in the month of December 2008. One may buy 2400 put and 2800 call next month series.

DOWN LEVEL DROWNED???

If you squeeze tomato you will get some juice but if you do the same the world (globe) you will get the red carrot juice -like- through investors eyes. You cannot imagine the feel of the individual small investors.  If any one is with surplus money O K. But for middle class small investors there was no recipe.  The speed with which markets were fallen yesterday shows that the bottom was drowned and we have to search for it in the Pacific ocean. 

 But I feel the bottom may be nifty 2300 and the range for trade for further months may be max 400 points upside. One for a trading purpose can buy and sell some stocks that too index based for quick gains.  

FUNDAMENTALS, the spelling was broken and we have to construct it later. BOOK VALUE is history the stock market and its prices are future predictions.  Like some TV channels says that the prices are attractive at these levels are not at all good. The fall should be time tested at least for a quarter to enter for investment/average buying. If everything not goes unwell one may go for long at Nifty 2300 level.

F & O data is showing huge shorts into the system that may lead further down turn to the markets.

LAST BUT ONE ? ??? ?

Our markets reached last but one stage i.e., 2900 before a final (compared with a short term trading range) nifty 2600, may be before this settlement???. Addition of Open Interest in November series is dangerous to longs. Hence markets will go First to down side before going up side. Nifty closed at 2943 after touching low of 2917. Now Dow is trading +ve. Today's Global markets were all at - ve zone. Our FM statement regarding FII stock lending reversal is not fully clear as per time frame. Inflation is getting reduced. Petroleum minister's statement to reduce rates in the next week is also a +ve factor. RBI credit policy ???.

So we may see many big swings intra day for the coming weeks which gives an opportunity for option traders October series. Just buy below 20 price and sell at 60 + during the coming week. But be biased to down sides only.

May be we see a big run in the first 2 weeks in next month. Be prepared for buying 3300 calls November series below Rs40 to sell them 5 times +.

Get ready for down trades in the journey to nifty 2900-3050-2600 and -2900-3200-3500.

This is all my view but the big intra day swings are creating more pain to swing positional traders. Hence, one may confine to intra day option trades based on intra day charts than swing positional trades until nifty tests 2600 ( may be 2 times ) next weeks.

FALL CONTINUES..

Yesterday's markets shows that a renewed selling around the globe.  Dow(n) continues today too.  We will be further - 5% today and touch nifty 2900. No specific boost from FII meeting with SEBI.  If any one wants to play to downside that is only considering the settlement pressures. Trade by intraday charts only.  If you feel anything dead cheep in call rates go for calls at throw away prices to test the luck. In my view NIFTY 2600 -2500 will be a range for more time to markets.

I want to trade to long today from 2900 to 3000 nifty only.

SETTLEMENT ROLE OVER

Markets opened and closed in + ve zone  as expected and the f & o statistics were also showing the a good role over particularly in Nifty future. Short covering and long positions by FIIs was observed in F & O. Presently, market is influenced by one FII selling and second is our regulator's efforts to provide liquidity to DIIs.  Some news is on TV channels that a ban on short sale is imminent.  

US markets are in red But we have to see the closing.  I feel that though the Global cues may be of anything tomorrow (opening may be - ve) our markets will move up ward in the wedge shown in yesterday's post and the target is still nifty 3450-3470. But for settlement markets are targeting to the range of nifty 3200-3400. One may think of reversal at nifty 3450.

+ve developments? ! ? !

Yesterday's trades shows a violent fluctuations in the market.  This may be due to some swing reversal attempts/role-overs.  Now that we are at sensex 10000 range which is a psychological barrier for one and all.  However, in the international markets also very heavy efforts were on to maintain the liquidity and pave a way for confidence in the common investors. Repo rate cut by RBI and expected short sale ban by SEBI at any point of time are good to markets.  Our PM & FM are also giving statements regarding the stability of economy/ banking system.

One way to speak our markets were expected to take temporary support at these levels. The falling wedge shows that nifty will be bullish only after 3470. Even one may take chance to short market at nifty 3450 target will be lower edge of wedge/ new low (2900) for settlement. If nifty breaks the upper level of 3470 then market may go up to 3650 or more depending on the FII positions.

At present Asian markets are +ve & SGX nifty +ve and markets will open in +ve and may close in +ve for today.

YES -ITs BELOW 10 K...

what a slide? STEAM is not valid even to one day. A huge fall in heavy weights led the sensex below 10 k. Then, I feel, for a support nifty may have to touch the lower parallel line in the below chart given in previous post, may be in the next week. the reversal may be max up to nifty 2900 - 3200.

Dow was also in -ve closing on Friday. Asian markets may also be in -ve tradeing for monday. Hence, our markets may also be in gap down opening. As some support measures are on for Mutual Funds, we may not expect huge selling. Be careful for bind short in the market. Intra day trend is important from now onwards. As far as sensex point of view level will be 8800. Nifty level is 2900.

SENSEX 10 K STRUGGLE ??? HOW MANY DAYS???

Our heads of regulating bodies are at severe struggle than ever before to provide liquidity in banking system. Though the fundamentals will erode as time goes on the present pressures on the markets are heavy selling by FII coupled with the very heavy redemption pressures from our Mutual funds.

On the one side our Govt agencies are working well to provide liquidity by cutting the CRR rate. A chance of repo rate cut is also there. Latest curb on PSUs not to press for redemption from any mutual fund investments is also of the same nature of measures by our Govt. Very good efforts. But the other side of the coin is to ease pressures from FII out flows and that is not in our hands.

Markets should come down as time goes on if not this week/month but on the next week/ month. War in world economy is not yet over but in the middle only. After some time only clarity will emerge.

For our markets as the strong recovery of our markets from sensex 10000 and yesterday's Dow +ve closing , Asian markets +ve trading shows we also trade in +ve territory. Nifty levels 3440 - 3650 upside and 3200 down side. If nifty comes below 3200 it will close below 3000.

Let us trade on intra day basis for the week on long side. After markets not sustaining at higher levels i.e., 3650 we may target to trade to down side by buying puts at 3400 level.

To day markets are on long side only. Intra day shorts for small ranges.

CONTINUATION OF FALL...

Markets are at fast unwinding pace by FII till now but to this our mutual funds were also joined because of redemption pressures. High net worth investors are unwinding. Now the entire wind in the markets is unwinding. No light at the other end of the tunnel. Just play to downside. This swing may lead our markets up to nifty 2600 with a pause at 2900 ( may be for settlement pressures).

At nifty 2600 this unwinding may come reduced because of huge value diminishing. Here the late rally may lead up to nifty 3000/3200. From here our journey will be based on fundamental values diminishing and slow journey to market levels up to 2200-2000-1800 nifty over a period of six/ twelve months.

One hope for a bounce is that a double bottom formation at 3200. RBI measures. In this tsunami the measures are not effective from redemption pressures. Hence, if we miss the jerks at 3200 levels we can safely travel up to 2600 nifty may be into next month settlement.

Plan your journey into next month settlement target nifty 2600. Best of luck.

NO CHANGE IN FUNDAMENTALS ?? THEN WHY???

The bounce from nifty 3200 was weeded out yesterday. A 3%  fall from opening highs and closed at 3519.  It is not at all  good for a rally in the markets.  Then why FIIs bought in cash markets and in F&O?.  Why our DII s sold in cash markets?.  In a fall our DIIs helped and rescued our markets from not creating history from lower circuit breaks for two sessions and immediately they turned to selling ... a big question....  Yesterday's F & O data shows lose of nifty premium and huge addition of nifty future to the extent of 18 lacks in a fully drifting market signals further fall is imminent. Call option rates were fully fallen and no demand buying .  Also we have not seen any fear in huge 4100 put positions while markets were up for two days.  This shows that the fall may be imminent. 

One may be in puts at least as a hedging position.  But our destinations are at downside.

SWING REVERSAL AND/OR MORE???

Now that markets took support at nifty 3200 and reversed from there because of our regulator's struggle. International markets were also in the same position.  But, yesterday also our FII sold stocks in cash though they bought in F & O.  Nifty future is in huge premium and also reduced O I a good sign for markets raise.  OK .  Huge rally in DOW, and in other international markets gives hope that this rise may not be for one day or two.  Let us wait and watch whether our FII will stop selling in cash markets.  Our action is that as per retracement levels our markets will go up. Just see the chart for levels for nifty & sensex.  One can buy calls treating the 61% level as target at first.  Latter we will study and decide.

YES IT IS 2900 NIFTY....

Today's trades shows that we have just missed the lower circuit break. May be our operators are feeling any sentiment to go for lower circuit break. O K. Closing of our markets near to lower levels of today's range & the trading of DOW future at present shows that on the next day also we may see very huge lower opening and nifty may touch below 3000. If we assume that our markets take support (very temporarily) at Nifty 2900-3000 one may buy 3400 calls or 3600 calls. This time we may see one /two days +ve closings next week. Latter we don't know.

We are just near to Nifty 2600. A couple of weeks ???????????

Full comments on today's F & O trades will be on the next day.

DON'T THINK --JUST SEE IT

As per previous day's trades I felt that our markets have taken a swing reversal at Nifty 3333 low and closed at 3513.  But the F & O data and the global cues says that don't predict the lows and just see it what ever happens.  Previous day's FM statements and DII buy out resulted in recovery of our markets from lows.  But, will our DII s give the same support today.   We missed the lower circuit yesterday but for today?  ?  ?.   One action from our RBI is another CRR cut & PLR cut ?.

Yes really it is an unprecedented situation in the world and every country has to swallow its part. Let us wait and see what happens on the silver screen ( on the ticker screen) Nikkei is at 10% low presently.  What are the statements for today from our heads?

Another point to observe is that one has to be brave in the catastrophe days and search for opportunities.  I feel that our markets will swing wildly to up side also (range may be 400 pts nifty) in this month but from where it swings is the greatest  discovery.  I fell nifty 3200 is a good support else 2900.  If the bounce is from 2900 it will be strong enough to make our investments i.e., calls  to multiply 5-10 times in 24/48 hours time period.  Let us wait whether we get this chance at Nifty 3200 or 2900. GOD HAS TO BLESS US.

no + ves?????

No analysis is required to our markets.  Just see the world through the window  and sell what ever is valuable.  Buying is only after nifty 2600 reaches. 

In F&O positions still shorts were added.  No reversals were seen.  Hence, the down trend may continue further.  No levels for down side.  When rain stops then come out. Thats all.  No signal to buy calls for short term trades.  One can do trade as per intra day trend.  

A SMALL CALCULATION:

3800-2600=1200/2=600.

3800-600=3200.

I expect one may get a chance of calls trade at Nifty 3200 level.  Hence try to buy nifty 3600 calls at 20-30  in future. OK ??? ?

TSUNAMI SELLING.......

Now the world is under severe pull back of money by FIIs.  It is the climax of the sub-prime crisis.  We can do just seeing than anything.  

Heavy F&O shorts buildup was continued further.  Dow in 4 digits.  Nikkei  also in 4 digits.  But our sensex will also be in 4 digits but a week time more???????.  Singapore nifty was traded at 3460-3500 yesterday/today.  Then what to do?  Our measures of RBI, SEBI may not help to stop tsunami.  Let us wait and watch for any buying of shares.  IN F & O if we hold puts OK.  Even in futures we can short today.  But check out on intra day basis.  If markets closes at Nifty 3400 or below ( 5 % or 10%) then we can try to buy 4800 below 20 for handsome gains.  ALL THE BEST. 

NEAR BOTTOM ???

Yesterday markets were lost heavily and closed nifty at 3818, sensex at 12526.  FII cash selling was -1662 cr, F&O index future shorts 8.8 lakhs, shorts were added in stocks future also. Over all nifty index future + 18.4 lakhs shorts were added. Global cues Dow lost 157 points and closed near bottom even after approval of bail out deal.

We are at new bottom after January 2008 bull market crash for the third time.  Heavy shorts in Reliance future also shows that markets may fall further this time. See the chart  and one can feel that the nifty may correct up to the level of 2600 and that to with in next march/April as the markets were sliding just within the major triangle.  If the markets crosses out and breaks the trend line upward we may think for cash stocks delivery.  Until then we have to wait for markets bottom out and consolidation.  

At present we may wait with our puts. One view is that as the Reliance and some other heavy stocks were sold for delivery with high volume, and this can not be repeated daily, today we may see a little bit recovery in the reliance stock along with market. But if markets break the lower level there is no support near the level.  One may understand that the markets earlier corrected and rose at this zone nifty 3600-2600 in one leg and so this time also markets may fall in one leg. Unless we see intra day bullishness one may wait in puts else if markets go up and trade weakly one may accumulate puts at 3700 level for further fall in shortest future.

No fire works from N-deal???

We are in fix between a little +ve from N-deal and very strong _ve global cues.  Fundamentals are weakening further.  Q 2 results will show this.  Credit crunch & PM statements that we were also to get effected from Global effects were all supporting the prediction of market fall further.  But as our markets are very strongly operated markets (controlled by some strong groups) we are unable to predict whether our markets will fall or take a rally to mesmerize all small investors for grabbing their money further.  

Hence, for today's trades whether to go by global cues and short or wait for a rise due to signing of n-deal on saturday between India & US one has to go by intra day charts.  We can not take risks with the reverse option buying as we are in first week of the month and premium are very high.  But remember that market will fall for this month below nifty 3700.

Rescue efforts

Yesterday, against to the expectations markets were not fallen to -5 or -10 % but the little fall was cleared because of the rescue efforts by statement of FM and SEBI, Fin Ministry statements.  Markets closed again in green nifty at 3921  (+71).  The heavy weights open interests in Futures was having bullish additions.  This will result to the Bullish nature to our markets at least one day or one and half day. Global cues are +ve.  At present, calls are good for intra day trades (Buy and sell 4300 calls on intra day basis) & check for crossing of nifty 4072-4150 levels.  Heavy 3700 put addition (11 lakhs), 4000 call addition (3.7 lakhs) shows that markets may take support at 3600 levels , resistance at 4150 levels.  Let us check for any reversal indications on intra day basis day after tomorrow. 

How many days are the strength of our FM, SEBI statements???.  LIBOR rate peak levels are effecting our companies foreign currency loan.  This will result in long term erosion of profits of our markets.  Fundamentally there is no chance of recovery.  It is sure of breaking of 3700 levels.  Only it is all for time bargaining?.   Let us accumulate 3900 puts at cheaper rates for next weeks trades.