settlement day!!!

Nifty after breaking 5416 level closed at 5398. The outlook turned negative as of now. As seen from more buildup of August call options at 5500 from 5600 the  upper range shifted down. The lower range is also expected at first to touch 5300 level. Relianace sentiment turned down. Target 980 medium term. Banks are required to correct further. Settlement may be around 5320-5350 to 5400. Global cues are negative for tomorrow. Friday nifty has to test 5300 level?

Ready for settlement?

Nifty today reacting to the RBI credit policy closed at 5430. Bullish as of now but no steam. Maximum possibility is that nifty closes above 5400 (may be there itself for settlement with a chance of breaking the 5400 level before the close). As per next month option buildup nifty has to touch both the levels at 5300 and 5600. As the market is not showing more steam as of now it is expected nifty to touch 5300 level first and to rise up ward later. FII data  negative in cash markets for the first time and balanced in F&O. Global cues may not impact the markets for this week. 

Market direction: post 18 K sensex.

Now that sensex crossed 18000 mark and closed above this psychological level on second day too.

Now the events to observe are RBI credit policy, Q1 results analysis. Till now all the results are good. RBI credit policy will be over in a couple of days.

As per F&O data every thing is positive. FII data is positive in cash market segment. Globla cues are turning to positive.  It is expected a positive trading on Monday too but for the next three days of settlement will be flat to downward bias.  Settlement is expected to close at 18K sensex and Nifty 5450-5500 zone.
But, the continuation rally is expected for the next settlement nifty target to 5600 with a stop loss 5300.

Nifty levels for 16-7-2010 : Nifty is in falling channel, support is at 5340 for the day. Bullish above 5400 and bearish below 5325. Break point 5380. Means short below 5380 stop loss same and vice versa.  Global cues are mixed. F&O data is not bearish.

Markets for this week: The nifty for the July series is trading in premium but index is in correction mood. Nifty future added 11+ lac shares. Global cues are not so bullish.
Nifty is in the process of breaking the 5400 barrier, for this the last back walk is going on.  The support levels are 5240-5150. Previous day's trading shows that though the markets corrected the put option prices were fallen from the day's high means the writer is not in worry. Have a bullish view after one/two days back swing for the coming 2 weeks. Wait to have a call option.

NIFTY AT A SMALL CORRECTION STAGE

Nifty yesterday traded as expected up ward though the Inflation data is at higher level and reached resistance levels 5200-5212. Now FII data is +ve, OI data is +ve, bought in cash. As Dow corrected overnight we expect nifty to correct today and may test 5111 maximum. Wait for a chance to buy calls once again. This month target 5290. Next month target 5500.

Now the markets are bullish

Nifty is at 5119. In the month of June markets took upward journey with nifty future discount of 20 points. Due to  this markets were corrected downward and took support at nifty 4935. Now the discount was reduced and all the world markets were weathered for UK problems and took double bottom support in the charts. As seen from FII data and weekly charts markets took up turn. This will be confirmed by nifty breaking 5185 immediately. Then the target for nifty will be 5500 medium term and 5250 short term.

nifty for june

Nifty for June will be as follows. If nifty crosses 5110 then go long with stop loss the same. Else if nifty falls below 5050 then go short with stop loss the same. As per option buildup the nifty swing for June will be 5100 up side to 4800 down side expecting to touch both ends.

Nifty took support at 4850 and bounced up and this will rally up to 5030-5100 before completion of settlement. No major bulishness before nifty crosses 5200. Wait for shorting the market once again.

to rise further

Nifty based on previous day's late recovery and closing at higher level shows that the rise will continue further. Nifty future Open interest added 7+ lakh means long build up. Nifty target will be 5340 initially. Global cues are also strongly bullish.  Important point here to observe is that our FM also gave a statement giving strength to bullish view.
Contra view: IF nifty could not cross 5238 and falls then the upper more may not happen. This may be due to the Inflation figure that is to be released on Friday and triggers major correction linked with week end factor.

range bound !!!

Now that markets cooled off from the previous days huge jump. FII data, F&O data, option writing are showing  that there may not be a big rise now itself.  Global markets are also of the same type.

Nifty may be in the same range in the week 5100-5300.

Spectacular jump

Nifty jumped hugely along with all world indices because of Greece bail out package. This is against to the F&O position buildup. FII data shows shorts covering, F&O data nifty showing short covering reducing the open interest hugely.  Options writing as usual (very high put writing and call covering). However, we may not see continuation rally today. But this rise if crossed 20 day ema 5230 and further nifty has to touch 5424 in future before a big correction.

Nifty if closes above 5230 go further long with a stop loss 5200 target 5400.

weekly review

Now that markets corrected in this week. Nifty touched and bounced one support line. But, as seen from the open interest build up and FII activity and global environment the recovery may not happen immediately though it will be on intraday basis.

Wait for the level of 4865 or two days trading for a bounce. But the run towards yearly high may not be confirmed until nifty crosses 5250.

short term or medium term correction? wait for 4865 breakout

Nifty in this series continues its downward journey and still the situation is weak. Global cues are still weak. It is anticipated further weakness in the coming sessions. Will this lead to short term correction or medium term fall the support at nifty 4865 will say. Wait and watch.

Till then stay in shorts with stop loss nifty 5130.

Market direction

Now, on the first day in the May settlement markets traded up and nifty closed at 5278. But nifty future was in discount means weakness is building in the market.

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   Global cues are negative.
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   FII data is not negative.
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  Nifty futures added with discount means weakness (initially up to testing of 5166 level in first week?)
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   Heavy writing at 5200 put shows that markets have to take support at this level. If this is so with in one week we may see markets to touch 5500 this month.

Opinion: Short nifty below 5160 target 4980 and wait for the markets to test support at this level. Then go long target 5500. Stop loss for shorts will be 5280 it self.

wait for up swing after RBI policy.

Now nifty corrected well up to 50 day ema. 5165 and closed at 5203.  Global cues are flat to +ve. FII data -ve.  Option writings are bearish. But, if nifty crosses 5240 then go long by clearing shorts with stop loss is 5240 it self.

nifty support levels for this correction.

nifty supports: 5230-5125-5040-4954.
nifty resistances: 5280.

Correction to continue...

Nifty is under correction before a breakout as per Sensex close above 18K. Just now SEBI asked FII something which may increase heat. Also RBI credit policy. Hope markets will correct more with a target of 5000.

Nifty range for the coming weeks: down side - 5250-5210-5200-5000. Up side - 5460-5480-5500 and 5700 zone.

A pause in the run up

Nifty yesterday continued to face resistance at 5400 and drifted downwards further. Global cues are +ve. FII data +ve in cash, squared off longs in F&O. Option writings shows heavy build up in 5400 call and 5300 calls and squared off of 5300 puts.   Expectation: Markets will continue the correction further and if nifty breaks 5300 then 5200-4700. Upper level of 5460 is strong resistance even for today.