29-9-09 trading shows that bullishness is unbelievable as markets faced resistance at 5000 zone but nifty closed above 5000 @5007 +48 points.

• Fii data bought in cash, index futures, stocks futures means bullishness.

• F &o data,, 5000 5100 5200 calls added more and put 5000 4900 added. @ 5000 more call buildup.

• Index futures – 2.1 lakhs stocks futures shorts cleared and longs added.

• Nifty 2 days swing up stop loss 4932. Nifty 4920-5020.Support 4980 – 4930-4900.

Overall view: As US markets bounced on previous day it was expected world markets will take support at current levels and the bull phase will continue but yesterday's night Dow closed in red. Asian markets are flat. SGX nifty is in +ve. But as the writings at 5100,5200 calls was increased the rise may not be strong. But FIIs are bullish. Hence, range is 50-50 from 5000 levels. In this situation one can take both call and put at 100 points distance.

But forgetting all technical view is negative only after nifty breaks support line @4830.Till then range bound trading.

Overnight US markets rise reversed my opinion of correction in Indian stock markets. As the Dow is positive now and SGX nifty +ve, Asian markets are in green. More put option writings shows that nifty will rise further and no put buying/shorts as of now.

FEAR OF MAJOR CORRECTION

Now all the world markets are at correction and if falls further this may lead to major correction in all the markets.

• US S&P if falls below 1033 then falls further and the top may be over.
• Like-wise if nifty falls below 4800 we may expect major correction in the Indian markets (medium term) targeting 1117 points correction from 4800.

Means we may expect an attempt to fill the gap up opening of Nifty upper sealing on the eve of Indian Govt elections. Beware of the fall.

My view is buy one lot of nifty put 4900 and stop loss for this is 5050.

24-9-2009 trading and settlement is over with two days jerks and finally after recovering from the opening lows nifty closed at 4986+16 points.

• FII bought in cash further, sold in stocks futures, bought in index futures.
• F&O nifty open interest added over 23 lakhs.
  
• Option writings shows 4900 puts added 16 lakhs (35.8 lakhs) and 5000 calls added 8.8 lakhs (25 lakhs) means bullishness.
  
• US markets were in red.
  
• Global markets are also in red.
  
• SGX Nifty is in red.

Range of big rising wedge 1117 (5036-3919) break out is at 4796, 10 ema=4930, 20 ema=4850, Fibonacci retracement levels 4775,4612,4480,4347,3920.

23-9-2009 trading closed with a jerk to bulls (as expected one time before close of the settlement) and nifty faced the resistance 5030 closed at 4970 -50 points.

• FII data huge buying in cash, selling in stocks and index futures.
  
• F&O nifty oi added 6 lakhs.
  
• Option writings -21 lakhs in 5000 puts and +2.4 lakhs in 5000 calls.
  
• US markets rised and closed in red by loosing 81 points.(Bullish breakout of resistance was weeded out).
  
• Global cues are red.
• SGX nifty is in red.
  

Over all view: today is settlement day and nifty may close between 4900-5000. Rising wedge breakout will be 4820. But parabolic SAR is at 4910. Lower support levels will be 4800-4530-4140(may not anticipate at present situation).

• As per news papers reports World bank is providing loan of $2 Billion to public sector banks (Bullish view from these levels).
  
• Banks are encouraging short term loans as having huge liquidity.
  
• FM statement says-" The Government is keen on continuing with the low-interest rate regime till the signs of global economic recovery become stronger".
  

As is evident from huge buying from fii in cash market (steep increase) and with the other news it is anticipated that the present levels may not be top one and even after some correction we may see higher levels in immediate future. Long term bullish view expecting a new high with in six months.

22-9-2009 trading shows that the controlled rise was still on and nifty closed at 5020+44 points. A close above 5000 created history. Even the settlement jerks to downside were not given till today.

• FIIs bought in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
• Consistent buying by FIIs in cash is a bullish phenomena to be continued.
  
• F&O nifty futures OI 10 lakhs added.
  
• Options writings 5000 puts 9 lakhs added and 5100 calls 8 lakhs added.
• US markets are +ve but Global cues are -ve.
• SGX nifty +ve.

Overall view: Nifty Open interest is concentrated at 5000-5100 and nifty may close in between these levels for settlement. Addition of Open interest in nifty futures is bullish indication and as expected one may buy 5200 calls of next month. (October range is 4800-5300 expecting markets to touch both the levels.)

18-9-2009 trading was range bound with further unwinding of September series and carry over to next month. Nifty traded weak and closed in little green. Nifty is at 4976+10 points.

• FIIs huge buying in cash, selling in index and stocks futures,
• F&O nifty futures over all reduction of OI -6 lakhs means no further rise in this series.
  
• Option writings shows more put writings further.
  
• US markets are -ve,
  
• Global cues -ve to flat.
  
• SGX nifty is -ve.

Over all view: Markets may be in the range bound trades for the settlement. Nifty bullish above 5030 bearish below 4930.But as it is expected continuation of bullishness for the next settlement one can plan for call buying on the settlement day.

17-9-2009 trading shows that the nifty speed was halted at 5000 and nifty closed at 4966+8 points.

• FII bought in cash, sold in index and stocks futures.
  
• F&O data nifty futures Open interest was decreased means rise is stopped.
  
• Option writing shows that nifty is converging at 4900 for settlement.
  
• US markets were at -ve.
  
• Global markets are -ve. SGX nifty -ve.
• Negative divergence in daily charts means correction for this rise is on the way.
  

Over all view: Now that nifty is facing unwinding pressures in the current series and it may end around 4900 +/- 50 points. Very big rise was seen in many stocks which requires considerable correction before further rise. But lower support level is just around 100 points. Let us see how far correction will happen in stocks prices with in the 100 points fall. As the over all sentiment is bullish for Diwali one has to wait and watch for further rise that may be after end the of the current settlement. Markets will be Range bound for the present week and next week.

• As open interest in 4800 put of October (17.8 lakh) is increasing one may expect the markets to correct up to 4800 levels before a big rise.

16-9-2009 trading shows the continuation momentum.

• Nifty closed at 4958+66 points.
  
• FII data, F&O data, option writings are all fully bullish.
  
• US markets and Global cues.
  

• SGX nifty are +ve.

Nothing to look down. But for settlement the markets will be bullish even up to Diwali and as expected one may see Sensex 18000 +.

One can buy calls 5200,5300 of October as of now.

15-9-2009 trading resumed the bullish trend with out giving any lower jerk and nifty closed at 4892+83 points. FII data, F&O data, Option writing all are showing renewed bullishness as of now. US markets, Global markets, SGX nifty are in green. Markets will go up further with intra day jerks. Target 5200-5300 next month.

New posts could not be written because of ill health. And now I am continuing the blog posts.

As seen from the previous day's trading the markets are just passing on the time. Operators target is just absorbing of option premium. Nifty traded a little bit downwards and nifty closed at 4808-21 points. FII data sold small range in cash, sold in index futures and bought in stocks futures. US markets are +ve. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is flat to - ve as of now. Technical indicators are just downing from over bought zone.

Over all view: The breakout of nifty 4730 could not sustain above 4880 and from there markets are drifting downwards. It is expected that nifty may test the 4730 again and take upward journey once again for closing the settlement around 4900 zone.

Alert : Activity is seen in October options 5200-5300 calls and 4400-4500 puts. Hence, markets will make journey to both the levels in the next month.

Some news: list of US banks closed

US recovery difficult as jobless rate hits 9.7

Double-dip recession risk rising: El-Erian

Investors Pulled $4.95 Billion From Equity Funds Last Week, Added to Bonds

I feel that as seen from the above news links one can understand that the problems are not yet over and we may see further bear phase as all the international markets will undergo for double dip recessions. One can not be confident over the stock investments as of now. It is expected 2010 will be in down trend.

3-9-2009 trading shows that though the world, Shanghai were in green our markets positive opening could not sustain and closed at 4594-14 points. (This is because of FII heavy short buildup in index and stocks futures on previous day).

• FII sold in cash, index, stocks futures but to a smaller extent.
  
• F&O nifty future added a round figure of 6 lakhs (?).
  
• Option writings heavy 4700 call and some 4600 put writing shows that range is shrinking.
  
• US markets closed in +ve just for closing.
  
• Global markets are flat.
• SGX nifty is + ve.

• Technical indicators are continuing downward.

Over all view: As nifty is nearing the strong support line ie., nifty 4550 one should be more cautious. As we expected that for the initial activity of options of puts @4500 and calls @4900,5000 at the starting of the series, nifty has to make journey to both the extremes, one side level is reaching means we may expect nifty to rise and reach 4900-5000 in near future, may be in one week. If nifty could not cross 4700 zone in the next week and breaks down side support line of 4550 one can expect the upper level is history.

2-9-2009 trading shows that the range bound trading with negative closing. Nifty closed at 4608.
FII sold in cash, F&O too. F&O data is deletion of positions and addition of shorts in some stocks futures. US markets were in consolidated and in red expected the rise is over.

Over all view: As Global cues are +ve as of now.
Nifty may take support within one or two days to have a considerable rally for over a week. Beware of shorts as of now. Stop loss for longs is nifty 4520.

1-9-2009 trading shows that though the markets tried to break the resistance barrier of 4730 could not make it for closing, loosing its steam nifty closed at 4625-37 points.

• FII sold in cash, bought in index futures, sold in stocks futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added 22.8 lakhs (very heavy?). (Bloom berg data is showing that these additions are by buy orders?)
  
• Options-- huge 4700,4800 calls writing and some 4600 calls writing but huge build up of 4600 puts and good 4700 puts writing too.
• US markets are started drifting.
  
• Global markets are in red.
  
• SGX nifty is in red.
  
• Technical indicators continued the downward journey.

Over all view: As felt the steam for bullishness was not build up at 4730 zone but drifted down with speed. International markets pressures were build up now. Heavy build up in nifty futures was seen with huge addition. Though the heavy put writing over 40 lakhs at 4600 feels support to markets at these levels, if we read linked with nifty futures build up this is all may be for a big fall. Aberration to this is FIIs were still long in index futures. One thing is sure markets will take drastic move from these levels in either direction.
Markets may break 4580 today.

bear phase re-started???

31-8-2009 trading shows that the Shanghai pressures were felt and nifty closed at 4662-70 points.

• FII sold in cash, sold in stock futures but bought in index futures.
  
• F&O nifty futures added further 11 lakhs (continuous addition above 4600 may be to down side), options writings at 4600 puts and 4700 calls.
  
• US markets are weak, Global markets today are at flat and Shanghai too just changing colours at flat.
• Technical indicators turned downwards just now but we have to check them with volume buildup for one or two days.
• SGX nifty is in green as of now.
  

Over all view: As earlier felt the bullish buildup was not seen today also. Means one can confirm that the operators are not interested/able to rise markets from this levels. May be due to the international markets pressures our markets are not able to go up for ever. All the markets are to enter in fresh downward trend (First in this is SHANGHAI)(stop loss is nifty 4750 and sensex 16000 with volumes). If this will be true one can trade some thing (may be nifty futures one lot) to downside for a target of NIFTY 1700-1800 within six months. Carry over shorts for six months to achieve this target. But with some intermediate rises.

DO NOT believe the Green on the screen from now onwards. OR read our markets with international markets.

28-8-2009 trading, the first day of the new settlement, shows that with a small intra-day jerk nifty closed strongly above yearly high 4732 +44 points.

• FII data not yet fully supportive to this with volume build up in F&O.

• The nifty future addition of 13 lakh and option writings are showing positiveness.
• US markets are weak to flat. Global cues may be weak to flat on Monday.
• All markets are ready to fall and to enter fresh bear run led by Shanghai this time.
• Sensex has not yet crossed 16000 mark.
• Though it is strong enough to believe the bullishness one has to be cautious until nifty to cross 4780.
• Volume buildup in F&O by FIIs that may happen on Monday/Tuesday otherwise cannot believe this bull run and one may buy 4300 puts for this month. (Target may be below 4300)
• Bullish Nifty target will be 5000-5100. The technical indicators are also not yet showing reversal.

Be cautious until nifty to cross 4780

GOOD GREEN GOING.

The settlement trading yesterday of nifty shows that bullishness prevailed further though the reports of RBI/FM/Drought, etc. and nifty closed at 4688 +7 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings are all shows green going further. US markets re bounce from red and today's Asian markets green, SGX positiveness all shows the same.

Now, technical indicators are bullish but for the breakout of resistance level of 4731 nifty and that may happen today. The target for nifty in this month is 400 positive points with intermediate corrections. All the corrections are up to 4500 -4600 only. Happy new settlement to you all. There may not be major fall in this settlement please.

settlement pressures..

25-8-2009 trading shows that as expected the markets took a dip but rises well to close nifty at 4659 +16 points. FII data, F&O data, option writings shows that markets will be bullish further. US and Global markets are Mixed as Shanghai is in red again. SGX nifty is in +ve as of now.

Over all view: We are nearing the peak level of 4720 and markets are facing resistance once again (divergence in one hour charts and continuation of fall in Shanghai). But as per option writings markets should close above 4600 and below 4700 for this month. Option buildup in next month series shows that the range is between nifty 4500-5000 (both will be reached). The flow of IPOs shows that markets will rise further.

Hence, the trading on Friday is most important for the trend setting. It is better to have hedging for these three days for the longs/shorts. Dow may corrects for further two days please....

24-8-2009 trading shows that markets opened gap up and continued to close at nifty 4643+114 points. FII data more buys, F&O data long side buildup , more put option writing are showing bullishness and it will continue further. Though there may be some pressure during the days of settlement closing markets will rise well. Huge put 4500-4600 writing shows that settlement closing will be above 4600 and below 4700.

Global cues are that Dow rise was arrested and Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is +ve as of now.

Over all view: If for the sake of settlement markets comes below 4600 buy calls of next month. We can expect bullishness in the first week of next month series.

21-8-2009 trading shows that markets took support at nifty 4400 and closed 4528 +75 points. A good 125 points intra day rise. Dow closed at 10 month's high. FII data, F&O data, Option writings are all showing bullishness to be continued in the coming week. Hence, one may expect a breakout of nifty 4730 in the near future. Don't short in the coming weeks. Upper targets of 5000-5200 may be achieved in the next month.

I continue the blogging intra day through twitter which is on the right side of the page.

20-8-2009 trading shows that markets are preparing to the settlement closure. Nifty in this week traded up and down alternatively and closed at 4453. As seen from FII trading they sold in cash, more buying in index and stock futures. F&O data seen in shifting of nifty futures to next month, option writing shows range is 4500-4400-4300 only. Global cues are US +ve, Asian markets are -ve as of now. SGX nifty is flat.

Over all view: All pressures in international markets were fully absorbed by our operators till now with out breaking nifty 4350. May be the international pressures are over and we are nearing to settlement. Hence, markets are converging to a point that may be 4400-4500. As seen from the weekly chart if we see one lower weekly closing ie., below 4353.45 today we may see a big correction in further weeks. As of today it is only to intra day.

19-8-2009 trading shows that our markets are also corrects now it self before reaching 5000 zone. As the China Markets cues are bearish our markets were felt the same. Nifty closed at 4394-64. FII data is selling in cash, a little selling in index futures but buying in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures added 5 lakhs in Aug series and 12.8 lakhs in Sep series. Option writings 4500 & 4400 calls and 4300 and 4200 puts were added. Huge build up in 4300 put shows markets may at least take support at 4250 range. Now US markets were traded from red to green. Global markets are flat to green. SGX nifty is +30 now.

Over all view: As the markets are at most felt support zone of nifty 4350, one can go long here with stop loss 4350 as more support from our operators is expected here.

18-8-2009 trading created in the minds whether the rise yesterday is just a bounce after major fall or not?. Nifty closed at 4458+71 points. FII sold in cash, index futures but bought in stocks futures. F&O nifty futures is -9 lakhs option writings more puts at 4300-4400. Global cues are just positive. SGX nifty is also +ve.

Over all view: The technical indicators are all showing a fall but markets took support on the trend line. Range bound for today but if markets fall below the nifty 4350/ sensex 15000-14700 we see very big correction up to 12200 sensex. This is the target of rising wedge breakout on the daily charts too. Let us wait for breakout. But rumors in the bazar is that sensex to go up to 19000 in the near term??????

17-8-2009 trading followed the china and lost ground. Nifty closed near to 50 day ema at 4388-192 points. Entire world markets felt the shock. Now, FII data huge selling in cash, little shorts in index futures and stocks futures, F&O data huge build up ie., 20 lakh addition with discount means shorts addition, option writings also huge writings in 4500 calls and even 4400 calls, and huge reduction in 4500 puts and little in 4400 puts but 4300 & 4200 puts were added. Now, DOW was weak, but Asian markets are flat to red. SGX nifty is + 15.

Over all view: As the huge addition in nifty future is worry some and huge call writings, all technical indicators are showing down side the present situation may lead to major fall.

14-8-2009 trading was profit booking after a big rise. Nifty closed at 4580 -25 points. The problem is that nifty future open interest was shed once again about 8 lakhs means no rise in short term?... Addition is required for a continuation of rise of markets. Global markets are all at sliding. FII data, F & O data, options writings are not on greenish side. SGX nifty is at -ve.

Over all view: Nifty short below 4400 and long 4730 for super bearish/bullish. In the mean time only intra day trading.

13-8-2009 trading as expected took huge jump and due to short covering markets closed at 4604+147 points. FII data in cash and futures bullish, F&O data deletion of -14.6 lakh in nifty futures is bullish but the nifty futures should add substantially on Friday for further bullishness. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is +ve.

Over all view: As seen from chart of nifty with fan lines, nifty took support on 50% line (above 50 day ema line) and goes up. The upper level target is 4900 zone may be with in a week. Every one is eager to see the break out of previous high 4730 zone for further bullishness. But I feel this level will be broken on Friday/Monday. Wait with longs up to 4880.

12-8-2009 trading shows that the rising wedge break out target on 30 min chart from 4730 to 4378 was achieved. Markets recovered fully from the morning major fall means bullish view. Nifty closed at 4458-14. FII data sold in cash, more selling in index & stocks futures means -ve view. But F&O nifty oi increase in continuation with previous day's reduction is in +ve view. Option writing is balanced. US DOW in +ve, Global cues +ve, SGX nifty +ve as of now. Downing channel of 30 min candle break out to up side was seen today targeting 4625.

Over all view: As seen from the Global cues, and trading style of the previous two days it is expected that the swing reversal from down side is felt. Fall from nifty 4730 to 4357 is over and markets have to go up. Technical indicators on 30 min, 1 hour charts are reversed but on daily charts one more day is required to precipitate the bullishness.

One can go long buy calls stop loss nifty 4360. Target to up side will be above 4700-...

Retracement level from 30 min chart: 4500-4545-4590-4625.

11-8-2009 trading shows weak opening, taking support at 4400 and a rally up to 4510, but before closing a big correction and finally closed at 4471 in green. FII sold in cash, balanced in index futures, bought in stocks futures, F&O nifty sheds oi, option writings 4300-4400 puts, 4500-4600 calls were added. Global cues weak, SGX nifty is in red.

Over all view: Let us see weather markets takes support at 4320-4280 and bounce back. If 4280 broken then entire view will be bearish.

10-8-2009 trading shows that though the markets opened up due to positive global cues corrected further continuously up to nifty 4226 and later bounced back in to positive territory once again. Then again the selling pressure continued which aggravated at the closing time to the lower levels of 4400. Nifty closed at 4438 -44 points down.

FII selling in cash -> weakness, buying in index & stocks futures -> alert, F&O data nifty future added in the down market -> weakness, option writings in addition to 4400 calls addition 4400-4300 puts also added -> balanced. SGX nifty +ve, Global cues : Dow - ve, Asian markets +ve.

Technical indicators are required one more day correction for showing fully oversold signals. Nifty support levels are 4325-4260-4230 and resistance 4576-4588 (5 &10 day sma)

Over all view: As the US fed in at 2 day meeting now, one may expect some reversal on Wednesday onwards in our markets. Wait for reversal signals as of now. Try to buy 4500 call at Rs60/- for very huge gains in this month.

7-8-2009 trading continued the downward journey and nifty closed at 4481-105 points. FII data, F&O data, option writing shows that weakness is building up and it will take some more days to reverse the markets to bullishness. But as of now Global cues and SGX nifty are all showing positiveness. Hence, one may expect a +ve opening of our markets but.... tomorrow/ later we may see further fall to finally reach the oversold zones before markets swings to up side. I expect markets should touch nifty 4320-4220-4230 level support line before a big bounce. Before that all other rises are a part of game!...

Nifty levels : stop loss for the positions are previous day's levels.

6-8-2009 trading gave a very strong resistance impact at 4730 by dipping the market beyond the support trend lines....nifty closed at 4586-109 points. Technical indicators are turned to down side. Fii data, F&O nifty future addition, option writings shows the fall may continue further today. Global cues are -ve and SGX nifty is also -ve as of now. The rising wedge base levels of nifty 4420 on 30 minute chart may be tested in the worst case but there is a chance of bounce in between also. Let us wait and see the support zones. In sensex terms 15300-14900 are support levels. Keep the shorts up to the levels and later one can study ie., on Monday's trading for up side journey.

5-8-2009 trading also disturbed the traders whether to short or long in the markets. Markets corrected very well but closed in green at the end. Nifty is at 4694+14 points. FII data, F&O data nifty future added 9 lakh shares, option writings are showing positive bias. SGX nifty is in red. Global cues are +ve except US markets which were in red yesterday.

Over all view: Technical indicators are still not at fully over bought. Hence there is room for further highs but as we are waiting for good correction over 200 points at a stretch market is not so to give at once. No view for swing reversal immediately, only intra day trading.

4-8-2009 trading as expected faced resistance at 4720 zone at the opening trades and slides down to day low nifty 4640 and closed at 4680 -31 points. FII data a little bit negative, f&o data nifty future sheds 18 lakhs shares dangerous???, option writing nifty range is in between 4600-4700. Global cues are slightly positive, SGX nifty +ve.

Over all view: I have expected a small correction at this level to the extent of 150-200 points and bounce of markets to new highs of 5000-5200 in this month. As expected markets are showing resistance at 4720 zone, hence one can go short at this level stop loss 4750 and go long at 4511.

Nifty may take support 4655-4636-4617-4511.

3-8-2009 trading continued its journey to up side and nifty closed at 4711 +75 points. FII data, F& O nifty data, option writings are showing continuation of bullishness. Top end of raising wedge on 30 minutes chart was reached i.e., at 4720.

Demand for 4900-5000 calls was picked up. Now as per sensex market is just at 16000 and may require a little correction at this zone. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is + ve.

Over all view: Longs alert as expected there may be a small correction with in 1 to 2 days before markets start rising to final destination. One may try to book profits in calls with in 2 days. Nifty target to up side is max 100 points before a reversal.

31-7-2009 trading shows that the markets are continuing the rally and nifty closed at 4636+65 points. Though there was slide at the evening the markets pulled up with a jerk. This shows that the targets are at up side as of now. FII data, F&O nifty, option writing shows positiveness. Global cues are not positive but slightly negative. SGX nifty is in - ve as of now. The rising wedge on 30 minute charts target may be 4720 and if falls target may be 4425. But in between there are strong supports at 4600 - 4550 -4500. As of now there were no short side build up and option sales has not yet completed. Hence, as the final target of the month is to up side market will fall one time and tempt the traders to short and then finally markets lead to up side for the targets 4880-5200-etc.

First alert 4615-4580 to down side but do not trade to down side. As markets may correct at 4720-4750 one can wait for down side trade just for 100-150 points fall only.

new settlement - bullish

The closing day of settlement was bullish and nifty closed at 4571. Global cues are bullish. FII data, F&O data, option writing all are bullish. Nifty swing from 4500-4700-4880 expected. If nifty closes below 4600 then only we can think differently.

Settlement pressures

29-7-2009 penultimate day of settlement met with huge swing to down side over 150 points and a good recovery. Nifty closed at 4514-51 points.

FII data (over 25 lakhs nifty selling means - ve.), F&O nifty future addition(read with FII data means - ve.), option writings (more put writings means +ve.). Global cues are resisting to negativity (How much time?). SGX nifty -ve. Technical indicators are just turned to downward.

Over all view: Today is settlement day. Now that markets yielded to the resistance faced for 4 days. Is it just for settlement or for further fall? That is to be assessed on Friday's trading. Support levels are at nifty 4250 zone and bullishness is good only after nifty crossing 4600 level. In between it is only for intra day. But beware of shorts by FIIs which may lead to further fall. Will the Shanghai Composite jerk on yesterday be a trigger for a major fall in all international exchanges or a scattered one.

Alert: downward bias for the two days please.

28-7-2009 trading shows that the selling pressure is being absorbed to keep the markets at a high and to pull up further as a time bound target. Nifty closed at flat 4564-8 points. Fii data, f&o data, option writing shows that markets won't fall now, though the technical indicators are at over bought levels.

Over all view: If nifty crosses 4600 fully bullish targeting 5200 in the next month. And if nifty brakes the 4450 level then only weakness. But advantage bulls.

27-7-2009 trading was in line with the expectation just in the range before settlement closing. Nifty was range bound and closed flat at 4572+3 points. FII data, F&O data, option writing all are still positive.Global cues are not negative. RBI policy release today may give some jerks to the markets on intra day basis and markets may consolidate for settlement closing after giving about 100 points jerks today.

Over all market view is not changed from bullish view.

24-7-2009 trading showing bullish run after giving a little shifting correction up to nifty 4380 three days back. Now nifty closed at 4569 +45 points. FII data F&O - ve and +ve in cash buying, F & O future next month addition 13 lakhs at high level ???., option writing nifty range is 4500. SGX nifty is +ve now. Global cues + ve.

Over all view: As seen from technical view the markets are bullish and with some adjustments for settlement markets will continue the journey to up side targeting nifty 4800-4880-5000-5200 with intermediate correction. As seen from Reliance result and RBI policy data one may expect a little bit correction coinciding with settlement that to may be up to nifty 4500-4450-4500-4550 zone only. All technical indicators are bullish.

23-7-2009 trading was very strong reversal to the previous day's trading and even F & O additions are +ve. Nifty closed at 4514 +125 points. Global cues are + ve.

View: Markets will rise very well from now. Though mkts adjust for some time due to settlement over all view is + ve up to nifty 4880-5200-5400 with intermediate correction. Target time zone is 2nd week of August.

22-7-2009 trading as taking +ve cues from global markets took very strong rise up to 4560 and fell sharply to break 4400 level. Nifty closed at 4400 -70. FII data - ve, F & O nifty future is flat, option writing is - ve. Global cues are - ve. But SGX nifty is + 40 as of now.

Over all view: Now, that market is in shifting stage and nifty may corrects up to 4360-4300-4250-4150 -4050 also? We have to wait and see What happens. The first 2 or 3 levels may happen but if nifty goes down further there is danger for bull rally. Will the markets corrects further as seen from +ve SGX nifty as of now?????

21-7-2009 trading shows that as expected market took rest and FIIs started selling in cash. Nifty closed at 4469-33 points. FII data, F & O data, option writing are little bit positive bias. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is + ve.

Over all view: As we have just started shifting correction this may run for another 2 days. One may expect further drifting of nifty up to 4300 level for further rise. If nifty won't correct to that extent in this week there may not be bullishness in the next week.

20-7-2009 trading shows that the target is reaching within one day and nifty is just to the resistance level 4550+/-20 zone. Nifty closed with uninterrupted rise at 4502 +127 points. FII data positive, F & O data balanced. Option writing is + ve. Global cues fully positive.

Over all view: As expected the markets may reach 4700 for this settlement. If market gets little bit correction(shifting correction over 150 points during this week) and starts rise again one may see continuation of rise during the next month settlement. Target as per sensex below 18000 and in nifty 5200-5400 zone. Markets will get correction before nifty crosses 4600. Hourly chart of nifty and RSI expects correction now.

Beware : If market corrects beyond 200 points from higher level then only the view will gets reversed to bear advantage.

17-7-2009 trading shows that markets took huge jump crossing the resistance level of 4360 also and nifty closed at 4375+144 points. FII data, futures data, option writing, global cues are positive. As seen from FII longs buildup in index futures to the extent of 15 lakhs the markets are expected for rise even from this level. As expected earlier the markets may give huge profits to 4700 calls but before reaching that target we may see two to three days side ways/downward correction 100-150 points correction at shifting time of F & O. This may be in the 2nd part of the week. Then one can plan to buy calls 4600. Nifty has to come out of the rectangle in the chart either to go up or go down. Nifty levels in a broader view is more bullish above 4520 ( after some correction) and down below 4200-4150.

s2=4171 s1= 4273 p= 4331 r1= 4433 r2= 4492

16-7-2009 trading as expected took resistance at nifty 4305 and traded to down ward with a flat closing at 4231. Even the second half of trading rise was also weeded out.Global cues are not -ve but not strongly +ve. FII data in cash and futures was range bound , F&O data longs cleared in nifty futures, options writings is to bullish side and potentiality is 4300 + . Entire F & O build up is just concentrated at 4300 level but as we have 10 trading sessions further, the markets will swing from this point also minimum 200 -300 points either way but as per Friday's trading one can predict the swing is to which direction. As per GANN Fan chart nifty should cross 4240-4260 for bullishness which may lead to new highs in nifty 4700 +. Else ABRAKADABRA.

15-7-2009: Due to some technical problem at me I could not post my views yesterday. Nifty closed at 4234+122.

The swing reversal from nifty 3920 is rising well with a good steam and it will continue even today as the FII data, F&O data, option writing, global cues, SGX nifty all are showing greenish. The view to determine is the range to which the steam will take the markets at present. My view is if markets crosses nifty 4320 zone where there will be some jerks to weed out weak hands from longs then we will see nifty 4700++ in this settlement it self. Let us wait and watch on the ticker screen the remaining story.
Over all view: Wait for a jerk and try to buy calls for handsome gains in this settlement.

13-7-2009 trading shows that markets might have reached the temporary support level and the support level of rising wedge on daily charts from nifty 4693 to 3930. Nifty closed at 3974-30.point after taking support at 3920. Also markets closed at high end of the day. Global cues are + ve. FII data in cash sold, in index future shorts, in stocks futures bought means balanced as of now. F & O nifty futures - 2.72 lakhs a small range of short covering. Option writings are more calls written.

Over all view: As the present market took support at nifty 3920 i.e., support level of the rising wedge and globally +ve signs are visible now it is expected that this +veness may be for 2 days and minimum rise will be up to 4120.

10-7-2009 trading shows that the weekly closing was at the lowest around -10%. Nifty closed at 4004-77 points. This is the trend after and break of neck line of H & S formation on the daily charts. OK. Every thing ie., FII cash sales, F & O data nifty future addition, option writings all shows weakness to continue further. SGX nifty, Global cues, Crude, commodities prices are too falling.
Over all view: Continue with shorts or puts for further fall. Indicators are yet to complete their downward journey. Nifty levels:3930-3550. But the question is whether the entire fall will be in one go or there may be a bounce at once.

9-7-2009 trading was like consolidating the positions at the level after a fall of 100 points. It was a flat closing day means the positions in F & O might be reversed to make a big swing once again. But now the event is Infosys results. Bulls active only after nifty crosses 4165. Till then shorts are valid. But the point of feeling is whether the markets will fall continuously now or take a pause and a small up swing before a big fall.

FII data sold in cash, but a small buying in index/stocks futures.F&O data nifty future is -8.3 lakhs means shorts cleared???? options writing is a little bit downward bias. Global cues are not +ve. SGX nifty is - ve now.

Over all view: Event along with week closing will lead to some big swing today but it is based on the swing given by Infosys results.

8-7-09 trading shows that the neck line of h & s decisively broken and nifty closed at 4079 -123. FII data(shorts in index futures but bought in stocks futures), F&O data, option writing all are showing negativity. FII sold in cash. Global cues are not strongly + ve. Dow in green overnight and green for the next trading also. SGX nifty is just + ve.

Over all view: daily, hourly, 30 minute charts indicators are all require 1 to 1 and half day's down for fully over sold and reverses. Down ward support levels are 3980-3950-3930 and bounces up to 4130 only. Markets may rise based on the event G-8 summit statements/Infosys results.

7-7-2009 trading shows that markets took a pause after big fall. Nifty is at 4202 +36. Now, FII data, F&O data, option writings are + ve. But the global cues are - ve. SGX nifty is - ve. Today the neck line of h & s is to be broken means severe fall in future. So, the situation is confused whether markets fall continuously or take a little pause to reverse the positions of FII s from long to short.

Over all view is short and wait with a stop loss is 4200.

post budget...

6-7-2009 trading on budget day was at - 5%. Nifty closed at 4163 -261.   FII data most negative. Nifty future o i + 6 lakhs means addition of shorts.  Option writing is negative.  Global cues are not + ve. Forget what the budget is but the markets reacted most violently and tanked down. 

The Head and shoulder formation on the daily charts is true now and the neck line is broken and markets closed at the line.  The expected trend reversal to be happened over a week happened in one go.  O K.  Now, the calculation is all to down side. The target for nifty to down side is 3500 may be in 3 weeks or in two months. Whether you trade today or wait for a little bounce the trading should be to down side until markets tests the bottom or we see a major buildup in the F & O segment.  Any stop loss to the shorts/puts is nifty 4250. 

Budget day ....

3-7-2009 trading ie., the day of Railway budget shows that the markets took a bullish view in the second half of the day and nifty closed at 4424 +75. Today is budget day. As seen from previous day's trend along with FII data, F & O data, option writings are showing a bullish view. This may lead to a up swing further even after budget.

A precaution: If markets rises and cannot take the steam to the next day then there is a chance of forming the right shoulder in the daily chart and markets may took down ward journey for the medium term. The time to the downward break is 13 - 7 - 2009.

2-7-2009 trading shows that the eco survey created big swing in market. Nifty closed in flat at 4349 + 8.  FII data is + ve in cash, just flat in F & O, open interest in nifty future is - ve means shorts gone out of the system.  Option writings are balanced. 

Global cues are -- ve and SGX nifty is in red now.  As every one derives + ve views from the eco survey and the clearance of some shorts from the system shows markets are poised for a big rally linked with the budget reports. But as it is seen from very - ve global cues our markets may open in red and gets preparation for a big jump on Monday.

Nifty levels below 4280 down and above 4350 up.

budget build up....

1-7-2009 trading: The week trading shows that markets are creating some euphoria to the event of BUDGET. Nifty took support at 4250 zone and closed in + ve at 4341 +50.

FII data is - ve but some buying in cash. F & O data is balanced. Option writing is also balancing. Global cues are + ve. SGX nifty is +ve.

Present the market direction is 50-50. Nifty short below 4300 stop loss 4350. Long above 4350 stop loss is 4300. As premiums are very high one can get good trades after budget event. Let us wait.

30-6-2009 the last day of the quarter made many worried by loosing steam. Markets opened in green and lost 100 points to close nifty at 4291. FII data, F & O data 6.5 lakhs addition in nifty future and addition of shorts in many stocks , Option writing all are negative. FII cash buying is +ve. Global cues are negative. SGX nifty which was at -50 yesterday late trading , now trading at flat.

Head and shoulder in daily charts.

Will the right shoulder be completed for further fall in the markets? Wait for two days. To break the right shoulder to down(nifty 4170-4150 to be broken) there should be one big gap down within one week.

Over all view: One to 1 and half day red may be seen further. Nifty 4250-4218-4170-4150 all are hurdles. If markets wants to attract common man's shorts into the system markets have to break all the levels noted above. Then only markets will jump up remarkably to show any goodness of the coming budget. Will it happen?

29-6-2009 trading shows that markets took speed in rising up though it closed with a jerk. Nifty closed at 4391+15 points. All technical indicators are to + side. Global news is + side. All Indian analyst's opinion is +ve. FII data + in cash, - in index & stocks futures.Nifty futures -3.2 lakhs means not +ve but not - ve as very build up is seen in f&o which is insufficient to force the market down with speed. F & O writings are balanced with nifty range from 4300-4600.SGX nifty is +ve now.

Over all view:
Last hope for big bearish head & shoulders on day chart will be nifty should be below 4465. Else bullish and markets will see new highs and even bullish for the entire July series?. Bears attack will be nifty below 4315.

26-6-2009 trading shows that the first day closing shows a bullish view in the market by closing nifty above 4350 ie., 4375+133 points. FII data is + ve in index futures and - ve in stocks futures. F & O data is + ve  and option writing is +ve by writing more puts at 4300-4200 range.

Global cues are flat. SGX nifty is flat. 

Over all view: Being the preceding week of budget sudden movements may be expected as there may be some news/views about budget.  As role overs in F&O are minimum the bulls are not strong and may be at wait&watch policy.  +/- 100 points swing in nifty may be expected in this week. 

25-6-2009 trading which is settlement day shows that markets closed in red against to the view. Nifty is at 4242 -51. Now, the first day of F & O data can not indicate more but FIIs sold more than buys. Global cues are +ve. SGX nifty is +50. Option writing shows that more put writing at 4200 may give support at this level. Market is expecting pre-budget rally.
Over all view: Markets will open in green but at the closing there may be weakness. But nifty below 4250-4150 is more dangerous.

24-6-2009 trading shows that markets are moving further higher for settlement. Nifty closed at 4293+46 points.  FII data, F & O data, option writing all are to + ve side.  Global cues are not so  + ve.  For today's settlement markets may rise up and nifty close above 4300.

22-6-2009 trading shows that due to very weak global cues our markets continued down trend and opened lower but immediately rises up. Later showed more volatility and closed in green nifty at 4247 +12 points. FII data is more shorts in index future, stocks future, more selling in cash. F & O data is +36 lakhs addition in nifty future next month. (net 9 lakhs). Global cues are still negative.
Over all view: Due to settlement pressures nifty may close around 4200 + . As per 2 previous days trading more role over is going on. If markets stays in green for today markets may reach 4330 else down.

10 ema=4340; 20 ema=4330; 50 ema= 4040.Support 4092. above 4227, 4249 (and above yesterday's high bullish).

22-6-2009 trading though opened in positive reversed from mid day and closed in negative. Now FII reversed some more shorts and all data with global cues are - ve. Markets may corrects further to 4100-4050-4000 and bounce in this settlement up to 4300 only. One may try to buy calls 4200 around 15 either today/tomorrow.

19-6-2009 trading shows that markets took support at 4202 range and bounced up to close in green at 4314+62.  FII data, nifty futures shows that the fall may stop here and markets may rise a little bit. Global cues are not supporting fully to a raise. News from Govt is expected for further rise in markets. Option writings are indicating range bound.  All FII shorts were not cleared. Means we may see further fall in this settlement it self. Then markets may close below 4000 for settlement. Steam like earlier bounces is not seen this time.   SGX nifty is negative now.

Over all view: If markets fall first and test 4200 at first instance then we may see a bullish closing for settlement around 4400.  Else if markets face resistance at 4350-4400 and falls then the closing will be around 4100-4000. Take decision by intra day swings. BUT ANYTHING MAY BE POSSIBLE.

18-6-2009 trading continued the down trend and nifty lost another 105 points and closed at 4251. FII data in cash, index future, stocks future is on down side even today. DII bought in cash. over all nifty futures added another 11 lakhs shares, may be further shorts. Down fall continues. Option writings also shows the further fall. Global cues are not negative, SGX nifty is +25 points.

Over all view : Just seeing the break of raising wedge in the daily chart the half way is 4300 that is broken and then 100 % is at 3925. In between there are some trend lines. Will they give support? Wait for reversal of the market and try to buy calls, may be today. Buy nifty 4300 call @ 18-23 range for 10 times profit in the next week.

Nifty down levels: 4210-4185-4150-4100-3925.

17-6-2009 trading shows the result of the FIIs huge short positions on the previous day. Though the markets rise from opening lows to zero level later took dive to close at nifty 4356 -162. (Every thing in one day?).  

FII data in cash, index future are on short side and it seems FII s added further shorts to the extent of 29.5 lakhs in index futures though they were balanced (intraday) in stocks futures side.  Levels were not yet reached. DIIs bought in cash segment.  Global cues are not positive. All technical indicators are to down side. SGX nifty flat to little bit positive. 

Over all view: Though our Govt/news is not + side and SGX nifty on + side markets may not turn up as a final go today.  Still down side journey is there as seen from FII positions in index futures. One can wait for Friday mid day to buy any calls.  Target trade to buy calls nifty 4300 atRs 40/-.  

For today wait and see for weakness in intraday charts and play to down side only.

Downward levels for nifty are     4285  -   4177  -   4155  -   4102  -   4092  -   3930.

16-6-2009 trading shows that the markets took support around 20 day ema line and bounced up. Nifty closed at 4518. This shows that markets are to go up side. But,this is wrong.

FII data more cash selling, more index future selling, more stocks futures selling means very big buildup in shorts. F & O nifty futures added 11.5 lakhs, probably shorts.This is most dangerous and the markets though go up due to any reasons one should not trade to long side. My view is to buy nifty 4600 put at every 50 points rise till Friday.

If markets won't fall before Friday we may see very big down fall in the next week and we may see negative closing for settlement.

FII pulse is sufficient for today's analysis. Enjoy down fall target may be nifty 4300-4100 and even 3900 for this month.

ABRAKADABRA.

Nifty levels : Go long nifty above 4540 and go short below 4480.
Pivot : 4496.

15-6-2009 trading shows to continue the weakness and falling from the rising wedge in the daily charts. May be RIL-RNRL case is one factor. Nifty closed -99 @4484.  Technically markets will correct further. RSI was below 70. But as per F & O data there were no major shorts build up means bouncing from lower levels is very strong but one has to catch it perfectly.  Last 15 minutes heavy call buying and put selling was seen across the board.  FII data negative, F & O data is weak but not negative, option writing is downward biased. The target for the wedge break out will be nifty 4300-4100. But cutting the previous week low 4380 is not easy. Let us wait and see what happens. Global cues are negative SGX nifty at present is -99. 

Over all view:  On many occasions markets gave profits on up side jumping and so one has to catch the chance of buying calls may be 4700 in single digits. Don't trade short side and wait for buying calls.....

12-6-2009 trading shows that markets faced resistance at 52 week high and 4693. Nifty closed at 4583 (-54) points.  

FII data is positive, F & O data is not positive  but may not fully negative . Option writing shows markets may be range bound for 2 - 3 days.

Over all view: wait for a good correction in these two days and try to buy 4700 calls at lower levels for big jump in index beyond 4700 and may be up to 4880 in this settlement.

11-6-2009 trading shows that markets could not cross the previous days high and broken 4600 level in the morning session. But later markets came up and in the evening nifty closed in red at 4637-17 points.  FII data, F & O data, Option writings are all showing positive signals.  Global cues are also positive.  Any correction is short lived till now. We are nearing the budget session and q1 results.  

Over all view: nifty may go up and one can buy calls in the intraday corrections. If nifty won't cross previous highs even at 1 o' clock and showing weakness (adv/dec) one can short and wait for monday trading.

10-6-2009 trading shows that markets opened gap up and traded there itself. Nifty closed at 4655+104 points. FII data, F & O data, option writings are positive. Global cues are just flat. View is positive.

Over all view : As per huge put option writings markets may go up further. All the corrections are to the extent of 250 points.

9-6-2009 trading shows a big reversal and may lead to further rise in the markets. Nifty closed at 4551 +121 points. FII data, F & O data, option writings are all positive. Global cues are not negative. View is positive as nifty once again took support at 10 day ema line even by breaching for 50 points. Now one can think of short if markets come down 4450 once again. Go long as of now.

nifty resistance 4656 + 20.

wait for confirmation...

8-6-2009 trading shows that markets reversed and took direction downward. What was build last week by FIIs was effected now. Though expected this reversal at the moment it was happened so immediately by not touching the magic figure of nifty 4650. Now, every thing is towards downwards. FII data, F & O build up , option writings, many heavy weight scripts looking towards downwards. But, as our markets are fully controlled ones let us wait for weed out of up swings that will happen today just to trap the small investors for buying calls. Now SGX nifty is trading + 50 points.

Over all view:
As expected the peak of 4630 is stop loss for mid term run. Today we are on 10 day ema line. On earlier occasions markets took this point as support. Will it fail this time.? May be, wait for one more day for observing the F & O movements. Stop loss for shorts may be 4500. If markets could not cross this level on closing basis the correction may be beyond 2 weeks.

First one can go long with stop loss is 4430 the 10 day ema point.

Creating a peak in mid-term...

5-6-2009 trading shows that markets are at unprecedented rise by closing 13 week in positive. Nifty closed at 4587 + 14 points. By observing the angle of rise in the long term charts one can feel that markets are nearing to a peak and when will it reverses is the present question. Generally every one feels for a correction as per price movements but the operators are strongly pulling the prices up. Liquidity is more even today. All the parameters are for positive direction. But sure the reversal from this level is not small one. One can see 1/3 of the entire rise i e., 700 points in nifty. 

Over all view: Long nifty until one can see huge call option writings and put option open interest reduction.  Nifty may rise max 1 and half a day.  Resistances 4650-4750-4850-4880.

4-6-2009 trading made a +ve break out after forming double bottom at nifty 4450 and finally nifty closed at 4573 (+ 42) points and BSE sensex closed at magic figure of 15009.

F & O: nifty future added +10 lakhs, Option writings: puts were written more than calls, FII data: - ve with buying in cash market. More shorts in stock futures even in index futures today. DII sold in cash markets?. Global cues + ve. SGX nifty + ve. This week is 13 th +ve closing. Then what about next week? Which will triger for selling? We do not know as of now. From now on wards longs are dangerous... That's all..

Over all View: +ve for opening and later if markets could not cross 4650 then short and wait. Stop loss for shorts will be 50 points up side. Previous top for weekly closing is 4649.5. If FII short build up is for certain reason we may see a good correction in the next week.

3-6-2009 trading is at consolidation/reversal mood and nifty closed at 4531 +5. FII data is just positive in index futures and cash buying but they continued more selling in stocks futures. More stocks are at reversal path. F & O data is nifty future - 4.9 lakhs and more put writings than call writings means markets may go up further. But as the over all build up is less and this is only 1 st week any thing may happens to the markets. (first go down and build up longs else vice versa). Global cues are not positive.

The positive point is President's speech in the joint parliament session today. Some thing may be spoken about the economic reforms that may leads to upper swing in the markets.

Over all view:
nifty long above 4570 or short below 4470. If falls below that nifty may correct up to 4320-4350.
Upper side 4650-4750-4850.

s2=4432 s1=4481 p=4528 r1=4577 r2=4624

2-6-2009 trading shows that markets corrected a little bit and recovered well. Nifty closed at 4525 -5 points. FII data is negative.It is 3rd day of FIIs are on sell side. F & O data not so directional ( still the positions were not build up).

Global cues are positive. SGX nifty is just positive.

Over all view: Markets are on side ways. Nifty levels are long above 4532 (target 4650-4750) and short range up to 4430-4390. More trading decisions are to be done as per intra day positions.

s2=4386 s1= 4456 p = 4521 r1=4591 r2=4656

1-6-2009 trading shows that the rise continues further by crossing 4500 levels very easily. Nifty closed at 4533 + 84 points. F & O data positive further, FII data positive in index futures but negative in stocks futures ( even on previous day) means initial signals for reversals. DIIs are net sellers in cash???. FIIs are net buyers in cash. Option writing shows that more puts at 4500 were written means there is room for rise. No major build up in over all f & o data and before a fall this should be increased. Perhaps the operators are of the opinion to build up the short positions at further higher levels? Global cues are positive and SGX nifty is +ve. Nifty levels 4650-4800-4900. Nifty 4500 is becoming major support.

Over all view: Go long in every intra day correction target as above with stop loss 4500.

s2=4414 s1=4472 p=4509 r1=4567 r2=4604

to rise further....

29-5-2009 trading shows that the bullishness continues. Nifty closed at 4449 + 112 points. Every thing is positive and continues further for some time. One can trade for two more days long side. Later the correction will also not be bigger one.

FII data, F & O data, option writing all are positive. Further call writing is required before markets take correction.

Over all view: Trade long nifty up to 4550-4650 levels.

s2=4278 s1=4363 p= 4426 r1= 4511 r2=4573